6 funds to buy with the gold price near an all-time high

The gold price in sterling is trading near an all-time high. Rupert Hargreaves looks at six ways to invest in the yellow metal ahead of further gains.

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BOE in Focus As UK Inflation Falls Again

UK Inflation Falls AgainGood news today for UK consumers, and also the BOE, with the latest UK economic data reflecting a third consecutive monthly decline in consumer prices. Annualised inflation printed at 10.1% last month, down from the prior month’s 10.5% and now down a full 1% from the peak inflation reading of 11.1% seen in Q4 2022. Notably, the reading was also below market projections for a 10.3% reading.Data BreakdownLooking at the breakdown of the data, transport costs were the biggest driver of the decline at 3.1% from 6.5% prior while restaurants and hotels also marked a decline at 10.8% vs 11.3% prior. However, housing and utilities costs were seen creating upward pressure at 26.7% vs 26.6% prior as were health costs at 6.3% vs 5.1% prior. Alcohol and tobacco were also higher at 5.1% vs 3.7% prior.Core Inflation Falls AlsoA further encouraging sign was that core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, was also seen falling. Annualise core inflation printed 5.8%, down from 6.3% prior, and below the 6.2% the market was looking for. While clearly still well above the BOE’s 2% target, inflation is now moving in the right direction at least and the big question on traders’ lips is: what does this mean for the BOE?At its last meeting, along with hiking rates to their highest level in 14 years, the BOE signalled that inflation had likely peaked in the UK. The BOE has been a reluctant tightener of monetary policy throughout this cycle (often accused of being slow and lacklustre) and so today’s data will no doubt bolster the view that the bank is getting closer to pausing rate hikes.Downside Risks into March BOEAhead of the data, the latest Reuters poll showed that the majority of forecasters were looking for the BOE to pivot down to a smaller .25% hike in March. In light of this data, there are now downside risks that the BOE pauses altogether. At the very least, if the BOE does hike again, that will likely mark the start of the pause date – which is what the market will be focused on anyway. With this in mind, there are downside risks for GBP into the meeting.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe pair continues to hold within the triangle pattern which has framed the recent consolidation here.  With 1.2195 holding as resistance, the pair looks vulnerable to a drop lower, in line with weakening momentum studies. Should we see a break of the triangle lows, 1.1474 is the next support to note.

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HM Land Registry: UK house prices fell in December

The latest house price index from the government shows house prices ticked lower in the final months of 2022.

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UK inflation slows again, but remains near a 40-year high

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed CPI fell to 10.1% in January as lower fuel prices started to filter through to consumers.

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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias is bearish as there is a strong resistance level. Looking for a pullback entry at 0.70111, take profit at 0.68709.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-recent-swing-low15674645r
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GBPNZD Potential for bullish rise towards previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleGBPNZD Potential for bullish rise towards previous swing highTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPNZD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Expecting price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support before possibly heading towards the resistance which is previous swing high.

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Market Spotlight: Airbnb Earnings Up Next

Airbnb Reporting TodayAlong with January US CPI we also have two big US earnings reports due today with Coca Cola and Airbnb reporting Q4 results. Looking at the latter, shareholders are hoping for a seventh consecutive positive set of earnings results. Given that the market is looking for both EPS and revenues to have fallen from the prior quarter, you might argue that the bar is set relatively low for a strong result today which should help propel Airbnb shares higher.Bullish Expectations for AirbnbLooking at recent results in the travel sector, Q4 earnings have been mostly positive, bar the weakness in Expedia, suggesting that Airbnb stands to post some decent results today. The post-pandemic surge in travel and holidays is helping drive a rebound across the sector of which Airbnb is likely to have capitalised in Q4. Ideally, for bulls in the stock, today’s earnings would come in above forecasts while US CPI would undershoot, creating perfect conditions for a further rally. Still, regardless of US CPI, if today’s results show strength, Airbnb should be poised for a breakout in coming weeks and months.  Technical ViewsAirbnbThe rally in Airbnb shares off the 87.01 level has seen the market stalling yet again into a retest of the broken bullish trend line. However, the stock has found support ahead of the 103.67 level support and while this area holds, the focus is on a continuation higher and an eventual breakout above the 126.55 level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-airbnb-earnings-up-next"
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Market Spotlight: Tesla & US Inflation

