Market Spotlight: BP Outlines Strategy Shift Following Record profits

Record Profits Shares in oil giant BP are trading higher across the European morning today on the back of a stellar set of earnings. The group posted Q4 EPS of $21.95, just a touch under the $22.90 the market was looking for. However, revenues were seen higher than forecasts at $5.75 trillion vs $4.59 trillion expected. On the year as whole, BP posted record profits of $27.65 billion, its highest returns in 14 years. As a result of these gains BP announced a 10& increase in the dividend along with a $2.75 billion share buyback.Increased Taxation Record profits from energy companies have drawn plenty of criticism given the cost-of-living crisis in the UK. Last year, the government announced a new windfall profits tax on energy firms making excess profits from the spike in energy prices seen in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. BP noted that it will pay around $2.2 billion in UK tax with around a third of that satisfying the government’s new energy tax.Green Strategy in QuestionThe spike in profits appears to have impacted the group’s outlook and strategy. Looking ahead, BP noted that it will not be looking to reduce fossil fuel output by 2030 by as much as expected. BP had been among the first energy giants to announce a shift towards greener energy, outlining plans to cut emission by 50% by 2050. However, it now said it will target a 20-30% reduction, citing the need to keep up with global demand for fossil fuels.Technical ViewsBPFor now, BP shares continue to hold in range between the 456.80 level support and the 504.45 resistance, underpinned by the local rising trend line. In line with the broader bull trend, the focus is on a n eventual break higher while price holds above the support level. However, bearish divergence on momentum studies is worth keeping an eye on. Any downside break of 456.80 opens the way fo r a test of 421.05 next.

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Daily Market Outlook, February 7, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 7, 2023Powell’s Speech The Highlight of The Day, First Post Payrolls Remarks“Asian equities traded with mixed tone overnight following on from a very quiet session on Wall Street, as investors were reluctant to extend risk ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Powell, who addresses the Economic Club of Washington later today, investors will parse Powell’s comments for his read on the red hot jobs data in the US Friday, these come in light of lasts weeks post rate announcement press conference when markets believed the Fed Chair gave the first clear acknowledgement of the start of the disinflationary process in play, however, the employment data on Friday has pushed market pricing in favour of further rate hikes given the continued tightness in the US labour market.  Overnight the Australian central bank raised rate again and confirmed they expected further hikes to follow given the re-emergence of inflationary pressure in the economy, this move comes as markets were starting to reprice lower rates down under before inflation data came in hotter than expected, leading investors to consider inflationary pressures returning on a global scale, Fed’s Bostic’s remarks overnight supported this view suggesting that employment data could lead to a higher terminal rate stateside European bourses are taking the soft handover from Asian markets with the EuroStoxx CAC and Dax trading lower, the stand out performer is the FTSE being supported by record earnings from BP this morning, who announced a £2.7Bln stock buyback programme. In the foreign exchange markets the unwind in Dollar weakness is attracting attention, with investors piling into Dollar call options and increasing bets on a return to EUR & GBP weakness, notably €500million trading on a nine month 0.9500 USD call structure ”FX Options Expiration New York CutEURUSD 1.0600 (726mln), 1.0845 (336mln)Overnight News of NoteAsian Share Markets Stabilised Somewhat On Tuesday Ahead Of PowellAussie Extends Gain After RBA Hikes Rates, Signals More To ComeRBA Raises Rates To 10-Year High, Says More Hikes AheadRBA: Path To Achieving A Soft Landing Remains A Narrow OneFed’s Bostic Says Higher Peak Rate on Table After Jobs BlowoutChina's Yuan Off One-Month Low On Signs Of De-Escalation In Sino-U.S. TensionsJapan's December Nominal Wages Rise 4.8%, Most Since 1997Australia Records Its Fifth Straight Year Of Trade Surpluses In 2022BoE Officials Say Brexit Fuelling Inflation, Driving Up RatesOil Extends Gain As Saudi Arabia Bets On Demand Rebound In AsiaNYSE Plans To Pay In Full 60% Of Claims Submitted After Glitch(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4070Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4050 opens 402020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0610Primary support  is 1.0610Primary objective is 1.11Below 1.0585 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary support  is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131Primary support  is 131Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bearish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 23200Primary support 22200Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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The IndeX Files 07-02-2023

