EURJPY potential for bullish rise towards previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleEURJPY potential for bullish rise towards previous swing highTypeBullish BouncePreference:Expect price to possibly retest the pivot which is the overlap support before heading towards the previous swing high resistance.The support level is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-previous-swing-high"
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The ten highest dividend yields in the FTSE 100

Rupert Hargreaves takes a look at the companies with the highest dividend yields in the UK’s blue-chip index

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/income-investing/604871/ftse-100-ten-highest-dividend-yields
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Market Spotlight: Bitcoin Hurt By USD Rally

BTC Reversing From Recent HighsBitcoin prices have come off a little from last week’s highs with the market turning lower by 7% across recent days. A slew of weaker-than-forecast tech earnings hurt sentiment last week. However, it was Friday’s post-NFP USD rally that really put BTC under pressure. With the NFP coming in well above market forecasts and unemployment falling to multi-decade lows. Powell on WatchLooking ahead this week, traders will be closely watching Fed chairman Powell who speaks tomorrow. On the back of Friday’s better-than-expected data, the risk is that Powell takes a more hawkish stance, helping drive USD further higher and pulling risk assets (including BTC) lower near-term.US Rates In FocusLooking ahead, the fate of BTC in coming months will hinge firmly on US rate path projections. While Friday’s jobs data was encouraging, concerns about downside risks to the US economy have been a key feature of the current earnings season. Though many players are now projecting a milder downturn than expected towards the end of last year, focus is likely to drift back towards the Fed ending its tightening operations as we move through Q2 and into summer, creating upside risks for BTC a little further down the line even if we do see some near-term give back.  Technical ViewsBTCThe failure on approach to the 24930 level has seen the market reversing sharply lower. Price is now testing the 22600 level support and with momentum studies turning lower, the market is at risk of a break lower here. Below this level, 20575 is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-bitcoin-hurt-by-usd-rally"
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Market Spotlight: EURUSD Reversal Threat

EURUSD Reverses Sharply Last week holds the potential to mark a clear turning point for EURUSD. The weakness we saw on the back of the ECB meeting, further strengthened by the USD rally in response to Friday’s jobs data, has been accompanied by a sharp shift in retail sentiment. The retail community is now around 70% long the pair, suggesting room for a deeper reversal lower.ECB Pivot In Sight While ECB chief Lagarde did her best to hammer home the point that the ECB will continue with rate hikes until inflation is back at target, the market seemed solely focus on her comments that after the next .5% hike in March, the ECB will assess and make decisions on a data-dependent, meeting by meeting basis. This has seen an unwinding of long positions in EUR which had built up prior to the meeting. Bumper NFP Report Sends USD HigherOn Friday, a bumper set of US labour market data saw USD heavily bid as US rate hike projections came into question. With the risk now that USD remains well-bid near-term while EUR continues to sell-off, EURUSD looks poised for further losses. Expect Fed speakers across the week to stand behind their hawkish sentiment which should drive the reversal further.Technical ViewsEURUSDFollowing the reversal lower last week, the pair is now testing support at the 1.0785 level along with the falling wedge support line. With retail traders long and with momentum studies turning bearish, a break lower here will open the way for a move down towards the 1.0364 level next and bull channel lows.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-eurusd-reversal-threat"
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Daily Market Outlook, February 6, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 6, 2023 “Asian equities are trading lower this morning as financial markets continued to digest Friday’s blow out jobs data, the stand out performer is the Nikkei as chatter regarding the next BoJ Chief hit the wires overnight, the widely viewed dovish Amamiya has reportedly been tapped for the top job, however, Japanese government officials were quick to refute the reports. Concerns of a resurgence in US-China tensions have done little to help the risk off tone following the ‘weather balloon’ incident across the US. US Secretary of State Blinken cancelled his trip to China in an overt response to the incident, though there are reports that the White House is still considering sending Secretary Blinken to China in a stamp of authority, demonstrating the United States political strength”Overnight News of NoteAsia Shares Slip Monday, Dollar Up As U.S. Rate Outlook ShiftsDollar On The Front Foot After Robust U.S. Jobs Data, Yen FaltersChina Traders Sell Most HK Stocks In 17 Months Amid PullbackBitcoin Not Ready To Soar As Investors Await Fed Chair Speech, More EarningsJapan Sounds Out BoJ Deputy Amamiya For Central Bank GovAmamiya Would Weigh On Yen, Be A Boost For Bonds, Analysts SayKuroda Defends BoJ's Stimulus As Best Way To Hit Inflation TargetAustralia, China Trade Ministers Hold First Meeting Since 2019Australian Inflation Gauge Rises To New Record To 6.4% In JanuaryECB's Visco Says Caution Warranted On Mon Policy TighteningUK Mortgages Set For Slowest Year Since 2011 As House Prices DipDollar On The Front Foot After Robust U.S. Jobs Data, Yen FaltersJGB Yields Rise Despite Report Dovish Amamiya To Become BoJ GovOil Steadies After Slump As IEA Points to Rising China DemandIEA: There Are Signs a Stronger China Rebound Will Boost OilOil Market Faces Production Issue In 2024, Goldman’s Currie SaysNewmont In $17 Billion Takeover Bid For Gold Miner NewcrestAdani Stock Rout Enters Third Week As Flagship Shelves Bond Sale(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4095Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 3980 opens 3910/0020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0750Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.11Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary support  is 1.21Primary objective 1.19Above 1.2265 opens 1.239020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bearish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 23200Primary support 22200Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-6-2023"
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NZDUSD Potential Bearish Drop to intermediate Support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD, H4 | Potential Bearish Drop to intermediate support TypeBearish Continuation Preference:We are seeing the price test key overlap support,. There is a chance the price might continue to head, looking for buy entry at 0.62028, and taking profit at 0.60178.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-potential-bearish-drop-to-intermediate-support"
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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Rise Is Still Ahead!

