High energy prices are here to stay

The rising cost of producing energy means high oil and gas prices are here to stay argues Max King

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/energy/605722/high-energy-prices-are-here-to-stay
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: USDCAD Breaking Out Ahead of Core PCE

Yellen Says US Can Avoid Hard LandingUS stocks were seen climbing off the lows yesterday as comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen helped boost sentiment. The former Fed chair was speaking on the side-lines of the G20 summit and told reporters that she believes the US has the potential to avoid a hard landing. Citing the strength of the US labour market and a stronger balance sheet than pre-GFC, Yellen said that the economy is in good shape and noted the declines in inflation as a further encouraging sign.Core PCE Up NextYellen’s comments come just ahead of today’s US core PCE data. The market will be closely watching the release, given that it Is used by the Fed as a primary gauge of inflation, more so than CPI. On the back of the uptick in January inflation, expectations are for a similar lift with analysts projecting a 0.4% from 0.3% monthly increase. Any result at this level or above should keep the current narrative of hawkish Fed expectations intact, driving USD higher.Where To Trade?With Canadian CPI seen undershooting forecasts last month, in stark contrast to the US, the BOC’s current “on hold” guidance looks solid. With divergence opening up once again between the Fed and the BOC, USDCAD looks vulnerable to further upside if today’s data comes in hot.Technical ViewsUSDCADThe rally in USDCAD off the recent lows has seen price breaking out above the bear trend line from last year’s highs and above the 1.3501 level. While above here the focus is on a further push higher towards the 1.3683 level, in line with bullish momentum studies readings. Above 13683, 1.3839 is the bigger target to play for.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-usdcad-breaking-out-ahead-of-core-pce
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: JPY Falls As Ueda Says Rates to Stay Low

Rates to Stay LowThe Japanese Yen has come under pressure across the European open on Friday following seemingly dovish comments from incoming BOJ governor Ueda. Speaking at the Japanese Diet, Ueda told members of parliament that he felt the BOJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy is still appropriate for now and signalled that he is in no rush to raise rates. There has been a great deal of speculation regarding Ueda’s views on monetary policy and with these comments marking his first formal remarks, traders have gained some important clarity. The initial market reaction has seen the Nikkei rallying while JPY comes off.Uncertainty Ahead for JapanWhile Ueda suggested there was room for adjusting the bank’s yield curve control target, urging the BOJ to be creative with monetary policy, timing was still the key issue to be resolved, according to Ueda. In terms of the broader outlook for the economy, Ueda cited his view that the surge in inflation was a function of elevated import costs, not heightened demand, and warned that there is a great deal of uncertainty in the Japanese economic outlook.Continuity For NowFurther out, Ueda said that while it will likely take some time before trend inflation is sustainably at or above 2%, once there the BOJ consider normalising monetary policy. Notably, Ueda said that this would be achieved through hiking rates on deposits held at the bank by financial institutions rather than selling bonds. The key message for now is one of continuity with Ueda clearly not looking to rock the boat. With this in mind, JPY is likely to remain pressured while Japanese asset prices should remain supported.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe rally off the lows in USDJPY has seen the market breaking out above the bear channel from last year’s highs and above the 132.91 level. While above here, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 139.33 level, in line with bullish momentum studies readings. Retail market remains heavily short, encouraging a further push higher.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-jpy-falls-as-ueda-says-rates-to-stay-low
via IFTTT

USDCAD Potential Rise to Previous overlap resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential rise to a key overlap resistanceTypeBullish rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 1.35156 where the overlap support is. we are looking to take profit at 1.37020 where the overlap resistance is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-rise-to-previous-overlap-resistance
via IFTTT

The best cash Isas – February 2023

Cash Isa rates have risen over the last 12 months. Here are the best cash Isas on the market today.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/savings/isas/stocks-and-shares-isas/the-best-cash-isas-february-2023
via IFTTT

The cost of care: how to pay for long term care?