Equities Under Pressure From Resurgent USDIt’s been a difficult start to the week for global equities benchmarks. Leading indices have come under pressure on the back of Friday’s US jobs data which has fuelled a shift in Fed expectations, leading to a stronger US Dollar. Friday’s data saw the headline NFP print coming in at 517k, vs 193k expected, with the unemployment rate tumbling to lows last seen in 1969 at 3.4%. These figures are diluting expectations of a near-term pivot from the Fed, downplaying the risks of a recession this year (or a deep one at least) and giving the Fed plenty of room to push ahead with further tightening this year. Traders now await comments from Fed chairman Powel later today with plenty of downside risks for equities should Powell reaffirm the Fed’s hawkishness.The DAX has come under pressure today following the release of worse than expected German industrial orders data. Fears of a recession in Germany this year are still a big headwind to the eurozone economy particularly with ECB’s Holzmann and Mann warning yesterday that rates would need to stay at restrictive levels for longer.The FTSE has been boosted today by a bumper set of earnings from BP. The oil giant posted record gains last year and announced an increase in the dividend as well as a $2.75 billion share buyback for Q1.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX has seen the market breaking out above the 15163.41 level while continuing higher within the bull channel which has framed the move off last year’s lows. Though momentum studies are weakening, while price holds above that level, focus is on further upside.S&P 500The rally in the S&P saw price briefly testing above the 4153.50 level. The move has since reversed with price trading back below that level. With indicators turning lower, while below here there is risk of a further drop lower towards 3910 next. Above here, 4305 is the next level to watch.FTSEThe rally off last year’s lows which has been framed by a steep bull channel, has seen the index trading up to a test of the 7904.7 level. This area is holding as resistance for now. However, while price remains above the 7678.8 level and within the bull channel, focus is on an eventual break higher.NIKKEIThe rally in the Nikkei has seen the index trading back up to test the broken bull trend line and the bear trend line from last year’s highs. For now, this resistance is holding. However, if price can stay atop the 27422.9 level, focus is on further upside. Below there, risks of a full retreat towards 25500.5 are seen.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-07-02-2023"
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AUDUSD Potential for bearish drop towards intermediate support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD Potential for bearish drop towards intermediate supportTypeBearish BreakoutPreference:If price breaks this support right here, we can possibly see price drop from this pivot towards the intermediate support level.Resistance will be here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-intermediate-support"
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EURJPY potential for bullish rise towards previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleEURJPY potential for bullish rise towards previous swing highTypeBullish BouncePreference:Expect price to possibly retest the pivot which is the overlap support before heading towards the previous swing high resistance.The support level is here.

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The ten highest dividend yields in the FTSE 100

Rupert Hargreaves takes a look at the companies with the highest dividend yields in the UK’s blue-chip index

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Market Spotlight: Bitcoin Hurt By USD Rally

BTC Reversing From Recent HighsBitcoin prices have come off a little from last week’s highs with the market turning lower by 7% across recent days. A slew of weaker-than-forecast tech earnings hurt sentiment last week. However, it was Friday’s post-NFP USD rally that really put BTC under pressure. With the NFP coming in well above market forecasts and unemployment falling to multi-decade lows. Powell on WatchLooking ahead this week, traders will be closely watching Fed chairman Powell who speaks tomorrow. On the back of Friday’s better-than-expected data, the risk is that Powell takes a more hawkish stance, helping drive USD further higher and pulling risk assets (including BTC) lower near-term.US Rates In FocusLooking ahead, the fate of BTC in coming months will hinge firmly on US rate path projections. While Friday’s jobs data was encouraging, concerns about downside risks to the US economy have been a key feature of the current earnings season. Though many players are now projecting a milder downturn than expected towards the end of last year, focus is likely to drift back towards the Fed ending its tightening operations as we move through Q2 and into summer, creating upside risks for BTC a little further down the line even if we do see some near-term give back.  Technical ViewsBTCThe failure on approach to the 24930 level has seen the market reversing sharply lower. Price is now testing the 22600 level support and with momentum studies turning lower, the market is at risk of a break lower here. Below this level, 20575 is the next support to note.

