Market Spotlight: AUDNZD Plunges on RBNZ Hike - FOMC Minutes Next

RBNZ Hikes Again – More to Come, But Slower PaceThe RBNZ hiked rates once again overnight at its February MPR meeting. Despite signals in November of a further .75% hike to come, the bank ultimately opted for a smaller hike in the face of the recent weather disasters in New Zealand which have ravaged parts of the country and are expected to exacerbate the economic issues facing the country. Along with the smaller hike, the RBNZ also forecast a further pivot in April with a projected .25% hike. Finally, while the bank maintained its peak rate level, the RBNZ said it now expects to take longer to hit that rate with a slower pace of tightening now planned over 2023. However, the RBNZ was clear in reaffirming that it will continue with tightening this year in order to drive inflation down.AUD SuffersThe reaction in NZD was most pronounced against AUD with AUDZND plunging on the back of the meeting. AUD has been under pressure this week since the RBA meeting minutes despite the minutes revealing a more hawkish skew among members. Looking ahead, the pair looks vulnerable to further downside should today’s FOMC minutes provoke a fresh rally in USD, with AUD likely to bear the brunt of the move.Technical ViewsAUDNZDThe rally in AUDNZD off last year’s lows has been framed by a rising wedge pattern. With plenty of bearish divergence into recent highs, risks of a reversal lower are growing. Price is now testing below the structure and is currently probing support at 1.0954. If we break below here, there is open water down to 1.0750 next, in line with weakening momentum studies.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-audnzd-plunges-on-rbnz-hike-fomc-minutes-next
via IFTTT

Should you consolidate your small pensions pots?

The Department for Work and Pensions is consulting on helping workers who hold a number of small pension pots. But here's what you need to think about if you have several pension pots and are thinking about consolidating them.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/pensions/605667/small-pension-pots-consolidation
via IFTTT

The Net Zero energy revolution is anything but green

Dominic Frisby explains why the world may struggle to hit its Net Zero energy goals as the environmental and monetary costs mount.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605716/net-zero-energy-revolution
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, February 22, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 22, 2023Stocks Suffer From PMI StrengthAsian Equities retreated overnight, following US markets lower. Growth and inflation expectations increased following a robust round of PMI data. PMI prints from western economies provided a more optimistic outlook for growth, however, the inflation read was more ambiguous with supply chain disruptions easing but service sector inflation remaining elevated. The data docket in the European session is scant today, investors will eye German IFO business survey which markets expect to deliver further signs of improving conditions. Yesterday’s Eurozone flash PMI rose to a nine-month high led by service sector activity, impressively the manufacturing read also signalled a return to growth, aided by indications of further reductions in supply chain constraints. Expect today’s headline IFO index to rise to 91.5 from 90.2, supported by incremental improvements in current conditions and expectations, this  would be a fifth consecutive uptick to the best levels since midsummer of 2022The Federal Market Open Committee will release the minutes of its February policy meeting this evening, the minutes, however, may now be a little stale given subsequent robust US data releases and predominantly hawkish rhetoric from policymakers. Nevertheless, these recent data releases reinforce the hawkish mantra that is likely to come out of the minutes that a policy ‘pivot’ remains a stretch target, as markets have repriced, believing the Fed will raise rates by a further 75bp by the summer and investors have abandoned the notion of rate cuts later this year..FX Options Expiration New York CutN/AOvernight News of NoteStock Futures Inch Higher As Investors Brace For Fed MinutesFed Minutes To Show Support Level For Larger Hikes, Higher PeakBiden Fed Vice Chair Search Set To Focus On Ex-Treasury OfficialsUS Plan To Impose New Sanctions On Russian Individuals, EntitiesUS House Panel Expected To Hold Hearing On Policy About ChinaChina Call Russia Ties ‘Solid As A Rock’ Amid Ukraine Peace PushBoJ Member Tamura Calls For Keeping Ultra-Easy Policy For NowJapan Benchmark Yield Tops Above 0.5% BoJ Cap In Second DayAustralia Wage Growth Weaker Than Expected As Rate Bets PareRBNZ Hikes 50Bps And Flags More To Come As Inflation Too HighPM Sunak Secures Backing Of Key Brexiters For NI Protocol DealGerman Business Morale Set For Fifth Consecutive ImprovementCoinbase See Quarterly Loss, Crypto Winter Hits Trading Volume(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4030Primary support is 3970Primary objective is 4384Below 3960 opens 389020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0850Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.22Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6910Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23600Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-22-2023
via IFTTT

USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to Previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise to Previous swing high TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1.35142 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is, and take profit at 1.37038 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci Line are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-previous-swing-high
via IFTTT

AUDUSD potential for bearish drop towards overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD potential for bearish drop towards overlap supportTypeBearish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for price to drop from the pivot towards the overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-overlap-support
via IFTTT

What is a dividend yield?