The high cost of long-term care ranks is among the top five reasons why those over 55 will choose to continue working after retirement age. Whether you’re planning ahead for yourself or thinking about care for an elderly relative we look at ways you can pay it

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605721/how-to-pay-for-long-term-care
via IFTTT

Law Debenture Investment Trust offers something for all investors

The Law Debenture Investment Trust has some key qualities that have helped it vastly outperform the market over the past decade

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/605720/law-debenture-investment-trust
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: S&P Testing Channel Lows Ahead of US GDP

US Adv GDP Up NextOn the back of last night’s FOMC minutes, focus today switches US advanced GDP for Q1. On the back of the prior quarter’s 2.9% reading, the market is looking for an unchanged result today. Clearly, with the recent narrative of surprising resilience in the US economy creating room for the Fed to push ahead with tightening, today’s data will be of high importance.Bullish USD/ Bearish Equities ScenarioIf market forecasts are surpassed, this will further bolster the view that the Fed might lean towards a higher rate increase in March, or a more hawkish outlook. With last nights minutes showing that some Fed members backed a larger hike in January, there is a very real risk of such a move given the recent run of US data we’ve seen. In this scenario, USD is likely to be firmly bid while risk assets should recoil near-term.Bearish USD/ Bullish Equities ScenarioOn the other hand, if today’s data undershoots forecasts, this might suggest that the market has become a little carried away recently with the hawkish Fed perspective. In this scenario, USD is likely to weaken and stocks should see better gains as market pricing leans back towards a smaller .25% hike in March.Technical ViewsS&PThe market is at in interesting point here as we test the bull channel lows. A fresh move higher in USD today should see a downside break of the channel where the big focus will then be a test of the 3910 support. This is a key pivot for the index and a break below here will be firmly bearish. However, if this area holds, or we move higher from current levels, focus will be on the 4153.50 level, a break of which will open the way for a move back up towards 4305 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-s-and-p-testing-ch
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: Nvidia Beats Forecasts & Signals Growth Ahead

Nvidia Bounces BackThe big story from US earnings yesterday was the better than forecast results from tech group Nvidia. Rebounding from the prior quarter’s losses, the group posted Q4 EPS of $0.88 vs $0.81 expected on revenues of $6.051 billion vs $6.015 billion expected. Worth noting that year-on-year both EPS and revenues were lower. However, along with quarter-on-quarter uptick, investors appeared buoyed by the group’s more optimistic 2023 outlook when compared with some of the gloomier forecasts we’ve heard across this earnings season.AI Demand GrowthThe big driver behind Nvidia’s quarterly growth was the success in it’s data centre business, fuelled by a rise in chip sales for AI. Nvidia’s position as a leading producer of graphics cards has helped it capitalise on this new growth area.  Looking ahead, the group was optimistic about its chances of continued growth linked to surging demand from AI interest. With businesses of all sizes reportedly feeling an urgency to invest in AI capabilities, Nvidia is well positioned to ride the wave via its chip sales and cloud businesses. For Q1, the company forecast revenues of $6.5 billion, topping Wall Street’s own $6.35 billion forecasts.Technical ViewsNvidiaThe rally off last year’s lows has seen the stock breaking out above the bear trend line from 2022 highs and more recently, above the 193.10 level resistance. This is a key pivot for the stock and while above here the focus is on a further move higher towards the 285.60. Should price slip back below the level, the next support will be the rising trend line off Q3 2022 lows.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-nvidia-beats-forecasts-and-signals-growth-ahead
via IFTTT

USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to Previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise to Previous swing high TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1.35142 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is, and take profit at 1.37038 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci Line are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-previous-swing-high
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: AUDNZD Plunges on RBNZ Hike - FOMC Minutes Next