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Market Spotlight: EURUSD Reversal Threat

EURUSD Reverses Sharply Last week holds the potential to mark a clear turning point for EURUSD. The weakness we saw on the back of the ECB meeting, further strengthened by the USD rally in response to Friday’s jobs data, has been accompanied by a sharp shift in retail sentiment. The retail community is now around 70% long the pair, suggesting room for a deeper reversal lower.ECB Pivot In Sight While ECB chief Lagarde did her best to hammer home the point that the ECB will continue with rate hikes until inflation is back at target, the market seemed solely focus on her comments that after the next .5% hike in March, the ECB will assess and make decisions on a data-dependent, meeting by meeting basis. This has seen an unwinding of long positions in EUR which had built up prior to the meeting. Bumper NFP Report Sends USD HigherOn Friday, a bumper set of US labour market data saw USD heavily bid as US rate hike projections came into question. With the risk now that USD remains well-bid near-term while EUR continues to sell-off, EURUSD looks poised for further losses. Expect Fed speakers across the week to stand behind their hawkish sentiment which should drive the reversal further.Technical ViewsEURUSDFollowing the reversal lower last week, the pair is now testing support at the 1.0785 level along with the falling wedge support line. With retail traders long and with momentum studies turning bearish, a break lower here will open the way for a move down towards the 1.0364 level next and bull channel lows.

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Daily Market Outlook, February 6, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 6, 2023 “Asian equities are trading lower this morning as financial markets continued to digest Friday’s blow out jobs data, the stand out performer is the Nikkei as chatter regarding the next BoJ Chief hit the wires overnight, the widely viewed dovish Amamiya has reportedly been tapped for the top job, however, Japanese government officials were quick to refute the reports. Concerns of a resurgence in US-China tensions have done little to help the risk off tone following the ‘weather balloon’ incident across the US. US Secretary of State Blinken cancelled his trip to China in an overt response to the incident, though there are reports that the White House is still considering sending Secretary Blinken to China in a stamp of authority, demonstrating the United States political strength”Overnight News of NoteAsia Shares Slip Monday, Dollar Up As U.S. Rate Outlook ShiftsDollar On The Front Foot After Robust U.S. Jobs Data, Yen FaltersChina Traders Sell Most HK Stocks In 17 Months Amid PullbackBitcoin Not Ready To Soar As Investors Await Fed Chair Speech, More EarningsJapan Sounds Out BoJ Deputy Amamiya For Central Bank GovAmamiya Would Weigh On Yen, Be A Boost For Bonds, Analysts SayKuroda Defends BoJ's Stimulus As Best Way To Hit Inflation TargetAustralia, China Trade Ministers Hold First Meeting Since 2019Australian Inflation Gauge Rises To New Record To 6.4% In JanuaryECB's Visco Says Caution Warranted On Mon Policy TighteningUK Mortgages Set For Slowest Year Since 2011 As House Prices DipDollar On The Front Foot After Robust U.S. Jobs Data, Yen FaltersJGB Yields Rise Despite Report Dovish Amamiya To Become BoJ GovOil Steadies After Slump As IEA Points to Rising China DemandIEA: There Are Signs a Stronger China Rebound Will Boost OilOil Market Faces Production Issue In 2024, Goldman’s Currie SaysNewmont In $17 Billion Takeover Bid For Gold Miner NewcrestAdani Stock Rout Enters Third Week As Flagship Shelves Bond Sale(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4095Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 3980 opens 3910/0020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0750Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.11Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary support  is 1.21Primary objective 1.19Above 1.2265 opens 1.239020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bearish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 23200Primary support 22200Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-6-2023"
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NZDUSD Potential Bearish Drop to intermediate Support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD, H4 | Potential Bearish Drop to intermediate support TypeBearish Continuation Preference:We are seeing the price test key overlap support,. There is a chance the price might continue to head, looking for buy entry at 0.62028, and taking profit at 0.60178.

