Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Rise Is Still Ahead!

Bitcoin is undergoing correction after the recent rise. However, the asset’s price didn’t hit the level of 25000 just yet. Bitcoin might gain the required support at the level of 22500 and potentially jump further. So, let’s wait and see what is going to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-rise-is-still-ahead-06022023"
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CADJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistance

TitleCADJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistanceTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CADJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support for buys. Price could then head towards the overlap resistance.It's worth noting that the support level is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cadjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-overlap-resistance"
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Dollar Major Recovery Becomes a Real Risk After a Surprisingly Strong US Payrolls Report

US equities posted a good performance on Thursday, with the SPX almost testing 4200 points and NASDAQ jumping 3.56%, very close to 13000 points, the highest level since the end of August. The FOMC meeting was a nothingburger with the FOMC statement and Powell comments indicating a strong bias towards a much less hawkish stance, which could open the way to new local highs this year, but Friday Payrolls report thwarted the bullish outlook for risk assets. Also, the market rebound on Thursday was not reflected in a corresponding decline in Treasury yields: despite the rise in equities, the 10-year bond yield hovered very subduedly around 3.35%, the level that formed after the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Thus, speculative momentum could join the rise in the stock market, which should make it more vulnerable to a pullback in the event of bearish catalysts.Gold price, despite an initial rise after the FOMC, plunged on Thursday, leaving many questions about the investors’ take on the FOMC meeting. Since gold returns are a function of the real interest rate (the lower the expected rate, the higher the value of gold, all other things being equal), gold collapse suggests that the Fed meeting did not provide a convincing argument that real US rates will go down in 2023, including through the transition of the Fed to a soft policy.The shocking Non-Farm Payrolls report today brought back a 50 bp Fed rate hike to the list of possible scenarios at the next meeting! Job growth more than doubled the forecast - 517K (expected 185K). The previous Payrolls figure was also significantly revised upwards to 260K. Wages in annual terms accelerated to 4.4%:The release of the report caused a sharp strengthening of the dollar, the index of the US currency jumped by more than 0.5%, and the yield of the 10-year bond returned to the level of 3.5%. Gold collapsed:Strong Payrolls report, in my opinion, will significantly complicate further rally in the risk assets market, since the outlook for lower Fed rates in the second half of 2023 was the driver of bull run. Now, market participants may seriously consider that instead of a single rate hike, the central bank will deliver more or move to “large-caliber shells” (a 50 bp increase) as a strong labor market can generate inflation longer, which may require a longer central bank intervention. On the other hand, the report showed that the US economy is in excellent shape and maintains the momentum of expansion, which allows investors to revise growth outlook for US firms, and hence their expected yield. As one can see, the risk assets market will now be affected by two factors: one positive, in the form of a strong economy, and one negative, the Fed's later transition to a neutral policy setting.The most likely market scenario next week is a moderate downward correction of risk assets and extension of the dollar rebound, these trends may sharply intensify in the event of a re-acceleration of inflation in January. The January CPI will help to clarify this risk.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-major-recovery-becomes-a-real-risk-after-a-surprisingly-strong-us-payrolls-report"
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Which supermarket is the cheapest?

With food inflation hitting almost 17%, we look at which is the cheapest supermarket, plus the Competitions and Market Authority’s plan to introduce unit pricing to help cut costs.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605678/the-cheapest-supermarket-food-inflation
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After slumping 42% last year, what's next for Scottish Mortgage?