Learn what a dividend yield is and what it can tell investors about a company's plans to return profits to its investors.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/too-embarrassed-to-ask/601807/what-is-a-dividend-yield
via IFTTT

Women to get one year’s supply of HRT for less than £20

A new scheme from the Department of Health and Social Care could reduce a woman’s HRT bill from over £200 to under £20 a year.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605715/women-to-get-one-years-supply-of-hrt-for-less-than-ps20
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: Walmart Shareholders Hoping For More Earnings Growth

Walmart In Focus TodayThe big focus for US stock traders today will be the release of Walmart’s Q4 earnings, coming just before the US open. The company’s performance always attracts plenty of attention given its status as an indicator of overall US economic health due to its size. One of the key themes we’ve heard from CEO’s over this earnings season has been the uncertainty and downside risks within the economic outlook for the year ahead. With inflation still at elevated levels and US rates having risen sharply last year, many retailers particularly have highlighted uncertainty in their guidance which is likely to be the message offered from Walmart also.Market ForecastsOn the numbers front, the market is looking for EPS of $1.51 on revenues of $159.72 billion. Both numbers will mark an uptick on the prior quarter if confirmed, marking a third straight quarter of earnings growth. Importantly, those figures would also mark a solid increase from the same period a year earlier, which should help drive Walmart shares higher near-term provided the forward guidance isn’t too pessimistic.Technical ViewsWalmartThe rally in Walmart shares off the 138.19 lows has seen the stock breaking above the bear channel from December highs. Price is now testing 146.21 which is a key level for the market. A break higher here will open the way for a test of the December highs around 154.30. Should price slip back from here, the next support to note is 138.19

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-walmart-shareholders-hoping-for-more
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: GBPJPY Breaking Out On UK Data Beat

Strong Services Sector Gains GBP has been on the rise today as traders digest the latest set of UK economic data. January PMIs saw the UK services sector bouncing back into growth territory last month with the index printing 53.3, up from the prior month’s 48.7 result and above the 49.1 the market was looking for. This marks the first time since July that the sector has been in growth territory after plunging over Q3 and Q4 2022. One particularly encouraging sign for the BOE was the PMI price index- used to determine expected future price inflation – was seen falling to its lowest level since April 2021.Manufacturing Rises Also Along with the increase in the services sector reading the manufacturing index also recorded an increase, jumping to 49.2 from 47 prior. While still in negative territory, the trajectory is encouraging and the reading was above the 47.5 the market was looking for.UK Econ Outlook ImprovingThe data reinforces the view that the UK economy is doing a little better than expected when measured against projections being made into the back end of last year. The BOE recently said that while it still expects a downturn this year, the dip will likely be milder than expected. Following the UK economy narrowly avoiding falling into recession in Q4, this initial January data is being taken as an encouraging sign that the worst of it is over and the economy is back on the up, helping lift GBP sentiment.Technical ViewsGBPJPYThe rally in GBPJPY off the Feb lows has seen the market breaking out above the 159.98 level and more recently the 162.08 level. The latest break marks a significant development and while above here the focus is on a further push higher and a test of next resistance at 164.56, with the bear channel highs around there also. Retail market heavily short and momentum studies bullish, supporting the move.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-gbpjpy-breaking-out-on-uk-data-beat
via IFTTT