Bitcoin is undergoing correction after the recent rise. However, the asset’s price didn’t hit the level of 25000 just yet. Bitcoin might gain the required support at the level of 22500 and potentially jump further. So, let’s wait and see what is going to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-rise-is-still-ahead-06022023"
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CADJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistance

TitleCADJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistanceTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CADJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support for buys. Price could then head towards the overlap resistance.It's worth noting that the support level is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cadjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-overlap-resistance"
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Dollar Major Recovery Becomes a Real Risk After a Surprisingly Strong US Payrolls Report

US equities posted a good performance on Thursday, with the SPX almost testing 4200 points and NASDAQ jumping 3.56%, very close to 13000 points, the highest level since the end of August. The FOMC meeting was a nothingburger with the FOMC statement and Powell comments indicating a strong bias towards a much less hawkish stance, which could open the way to new local highs this year, but Friday Payrolls report thwarted the bullish outlook for risk assets. Also, the market rebound on Thursday was not reflected in a corresponding decline in Treasury yields: despite the rise in equities, the 10-year bond yield hovered very subduedly around 3.35%, the level that formed after the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Thus, speculative momentum could join the rise in the stock market, which should make it more vulnerable to a pullback in the event of bearish catalysts.Gold price, despite an initial rise after the FOMC, plunged on Thursday, leaving many questions about the investors’ take on the FOMC meeting. Since gold returns are a function of the real interest rate (the lower the expected rate, the higher the value of gold, all other things being equal), gold collapse suggests that the Fed meeting did not provide a convincing argument that real US rates will go down in 2023, including through the transition of the Fed to a soft policy.The shocking Non-Farm Payrolls report today brought back a 50 bp Fed rate hike to the list of possible scenarios at the next meeting! Job growth more than doubled the forecast - 517K (expected 185K). The previous Payrolls figure was also significantly revised upwards to 260K. Wages in annual terms accelerated to 4.4%:The release of the report caused a sharp strengthening of the dollar, the index of the US currency jumped by more than 0.5%, and the yield of the 10-year bond returned to the level of 3.5%. Gold collapsed:Strong Payrolls report, in my opinion, will significantly complicate further rally in the risk assets market, since the outlook for lower Fed rates in the second half of 2023 was the driver of bull run. Now, market participants may seriously consider that instead of a single rate hike, the central bank will deliver more or move to “large-caliber shells” (a 50 bp increase) as a strong labor market can generate inflation longer, which may require a longer central bank intervention. On the other hand, the report showed that the US economy is in excellent shape and maintains the momentum of expansion, which allows investors to revise growth outlook for US firms, and hence their expected yield. As one can see, the risk assets market will now be affected by two factors: one positive, in the form of a strong economy, and one negative, the Fed's later transition to a neutral policy setting.The most likely market scenario next week is a moderate downward correction of risk assets and extension of the dollar rebound, these trends may sharply intensify in the event of a re-acceleration of inflation in January. The January CPI will help to clarify this risk.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-major-recovery-becomes-a-real-risk-after-a-surprisingly-strong-us-payrolls-report"
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Which supermarket is the cheapest?

With food inflation hitting almost 17%, we look at which is the cheapest supermarket, plus the Competitions and Market Authority’s plan to introduce unit pricing to help cut costs.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605678/the-cheapest-supermarket-food-inflation
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After slumping 42% last year, what's next for Scottish Mortgage?

