USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to recent swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential for Bullish Rise to recent swing high TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is slightly bullish as there is a key support level, Looking for a buy entry at 1.33408 where below the overlap support. We are looking to take profit at 1.34706 which is the overlap recent swing high.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-recent-swing-high"
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S&P500 potential for bearish drop towards intermediate support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleS&P500 potential for bearish drop towards intermediate supportTypeBearish DropPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for S&P500 is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for an immediate entry at the pivot. The resistance is where the overlap resistance level is. The support is the intermediate support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p500-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-intermediate-support"
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USDJPY potential for bullish rise towards overlap support

TitleUSDJPY potential for bullish rise towards overlap supportTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support. Expecting price to continue bullish towards the overlap resistance levelIt's worthy to note that there is an intermediate resistance level where the previous swing high is. Price could reverse back down from that area.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-overlap-support"
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UK economy stalls in the final quarter of 2022 but avoids recession

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed GDP fell 0.5% in December but remained flat in the final quarter of the year.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/605695/uk-economy-stalls-in-the-final-quarter-of-2022-but-avoids-recession
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Market Spotlight: UK Avoids Recession By Thinnest of Margins

UK Economy On the EdgeThe latest UK economic data today suggests that the recent optimism we’ve seen might be a little pre-mature. Preliminary quarterly GDP was seen at 0% in Q4, just above the -0.3% seen over the prior quarter. Had the result been negative today, the UK would have been in a technical recession. However, instead, the UK has avoided that situation by the thinnest of margins. For many, this will be a hollow victory and reflects the difficulties facing the UK economy very well. On the monthly reading, UK GDP was seen suffering a sharp 0.5% drop, below the 0.3% decline the market was looking for.Recession Risks Still ThereThe BOE has recently warned that the UK stull faces a recession this year, though did say that the downturn would likely not be as pronounced as previously thought. With interest rates at 14-year highs and with inflation still at excessive levels, financial conditions for businesses and consumers in the UK are the worst they’ve been for a generation. However, with the FTSE climbing to fresh record highs this week it’s clear that many players anticipate better times ahead. The fear is that if the BOE pauses hikes at current levels that inflation might rebound near-term, creating further difficulties for the bank.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe pair currently oscillating around the 1.2195 level, contained within a triangle pattern which has framed the recent consolidation. On the back of the recent uptrend, the focus is on a further push higher and an eventual test of the 1.2659 level next if bulls can get back above 1.2195. Below here, and with momentum studies bearish, risks are skewed towards a break lower and a test of 1.1474 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-uk-avoids-recession-by-thinnest-of-margins"
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Daily Market Outlook, February 10, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 10, 2023Valentines Day Pick For BoJ Chief Could Prove To Be A Heartbreaker For Yen BearsAsian equities are mostly lower overnight as declines in US equities persisted following reports suggesting Fed comments that US interest rates have further to rise. Chinese inflation data for January was mixed as annual producer price inflation fell to -0.8% in January but consumer price inflation rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. The Japanese government has confirmed that it will announce its nominee for the next Bank of Japan Governor on 14th February, market chatter that the BoJ pick is believed to be the more hawkish ex board member Ueda after the favourite for the nomination refused to accept the role, has led to strengthening in the Yen overnight.In the US, consumer confidence has been rebounding after huge declines witnessed last year. The retreat in gas prices stateside has helped buffer sentiment, however today’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, is thought to show another round of softness. The latest sentiment on inflationary expectations will also be eyed with the recent rebound in gas prices a concern.FX Options Expiration New York CutEURGBP .8800(425mln) .9390(580mln)Overnight News of NoteAsia Stocks Head For Second Weekly Loss As Fed Rate Worries FlareJapan Govt To Present Next BoJ Governor Nominee On Feb 14RBA Raises Inflation, Wages Forecasts, Sees Further Rate HikesChina Factory Deflation Deepens, Consumer Prices Rise In JanuaryJapan's Wholesale Inflation Stays Elevated, Keeps BoJ Under PressureBoJ Kuroda: Will Keep Easing As Long As Needed For Price GoalBoJs Amamiya: See No Need Now To Make YCC More FlexibleJapan’s Suzuki: Must Discuss Joint Accord With New BoJ GovernorFed's Foot 'Unequivocally' On Brake, Sensible To Move Slower, Barkin SaysBank Of England Officials Split Over Future Path For RatesDollar Defensive As Investors Remain Cautious Ahead Of Inflation DataTreasury Yield-Curve Inversion Reaches Deepest Level Since 1980sPBoC 3-Day Cash Injection Hits 1 Trillion Yuan To Ease SqueezeBoJ To Offer 5yr Loans To Banks On Feb. 14 To Help Cap YieldsOil Trims Weekly Gain As Slowdown Concerns Counter China DemandGoldman Cuts Oil Forecasts On Softer 2023 Demand-Supply BalancePayPal Says Volume Growth Slowed; CEO Schulman To Retire(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4050Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4040 opens 400020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0810Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.06Below 1.0580 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131Primary support  is 130Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 21500Primary support 21200Primary objective is 25000Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-10-2023"
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FOMO Friday: S&P Flies Too Close To the Sun