US Inflation in Focus TodayToday’s US inflation reading couldn’t have more meaning attached to it. We’ve seen a seismic shift in market sentiment on the back of the surprisingly strong US labour reports for January. With the NFP coming in almost 300% above forecasts alongside the unemployment rate dropping to its lowest levels since 1969, traders are grappling with the prospect of a resurgence in Fed hawkishness. The key takeaway from the report is that the US economy is holding up better than expected and therefore the Fed has more headroom to continue with rate hikes for longer or at higher levels.Market ScenariosToday’s inflation report will therefore be seen as either confirming this perspective or diluting it once again. If inflation is seen spiking higher last month, particularly if above forecasts, then hawkish pricing for the March FOMC is likely to increase, driving USD higher near-term while sending equities and commodities lower. Given that pricing for a larger .5% hike in March is currently only around 12%, an upside surprise today has the potential to drive a firm USD rally as pricing switches in favour of a larger hike.  However, if CPI undershoots forecasts today this should help curtail USD bullishness ahead of the meeting, creating room for stocks and commodities to push higher.Technical ViewsTeslaThe rally in Tesla shares has stalled for now into a test of the 207.71 area. If today’s US inflation data undershoots forecasts, this should see fresh upside in the stock with a break of 207.71 opening the way for a test of 255.61 next. However, if USD rallies on the back of a hot inflation reading today, the stock is likely to retest support at 170.22. This will be a key pivot for Tesla with bulls needing to defend the level to keep the bullish outlook alive.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-tesla-and-us-inflation"
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When is the next energy price cap announcement and what does it mean for your bills?

Ofgem is set to announce the latest price cap this month - we look at what it could be and if it means lower energy bills this year

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ONS: Private sector wages grow faster than expected

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show growth in total pay fell 3.1% when adjusted for inflation.

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The IndeX Files 14-02-2023

Equities Firmer Ahead of US CPI Global equities benchmarks have seen a mostly positive start to the week ahead of today’s headline US inflation data. Markets came under pressure at the open yesterday as traders reacted to forecasts of an increase in monthly inflation, projected at 0.5% from -0.1% prior. However, annual inflation forecast to cool further to 6.2% from 6.5%, initial concerns were dampened down. On the back of the recent bumper US jobs report, however, and subsequent stream of hawkish Fed commentary, any surprise strength today will likely see a sharp unwinding of stock prices globally as traders look towards the March FOMC with increasingly hawkish expectations.The FTSE has been the best performer again this week so far with the index breaking out to fresh all-time highs yesterday. Weaker-than-forecast UK wage growth data today should help keep the index supported ahead of UK CPI tomorrow, supporting the view that inflation has likely cooled again and thus taking a little pressure off the BOE.In Europe, plunging gas prices are being welcomed by businesses and consumers alike, helping support economic sentiment there. Traders are already beginning to look ahead to a potential ECB pivot on the back of the March meeting which should help keep asset prices underpinned while that narrative remains in place.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX, framed by the rising wedge formation off last year’s lows, has stalled for now into a test of the 15642.76 level. While 15163.41 holds, however, the focus remains on a continuation lower. However, bearish divergence in momentum studies is worth noting and any break of the current support and rising wedge lows will open the way for a move down to 14703.98 next.S&P 500The rally in the S&P, framed by the bull channel off last year’s lows, has stalled for now into a test of the 4153.50 level. This area has held as resistance since later 2022 and with momentum studies weakening, risks of a drop back down towards 3910 are seen unless bulls can quickly breach the level, putting focus back on 4305 next.FTSEThe index continues to break new ground this week with price breaking out above the prior highs at 7904.7. We are seeing bearish divergence into these highs though while above the 7678.8 level the focus is on a continuation higher, in line with the bull channel.NIKKEIFor now, the index continues to hold around the 27422.9 level just ahead of the intersection between the bearish trend line from highs and the retest of the broke bull trend line. While this area holds as resistance, a correction lower cannot be ruled out.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-14-02-2023"
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NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias is bearish as there is a key resistance level. Looking for a sell entry at 0.63642, take profit at 0.62732 which is the recent swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-recent-swing-low"
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CHFJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleCHFJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistanceTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CHFJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Expecting price to possibly retest the pivot before heading towards the overlap resistance.It's worthy to note that there is an intermediate resistance level where the previous swing high is. Price might struggle to break through that.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/chfjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-overlap-resistance-1"
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Market Spotlight: Kape Shares Soar on Takeover Bid News

Kape Higher on MondayShares in Kape Technologies are trading sharply today as the stock gapped higher at the London open on news of a takeover bid. Majority shareholder Unikmind Holdings has reportedly offered $1.51 billion to purchase all remaining shares in the company ($3.44 per share). Unikmind, owned by Teddy Sagi, is unable to purchase further shares in Kape until March 31st or the release of full-year 2022 results. However, Kape is pushing for Unikmind to be released from the agreement so that the offer can be put to shareholders.Correction Offers Buying OpportunityKape shares are currently down around 35% from their all-time highs, falling as part of the broader sell off in tech over the last year. However, with sentiment quickly shifting back towards bullishness, Unikmind are looking to benefit from the projected rally by taking over Kape. The digital security software provider has seen a strong shift in performance over recent years moving out of net annual losses into profitability and as such the recent decline likely looks like an attractive discount to buy at for Unikmind. Notably, Unikmind (which owns roughly 55%) is seeking a delisting of Kape from AIM regardless of whether the offer is accepted.Technical ViewsKAPEFollowing the failure and subsequent reversal from the 309 level, Kape shares have since rebounded are now trading back up towards the level. This is a key near-term pivot for the stock. With momentum studies turning bullish, a break of current highs will open the way for a move higher towards the 373.5 level thereafter.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-kape-shares-soar-on-takeover-bid-news"
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