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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Rise Is Still Ahead!

Bitcoin is undergoing correction after the recent rise. However, the asset’s price didn’t hit the level of 25000 just yet. Bitcoin might gain the required support at the level of 22500 and potentially jump further. So, let’s wait and see what is going to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-rise-is-still-ahead-06022023"
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CADJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistance

TitleCADJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistanceTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CADJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support for buys. Price could then head towards the overlap resistance.It's worth noting that the support level is here.

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Dollar Major Recovery Becomes a Real Risk After a Surprisingly Strong US Payrolls Report

US equities posted a good performance on Thursday, with the SPX almost testing 4200 points and NASDAQ jumping 3.56%, very close to 13000 points, the highest level since the end of August. The FOMC meeting was a nothingburger with the FOMC statement and Powell comments indicating a strong bias towards a much less hawkish stance, which could open the way to new local highs this year, but Friday Payrolls report thwarted the bullish outlook for risk assets. Also, the market rebound on Thursday was not reflected in a corresponding decline in Treasury yields: despite the rise in equities, the 10-year bond yield hovered very subduedly around 3.35%, the level that formed after the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Thus, speculative momentum could join the rise in the stock market, which should make it more vulnerable to a pullback in the event of bearish catalysts.Gold price, despite an initial rise after the FOMC, plunged on Thursday, leaving many questions about the investors’ take on the FOMC meeting. Since gold returns are a function of the real interest rate (the lower the expected rate, the higher the value of gold, all other things being equal), gold collapse suggests that the Fed meeting did not provide a convincing argument that real US rates will go down in 2023, including through the transition of the Fed to a soft policy.The shocking Non-Farm Payrolls report today brought back a 50 bp Fed rate hike to the list of possible scenarios at the next meeting! Job growth more than doubled the forecast - 517K (expected 185K). The previous Payrolls figure was also significantly revised upwards to 260K. Wages in annual terms accelerated to 4.4%:The release of the report caused a sharp strengthening of the dollar, the index of the US currency jumped by more than 0.5%, and the yield of the 10-year bond returned to the level of 3.5%. Gold collapsed:Strong Payrolls report, in my opinion, will significantly complicate further rally in the risk assets market, since the outlook for lower Fed rates in the second half of 2023 was the driver of bull run. Now, market participants may seriously consider that instead of a single rate hike, the central bank will deliver more or move to “large-caliber shells” (a 50 bp increase) as a strong labor market can generate inflation longer, which may require a longer central bank intervention. On the other hand, the report showed that the US economy is in excellent shape and maintains the momentum of expansion, which allows investors to revise growth outlook for US firms, and hence their expected yield. As one can see, the risk assets market will now be affected by two factors: one positive, in the form of a strong economy, and one negative, the Fed's later transition to a neutral policy setting.The most likely market scenario next week is a moderate downward correction of risk assets and extension of the dollar rebound, these trends may sharply intensify in the event of a re-acceleration of inflation in January. The January CPI will help to clarify this risk.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-major-recovery-becomes-a-real-risk-after-a-surprisingly-strong-us-payrolls-report"
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Which supermarket is the cheapest?

With food inflation hitting almost 17%, we look at which is the cheapest supermarket, plus the Competitions and Market Authority’s plan to introduce unit pricing to help cut costs.

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