RBNZ Hikes Again – More to Come, But Slower PaceThe RBNZ hiked rates once again overnight at its February MPR meeting. Despite signals in November of a further .75% hike to come, the bank ultimately opted for a smaller hike in the face of the recent weather disasters in New Zealand which have ravaged parts of the country and are expected to exacerbate the economic issues facing the country. Along with the smaller hike, the RBNZ also forecast a further pivot in April with a projected .25% hike. Finally, while the bank maintained its peak rate level, the RBNZ said it now expects to take longer to hit that rate with a slower pace of tightening now planned over 2023. However, the RBNZ was clear in reaffirming that it will continue with tightening this year in order to drive inflation down.AUD SuffersThe reaction in NZD was most pronounced against AUD with AUDZND plunging on the back of the meeting. AUD has been under pressure this week since the RBA meeting minutes despite the minutes revealing a more hawkish skew among members. Looking ahead, the pair looks vulnerable to further downside should today’s FOMC minutes provoke a fresh rally in USD, with AUD likely to bear the brunt of the move.Technical ViewsAUDNZDThe rally in AUDNZD off last year’s lows has been framed by a rising wedge pattern. With plenty of bearish divergence into recent highs, risks of a reversal lower are growing. Price is now testing below the structure and is currently probing support at 1.0954. If we break below here, there is open water down to 1.0750 next, in line with weakening momentum studies.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-audnzd-plunges-on-rbnz-hike-fomc-minutes-next
via IFTTT

Should you consolidate your small pensions pots?

The Department for Work and Pensions is consulting on helping workers who hold a number of small pension pots. But here's what you need to think about if you have several pension pots and are thinking about consolidating them.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/pensions/605667/small-pension-pots-consolidation
via IFTTT

The Net Zero energy revolution is anything but green

Dominic Frisby explains why the world may struggle to hit its Net Zero energy goals as the environmental and monetary costs mount.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605716/net-zero-energy-revolution
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, February 22, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 22, 2023Stocks Suffer From PMI StrengthAsian Equities retreated overnight, following US markets lower. Growth and inflation expectations increased following a robust round of PMI data. PMI prints from western economies provided a more optimistic outlook for growth, however, the inflation read was more ambiguous with supply chain disruptions easing but service sector inflation remaining elevated. The data docket in the European session is scant today, investors will eye German IFO business survey which markets expect to deliver further signs of improving conditions. Yesterday’s Eurozone flash PMI rose to a nine-month high led by service sector activity, impressively the manufacturing read also signalled a return to growth, aided by indications of further reductions in supply chain constraints. Expect today’s headline IFO index to rise to 91.5 from 90.2, supported by incremental improvements in current conditions and expectations, this  would be a fifth consecutive uptick to the best levels since midsummer of 2022The Federal Market Open Committee will release the minutes of its February policy meeting this evening, the minutes, however, may now be a little stale given subsequent robust US data releases and predominantly hawkish rhetoric from policymakers. Nevertheless, these recent data releases reinforce the hawkish mantra that is likely to come out of the minutes that a policy ‘pivot’ remains a stretch target, as markets have repriced, believing the Fed will raise rates by a further 75bp by the summer and investors have abandoned the notion of rate cuts later this year..FX Options Expiration New York CutN/AOvernight News of NoteStock Futures Inch Higher As Investors Brace For Fed MinutesFed Minutes To Show Support Level For Larger Hikes, Higher PeakBiden Fed Vice Chair Search Set To Focus On Ex-Treasury OfficialsUS Plan To Impose New Sanctions On Russian Individuals, EntitiesUS House Panel Expected To Hold Hearing On Policy About ChinaChina Call Russia Ties ‘Solid As A Rock’ Amid Ukraine Peace PushBoJ Member Tamura Calls For Keeping Ultra-Easy Policy For NowJapan Benchmark Yield Tops Above 0.5% BoJ Cap In Second DayAustralia Wage Growth Weaker Than Expected As Rate Bets PareRBNZ Hikes 50Bps And Flags More To Come As Inflation Too HighPM Sunak Secures Backing Of Key Brexiters For NI Protocol DealGerman Business Morale Set For Fifth Consecutive ImprovementCoinbase See Quarterly Loss, Crypto Winter Hits Trading Volume(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4030Primary support is 3970Primary objective is 4384Below 3960 opens 389020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0850Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.22Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6910Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23600Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-22-2023
via IFTTT