S&P Slips From HighsIt’s fair to say that it’s been a relatively quiet week across markets. We’ve seen decent volatility, just little in the way of clear directional moves. Much of what has gone up, subsequently came down and vice versa. Weeks like this, however, are a good time to reflect on one’s trading and plan ahead as the big moves and key catalysts are never far away. Still, there has been plenty happening this week and chatting with traders ahead of the weekend it seems the big move capturing most attention is the almost 3% pullback in the S&P. So, let’s take a look at what cause the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week!What Caused the Move?Shifting USD View on Better US DataThe main driver behind the drop in the S&P this week has been the change in USD outlook on the back of recent US data and Fed commentary. Last week’s December US labour market data showed the NFP coming in almost 3x higher than forecasts while the unemployment rate was seen falling back to levels last seen in 1969. On the back of this surprisingly strong data traders feared the Fed might look to press ahead with rates hikes for longer than originally expected given that the anticipated downside impact on the economy has clearly not been as harsh as thought.Hawkish Fed CommentsWith USD rallying firmly across the board, US markets came off rather sharply. This week, then, focus shifted to a slew of Fed commentary over the week, kicking off with chairman Powell on Tuesday. While Powell’s speech was more or less a repetition of his comments at the FOMC it was subsequent comments from other Fed members which caused concern for equities traders. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari both called on the Fed to continue with hiking throughout this year with Williams saying that rates would need to stay at higher levels for years, beyond the Fed’s current projections, and Kashkari calling for rates to peak around 5.4% at least, above the Fed’s own projections again.Downside Risks for S&PThese comments represented a clear hawkish uptick on the back of last week’s data and raised fears that other Fed members might be feeling the same way, putting larger hikes (or hiking for longer) back on the table. Looking ahead then, the outlook for the S&P will be very tied to incoming US data and Fed commentary as traders look to gauge how the Fed is likely to proceed this year. Further strong data might therefore weigh on S&P, boosting hawkish Fed expectations.Technical ViewsS&PThe rally off last year’s lows has seen the index testing above the 4153.50 level though the move has stalled for now and since reversed back under the level. With momentum studies weakening, while below here, there are risks of a deeper move back towards the bull channel lows and 3910 below. Back above, focus shifts to the 4305 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-s-and-p-flies-too-close-to-the-sun"
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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for bearish drop to recent swing low TypeBearis Preference:My overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish as there is a descending trend line. Looking ofr buy entry at 0.701, take profit at 0.68705 which is an overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-recent-swing-low"
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ETHUSD potential for bearish drop to overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleETHUSD potential for bearish drop to overlap supportTypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap resistance. Expect price to then drop towards the overlap support.The resistance is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-overlap-support"
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Gold potential for bearish drop towards overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleGold potential for bearish drop towards overlap supportTypeBearish DropPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for Gold is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.With price breaking the ascending channel, expect price to drop from the pivot towards the overlap support.The resistance is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-overlap-support"
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Fed speakers maintain hawkish rhetoric capping USD downside