After a spectacular couple of decades, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust fell by 42% last year. We take a look at the trust's performance and discuss what's next for the business.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/604911/should-you-buy-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust
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FOMO Friday: World Stocks Rally Following Central Bank Updates

MSCI Makes New GroundIt’s been a busy week for markets across the board this with plenty of volatility to enjoy and with the NFP still to come, there might still be more volatility yet. With plenty of action in US earnings as well as the February FOMC, BOE and ECB meetings, we’ve seen a number of big moves. Chatting with traders ahead of the weekend, however it seems the big move that most are focused on ahead of the weekend is the more than 14% rally in the MSCI world shares index. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If not? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Further Fed PivotThere have been two big drivers behind the move higher in the world shares index this week. The first is the developments we’ve seen in the central bank landscape. The Fed pivoted on rates again this month, opting for a lower .25% hike. Along with this, the bank sounded more constructive on inflation, noting that the disinflation process had started, with traders now eyeing just a further .5% worth of hikes before tightening comes to an end. This marks a sharp change from the aggressive hawkishness we saw over most of last year and helped lift stocks across the board.Traders Eye End to BOE & ECB TighteningThe BOE and ECB followed on Thursday and helped drive the stock rally higher still. While both banks hiked by a further .5%, both EUR and GBP fell as traders sensed that tightening is coming to an end. The ECB has signalled a further .5% hike in March, after which point it will decide any further adjustments on a data dependant basis. However, with both the ECB and the BOE acknowledging the declines in inflation, stocks rallied as traders judge that the coming months will bring an end to monetary tightening.Upside RisksLooking ahead, the near-term outlook is favourable for stocks. A further cooling of inflation and stronger signals that monetary tightening is coming to an end should help keep asset prices underpinned. While recessionary risks are noted, resilience in US data suggest the potential that the US might still avoid a recession, in which case stocks would receive a further lift.Technical ViewsMSCI World Shares IndexThe breakout above the 525.21 level is strongly bullish for the index. With the rally currently seeing price above the 563.77 level, focus is on a continuation higher towards the 595.86 level next. This will be the next major test for bulls. While the market holds above the 525.21 level, the outlook remains bullish near-term.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-world-stocks-rally-following-central-bank-updates"
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NZDUSD Potential to Recent Swing High

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD, H4 | Potential to recent swing high TypeBullish Continuation Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NZDUSD is slightly bullish, there is an ascending trendline . Looking for buy entry at 0.64266 which is the overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-potential-to-recent-swing-high"
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Dollar Rebounds after Fed, ECB Meeting but the Rally may Prove Fleeting

The Fed hiked the interest rate by 25 basis points yesterday and hinted that there will be another hike, after which it will likely be done with tightening. Despite worries about inflation, Powell said at the press conference that the committee believes it is necessary to slow down the pace of monetary tightening. Market indicators of the Fed's terminal rate changed slightly (also remaining nearly 5%), but judging by the performance of risk assets, the cryptocurrency market and the dollar, investors increased their expectations of the Fed's policy easing cycle in the second half of the year. For example, the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds fell about 15 basis points to 3.35%, the S&P 500 soared from 4050 to 4150 points, and the dollar fell below 101 points after which it rebounded rapidly and almost erased the fall that was triggered by the FOMC update.Today, the ECB also held a meeting at which the regulator announced a rate increase by 50 basis points. Thus, the ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.5% and the refinancing rate to 3%. But there was something else too: the ECB announced in advance another rate hike next month, also by 50 basis points, opening the door for either a pause or a slower rate hike after March. The ECB also reaffirmed the December decision that the QE rate will decrease by an average of 15 billion euros per month from the beginning of March to the end of June 2023.It took the ECB a while, but it seems to have learned how to raise interest rates. And as long as core inflation remains consistently high and core inflation forecasts remain above 2%, the ECB will continue to tighten the monetary policy. The growing likelihood that a recession will be avoided in the first half of the year also gives companies more room to increase their pricing power, thus strengthening the basis for elevated inflationary expectations.The famous fiscal stimulus that eased recession fears is an additional concern for the ECB, as it could turn a supply-side inflation problem into demand-side inflation. These are two factors that could increase inflationary pressures in the euro area, albeit at a lower level than previously expected. As a result, the ECB is likely not only to continue to raise rates until late spring, but to keep interest rates high for longer than the period that the markets are pricing in.EURUSD rose above 1.10 today, but ran into strong resistance, which led to a collapse below 1.09, nevertheless, it is risky to sell the euro now - the ECB appears to have an advantage in tightening, the risks of a recession in the global economy (which could spur a safe haven USD demand) have slightly decreased. Thus, new highs for EURUSD in the next month are not ruled out, however, a correction from the round level was necessary. The support area for the pair resides in the range of 1.08-1.0875 (the lower limit of the bullish channel):

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-rebounds-after-fed-ecb-meeting-but-the-rally-may-prove-fleeting"
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