After a spectacular couple of decades, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust fell by 42% last year. We take a look at the trust's performance and discuss what's next for the business.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/604911/should-you-buy-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust
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FOMO Friday: World Stocks Rally Following Central Bank Updates

MSCI Makes New GroundIt’s been a busy week for markets across the board this with plenty of volatility to enjoy and with the NFP still to come, there might still be more volatility yet. With plenty of action in US earnings as well as the February FOMC, BOE and ECB meetings, we’ve seen a number of big moves. Chatting with traders ahead of the weekend, however it seems the big move that most are focused on ahead of the weekend is the more than 14% rally in the MSCI world shares index. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If not? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Further Fed PivotThere have been two big drivers behind the move higher in the world shares index this week. The first is the developments we’ve seen in the central bank landscape. The Fed pivoted on rates again this month, opting for a lower .25% hike. Along with this, the bank sounded more constructive on inflation, noting that the disinflation process had started, with traders now eyeing just a further .5% worth of hikes before tightening comes to an end. This marks a sharp change from the aggressive hawkishness we saw over most of last year and helped lift stocks across the board.Traders Eye End to BOE & ECB TighteningThe BOE and ECB followed on Thursday and helped drive the stock rally higher still. While both banks hiked by a further .5%, both EUR and GBP fell as traders sensed that tightening is coming to an end. The ECB has signalled a further .5% hike in March, after which point it will decide any further adjustments on a data dependant basis. However, with both the ECB and the BOE acknowledging the declines in inflation, stocks rallied as traders judge that the coming months will bring an end to monetary tightening.Upside RisksLooking ahead, the near-term outlook is favourable for stocks. A further cooling of inflation and stronger signals that monetary tightening is coming to an end should help keep asset prices underpinned. While recessionary risks are noted, resilience in US data suggest the potential that the US might still avoid a recession, in which case stocks would receive a further lift.Technical ViewsMSCI World Shares IndexThe breakout above the 525.21 level is strongly bullish for the index. With the rally currently seeing price above the 563.77 level, focus is on a continuation higher towards the 595.86 level next. This will be the next major test for bulls. While the market holds above the 525.21 level, the outlook remains bullish near-term.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-world-stocks-rally-following-central-bank-updates"
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NZDUSD Potential to Recent Swing High

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD, H4 | Potential to recent swing high TypeBullish Continuation Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NZDUSD is slightly bullish, there is an ascending trendline . Looking for buy entry at 0.64266 which is the overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-potential-to-recent-swing-high"
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Dollar Rebounds after Fed, ECB Meeting but the Rally may Prove Fleeting

The Fed hiked the interest rate by 25 basis points yesterday and hinted that there will be another hike, after which it will likely be done with tightening. Despite worries about inflation, Powell said at the press conference that the committee believes it is necessary to slow down the pace of monetary tightening. Market indicators of the Fed's terminal rate changed slightly (also remaining nearly 5%), but judging by the performance of risk assets, the cryptocurrency market and the dollar, investors increased their expectations of the Fed's policy easing cycle in the second half of the year. For example, the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds fell about 15 basis points to 3.35%, the S&P 500 soared from 4050 to 4150 points, and the dollar fell below 101 points after which it rebounded rapidly and almost erased the fall that was triggered by the FOMC update.Today, the ECB also held a meeting at which the regulator announced a rate increase by 50 basis points. Thus, the ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.5% and the refinancing rate to 3%. But there was something else too: the ECB announced in advance another rate hike next month, also by 50 basis points, opening the door for either a pause or a slower rate hike after March. The ECB also reaffirmed the December decision that the QE rate will decrease by an average of 15 billion euros per month from the beginning of March to the end of June 2023.It took the ECB a while, but it seems to have learned how to raise interest rates. And as long as core inflation remains consistently high and core inflation forecasts remain above 2%, the ECB will continue to tighten the monetary policy. The growing likelihood that a recession will be avoided in the first half of the year also gives companies more room to increase their pricing power, thus strengthening the basis for elevated inflationary expectations.The famous fiscal stimulus that eased recession fears is an additional concern for the ECB, as it could turn a supply-side inflation problem into demand-side inflation. These are two factors that could increase inflationary pressures in the euro area, albeit at a lower level than previously expected. As a result, the ECB is likely not only to continue to raise rates until late spring, but to keep interest rates high for longer than the period that the markets are pricing in.EURUSD rose above 1.10 today, but ran into strong resistance, which led to a collapse below 1.09, nevertheless, it is risky to sell the euro now - the ECB appears to have an advantage in tightening, the risks of a recession in the global economy (which could spur a safe haven USD demand) have slightly decreased. Thus, new highs for EURUSD in the next month are not ruled out, however, a correction from the round level was necessary. The support area for the pair resides in the range of 1.08-1.0875 (the lower limit of the bullish channel):

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-rebounds-after-fed-ecb-meeting-but-the-rally-may-prove-fleeting"
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Covid-19 vaccines helped these stocks take off, but what’s next for these companies?