Newly minted dollar bulls after the NFP report did not hear anything encouraging from Powell on Tuesday, but other Fed representatives tried to meet market’s request for hawkish comments. Four Fed officials, who are at different positions on the spectrum of hawks and doves, have indicated that it is necessary to raise rates above 5%, or reiterated the idea to hold interest rate at restrictive level for longer. All this made it difficult for investors to quickly recover their risk appetite and helped the dollar to find some ground. Futures for European and US indices trade in positive territory today, and currencies, rising on expectations of global economic expansion, showed good growth. This may indicate that the markets see the current moment as the peak of the Fed's hawkish communication and are now looking for opportunities to re-enter US dollar pro-cyclical shorts at more attractive levels.However, there is still scope for the US dollar to absorb further hawkish repricing of rate expectations, and a recovery in high-beta currencies may be premature. Markets are pricing the Fed's peak rate at 5.13%, so it still doesn't fully account for another hike after March. The pricing of Fed rate path implies about 50 basis points of easing in the second half of the year, reflecting both disinflationary and recessionary risks in the US. Perhaps the aim of the Fed's hawkish speakers at this stage is to reassure the markets that rates can rise to at least 5.25% and that rate cut speculation is out of place.It's fair to expect that more confirmation from incoming economic data will be needed to convince markets of another 25 bps gain after March. Jobless claims are somewhat disappointing today (196K vs. 190K forecast), tomorrow's University of Michigan sentiment index is probably the only important report ahead of the weekend. A calmer trading environment could return after the morning's risk appetite and last until the main US inflation report on Tuesday. In the foreign exchange market, it seems that it is still too early for the dollar to return to a stable downward trend: instead, country factors and risks may become the focus of attention.The data on inflation in Germany, published this morning, surprised on the downside. The overall consumer price index rose 8.7% year on year, lower than the forecasted 8.9%. This is likely to test the ability of the European Central Bank to continue to resist the bullish reaction in bond market after last week's ECB meeting. The EUR/USD pair may struggle to break above 1.08 level for now.Elsewhere in Europe, the focus will be on the comments of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey when he testifies before Parliament. As in the Eurozone, we have seen a lot of hawkish commentary in the UK since last week's Bank of England interest rate decision, and markets are likely to expect any political commentary today to be hawkish as well. The weakness of the euro confirms the recent fall of the EUR/GBP pair, and the level of 0.8800 may be tested in the near future.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fed-speakers-maintain-hawkish-rhetoric-capping-usd-downside"
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Market Spotlight: Amazon Shares Fall Back Below Key Level

Amazon Falls BackAfter rallying more than 30% over recent months, Amazon shares have fallen back in recent days following a mixed set of Q4 earnings. While revenues were seen higher over the quarter, at $149.2 billion vs $145.7 billion expected, EPS came in below expectations at $0.03 vs $0.17 expected. The company noted a mild lift in advertising spending over the quarter, though this was offset by weaker web services revenues. However, it wasn’t necessarily the weaker earnings that wobbled investor sentiment but a softer set of guidance for Q1. Looking ahead, Amazon forecast Q1 revenues in the $121 billion - $126 billion region, a little light of Wall Street’s $125 billion estimates.Cutting CostsSales in stores were down by 2% year on year with Amazon citing higher inflation (higher consumer prices, higher energy and transport costs) as the key downside factor here. Last month, the company noted it will cut around 18000 jobs globally in a bid to cut costs, this follows previous cuts in November along with a freeze on new hiring as the company seeks to address its balance sheet.Fed ImpactAmazon shares have also come under pressure this week amidst a pullback in US stocks generally in response to hawkish Fed commentary. Bumper December jobs data in the US has potentially opened the door to a longer course of Fed tightening which is causing some downside, especially for tech stocks near-term.Technical ViewsAmazonThe rally off last year’s lows saw price breaking out above the 103.36 level. However, the move has since reversed with price trading back below the level for now. Near-term, this is a key pivot price for the stock with bulls needing to see a quick move back above the level to keep the focus on 123.79. Below here, there are risks of a move down to 84.28 especially with momentum studies weakening.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-amazon-shares-fall-back-below-key-level"
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Market Spotlight: AZN Shares Soar on Bumper Profits