The IndeX Files 21-02-2023

Equities Markets Weaker Ahead of FOMC Minutes TomorrowGlobal equities benchmarks have seen a timid start to the week with the four indices tracked here under pressure across early European trading on Tuesday. Yesterday saw quiet flows and limited action with US markets off line for President’s day and traders across the pond looking to tread carefully ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The US Dollar looks to be finding its feet again today after suffering a weaker start yesterday, which is also having a limiting effect on equities prices.The release of January PMI’s today in the Eurozone, US and UK will be the main focus for markets. Should US data surprise to the upside once again (strong recent trend of data beats), hawkish expectations are likely to build further ahead of the March FOMC, which will be bad news for equities near-term. In the UK and Eurozone, however, asset prices are likely to be a little more buoyant if today’s data confirms better business activity in January, diluting recession fears further.The main event for the week, however, will be tomorrow’s FOMC minutes for January. Given the recent strong of data beats and hawkish Fed commentary we’ve seen, the minutes might have lost a little relevance. However, USD bulls will be clinging onto any hawkish details they can find meaning that risks are skewed to the downside for equities prices this week with USD vulnerable to a fresh move higher.Technical ViewsDAXFor now, the DAX continues to hold within the top of the rising wedge formation, held up by support at the 15163.41 level and capped by resistance at 15642.76. With momentum studies having weakened recently, there are growing risks of a reversal lower with 14703.98 the next support to watch if current lows are broken.S&P 500The failure at the 4153.50 level has seen the market turning sharply lower, in line with falling momentum studies. Price is now fast approaching a test of the bull channel lows which, if broken, open the way for a test of 3910.00 next. Bulls will need to defend this level to prevent a fuller reversal lower.FTSEAfter breaking out to record highs last week, the FTSE is now softening a little from those highs. However, while within the bull channel and while 7904.7 holds as support, the outlook remains bullish. Should that level give, there is a bigger support level at 7678.8 which will be the key test of the market.NIKKEIThe market continues to stall around the 27422.9 level. Price has been caught up here over much of this year and, now just below the level, with momentum studies weakening the index looks vulnerable to a dip lower with 26407 the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-21-02-2023
via IFTTT

USDJPY Potential for Bullish Rise to 23.6% Fibonacci Line

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Rise TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish as the current price is crossing the Ichimoku Cloud. Looking for pullback buy entry at 131.622 where the overlap support is, and take profit is at 137.9 where the previous swing high is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-23-6-fibonacci-line
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2023Asian Markets Marking Time, Waiting Lead From Wall StreetAsian equities are trading with a muted tone overnight as they lacked a lead from Wall Street given the NYSE was closed for US Presidents Day celebrations. The Nikkei and Shanghai Comp are rotating around the flatline for the session, while the Hang Seng is the standout underperformer shedding over 1.5% driven by regional tech losses. The subdued risk sentiment in Asian trade was compounded by the recent minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which confirmed that discussion at the most recent meeting was around the scale of a hike 25 or 50bps, with a pause not even on the table for negotiation, as the minutes confirmed the board were committed to further rate increases in the coming months, once again dashing dovish investors desiresEuropean bourses are set to open with a softer tone this morning ahead of flash PMI prints for the Uk, Germany and the Eurozone. Stateside investor focus will be firmly on FOMC minutes released later today, markets are currently pricing a higher terminal rate circa 5.3% for July with a 2023 rate curve remaining above 5%, as investors abandon hopes of rate cuts this year. With the US inflation backdrop remaining stubbornly sticky, combined with the robustness of the employment landscape it is likely the Fed minutes will confirm that the Open Market committee are poised to keep the pedal to the metal on the higher for longer rates mantra, certainly the recent price action in the Dollar cements this view the DXY has recovered its losses for the year so far and looks poised to challenge the pivotal 105 handle, weighing on global risk sentiment, with MSCI Index the broadest Asian-Pacific gauge sitting towards six week lows after retreating 3% so far in February.FX Options Expiration New York CutUSDJPY 133.50(300m)AUDUSD .6410(747m), .6730(743m)Overnight News of NoteUS Futures Fall, Try To Rebound From Third Weekly DeclinePutin To Update Russia’s Elite On Ukraine In Major SpeechChina Says 'Deeply Worried' On Escalation Of Ukraine WarChina Launch Private Equity Pilot To Boost Property SectorChina Busy Roads Show Economic Recovery Gathers PaceBoJ's Kuroda: Wages Set To Accelerate On Tight Job MarketJapan’s Factory Activity Falls At Fastest Pace In Over 2 YearsAustralia Considered 25 Or 50Bps Rate Hike, Minutes RevealUK PM Sunak Lobbies Tory MPs To Back Looming Brexit DealNI Brexit Deal Could Trigger Resignations, UK PM Sunak ToldGermany’s ZEW Investor Confidence Set To Continue HigherHSBC Profits Rocket As Rising Interest Rates Boost RevenueBHP Cuts Record Dividend As China Slowdown Dents Profits(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0850Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23600Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-21-2023
via IFTTT

USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to resistanceTypeBullish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to rise from the pivot to ride the bullish momentum towards the resistance level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-resistance
via IFTTT