Dominic Frisby explores how the top vaccine stocks are doing as booster take-up remains at a low

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605677/covid-19-vaccines-stocks
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Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500 & Nasdaq

Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500 & NasdaqTo access today's actionable analysis click here!

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-technical-trade-set-ups-for-emini-sp500-and-nasdaq"
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Bank of England raises interest rate to 4%

The Bank of England raised rates by 0.5%, marking the base rate’s 10th consecutive increase.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/605676/bank-of-england-raises-interest-rate-to-4
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AUDUSD potential to Bullish Continuation

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential to Bullish Continuation TypeBullish Continuation Preference:We are seeing the price break the 1st resistance level. Looking for a buy entry at slightly below the resistance at 0.71453, take profit at 0.7282 which is the previous swing high.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-to-bullish-continuatio"
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What to do with old £20 notes – how to exchange old notes for new ones

Old paper £20 and £50 notes are no longer legal tender. We explain what to do with your old banknotes and where to exchange them.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605464/how-to-exchange-old-notes-for-new-ones
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Persistent EU Inflation Boosts Odds of a Moderately Hawkish ECB on Thursday

The Fed meeting in December, the Minutes of the meeting, incoming January US soft and hard data - all of them indicate that the Fed may deliver the penultimate rate hike today and implicitly announce the end of the tightening cycle at the next meeting. However, core inflation in the US is still high and the labor market remains surprisingly resilient, so there is little sense for the Fed to materially revise its hawkish stance. The idea of another Powell protest today against the dovish market expectations that have been building since the beginning of the year is holding back a USD sell-off and curbs equity optimism. For the last two weeks the dollar has shown stability (relative to performance in the first two weeks of January), fluctuations of the DXY index were limited in the range of 101.50-102.50. First of all, this could be a consequence of a defensive positioning in risk assets in response to a possible fork in the course of the Fed's policy. The key benchmark of the US stock market, the S&P 500 fell to 3900 points in mid-January and then failed to move much above 4000 points. The second key asset class, bonds, has also seen consolidation, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 3.5%. Signals of a slowdown in the US economy have created a situation where, in the event of a consistently hawkish stance by the Fed, market fears of a Fed policy error will increase, which may bring forward a downturn and even recession in the economy, during which demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset should increase significantly. Together, this led to the formation of the range in the dollar in the second half of January.Today the dollar is losing ground; this is largely due to the dovish surprise in the second most important report on the US labor market - the ADP report. The agency estimated that job growth slowed to 106K in January from 273K in December. It was expected that the growth will be 178K. The situation in the US industrial sector in January was clarified by PMI from ISM. The weak reading (47 points with a forecast of 48 points) is likely to accelerate the movement of the dollar index towards the main support level (101.50), but the FOMC will determine the medium-term dynamics.The European currency was supported today by the data on inflation in the Eurozone. Core inflation rose to 5.2% in January, headline inflation slowed down from 9% to 8.5%. Since the ECB, like other central banks, is predominantly targeting core inflation, a signal of core inflation persistence in January adds to the chances of a moderately hawkish stance on Thursday, which makes the EURUSD rally more likely, especially if the Fed opts for a maximally balanced stance.Activity indices in the Eurozone from S&P Global for January (final estimate) were neutral (slight deviations towards more positive values in France and Italy, no changes in Germany).

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/persistent-eu-inflation-boosts-odds-of-a-moderately-hawkish-ecb-on-thursday"
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