Shares Surge on Earnings ReleaseShares in UK drugmaker Astra Zeneca, famous for its covid vaccine, are surging higher today in response to the group’s latest earnings report. While Q4 revenues were a little below forecasts at $930.5 billion vs $934 billion expected, the group’s full year 2022 results were solid with profits soaring to $3.2 billion from the prior year’s $112 million. Revenues for the full year jumped to $44.35 billion, up from $37.42 billion. Additionally, EPS for FY 2022 soared to $2.11 from $0.08 a year prior.Strong Sales Outside of Covid VaccineThe group attributed its bumper profits, not just to continued sales of its covid vaccine but also a spike in sales for leading diabetes and cancer drugs. Looking ahead, the groups forecasts further sales growth in 2023 with EPS forecast to rise by a high single digit to low double digit percentage. Additionally, the company has cited the reopening of the Chinese economy as a strong encouraging factor for the 2023 outlook with demand expected to increase in coming months and quarters as the post-pandemic recovery continues.Technical ViewsAstra ZenecaThe recent correction lower stalled on approach to the bull channel lows with strong buying taking price back up to challenge the 11342 area resistance. This is a key level for the stock and bulls need to see a convincing breach here to encourage fresh buying. Momentum studies have flipped bullish here supporting the rally with the bull channel top the next target above current resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-azn-shares-soar-on-bumper-profits"
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Daily Market Outlook, February 9, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 9, 2023European Markets On the Front Foot, As German Inflation Increases At A Slower RateAsian markets trade with a bid tone, China indices pushed higher on PBOC liquidity interventions, an overnight reversal in US futures adds fuel to the risk on sentiment as delayed German inflation data came in at a lower rate than expected, markets immediately repriced ECB rate hikes as investors price a lower net Eurozone CPI estimate for January at circa 8.5%. Robust earnings from European stalwarts such as Siemens and Unilever along with takeover chatter as Abu Dhabi Bank are reported to be eyeing a bid for Standard Chartered Bank, all in all this has investors in buoyant spirits at the open of European trade.The data docket is once again scant for the day ahead. In the UK testimony at the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey and other MPC members, Chief Economist Pill and MPC  members Tenreyro and Haskel will garner investor attention. Last week the BoE voted to raise interest rates for the 10th consecutive time by 50bp to 4%, however, the market read was of a more dovish tilt to proceedings, given Governor Bailey’s less than committal stance on further policy tightening, today’s hearing will give for committee members a platform to provide colour on this and to address any market misperceptions they might feel to be in the reaction to their latest rate adjustment and outlook.In the US unemployment claims data are forecast to reaffirm a strong labour market. Markets expect initial claims to nudge higher towards 195k, admittedly still at very low levels despite nascent signs of significant job losses as witnessed by job cuts seen across the tech sector.FX Options Expiration New York CutEURUSD 1.0950 (456mln)USDJPY 128.00(490mln)AUDUSD .6400 (750mln)Overnight News of NoteDollar Flat After Fed Official Comments; Focus On CPI Data Next WeekTraders Are Starting To Put Big Money On The Fed Going To 6%Fed’s Williams Says Peak Rate Forecasts Still ‘Very Reasonable’Fed’s Cook Says More Rate Hikes Needed To Curb InflationJapan Ruling Party Said to Be Divided If Kishida Seeks BOJ PivotFed Officials Signal Higher Rates Will Be Needed To Contain InflationBiden Says He Sees No Recession In 2023 Or 2024 -PBSU.S.-Bound Container Shipments From Asia Plunge As Inflation BitesECB Rates Must Hit Significantly Restrictive Levels, Kazaks SaysECB’s Knot Says Half-Point Rate Hike May Be Needed In MayBank Of Canada Debated Whether To Hike Or Hold In JanuaryBosses Call On UK Chancellor For More Tax Breaks To Avoid RecessionUK Housing Market Hit By Widest Prices Falls Since 2009 In JanuaryCoinbase's CEO Cites 'Rumors' The SEC May Ban Crypto StakingOil Takes Breather After Three-Day Rally As Outlook CloudedFirst Australian Coal Shipment To China In Two Years To DockForeign Investors Start 23 With Record $21bn Push Into China StocksWalt Disney Stems Streaming Losses In Iger’s First Quarter BackWalt Disney To Axe 7,000 Jobs In $5.5bn Cost-Cutting Plan(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4120Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4080 opens 402020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0810Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.06Below 1.0580 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131Primary support  is 130Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22200Primary support 21200Primary objective is 25000Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-9-2023"
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