Imperial Brands has an 8.3% yield – but what’s the catch?

Tobacco company Imperial Brands boasts an impressive dividend yield, and the shares look cheap. But investors should beware, says Rupert Hargreaves. Here’s why.

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ECB Minutes Helped EURUSD to Foster 1.05 Foothold, Further Recovery Remains Uncertain

The ECB has finally taken the lead. The minutes of the ECB meeting released yesterday showed that the influence of hawks in the Governing Council is increasing and willingness of the ECB to move to tightening as early as possible has increased significantly. A rate hike in July becomes the base case for markets, but the size of the hike remains uncertain: 25 bp or 50 bp.The minutes of the meeting clearly showed that concerns of the ECB policymakers about inflation have notably increased. Four pro-inflationary factors were identified, the impact of which could linger indefinitely, hence late policy action starts to carry excessive risks: Inflation pressures in supply chains. The conflict in Ukraine and the tough fight against covid in China, according to the ECB, create a situation where import inflation may affect consumer prices for a long time; Wage inflation concerns. Although the ECB does not see a strong rise in wages right now, the decline in real incomes is likely to force workers to demand higher compensation, which could eventually result in an inflationary shock to the economy; Green transition. Reducing dependence on fossil fuels and increasing EU energy independence is a structural factor that will push consumer prices up at an accelerated pace; Trends in deglobalization. Globalization has had a disinflationary effect on the economy for a long time, due to the fact that there has been a return of the production capacities of European enterprises back to the EU, this will also have pro-inflationary consequences. As for the proposed monetary policy decisions in the short term, several policymakers said that loose policy was "no longer consistent with inflation outlook", suggesting that the normalization process should start earlier and be done faster. Otherwise, inflation expectations will continue to rise and this will be a stain on the reputation of the ECB, which spent almost a decade trying QE and failed to bring inflation to the target level, and now risks not being able to suppress it in time. Late action could lead to a second round of inflation effects that would have negative repercussions on financial markets, undermine confidence in the regulator's policy and be accompanied by increased economic costs.EURUSD soared after release of the minutes of the ECB meeting in April to 1.057, but the upsurge stalled on Friday. The prospect of a further rally will depend on trends in the reopening of the Chinese economy, dynamics of oil prices, as well as a trend in escalation in relations with Russia. Technically, the pair may rise to two-week high of 1.0640-50 in the short-term, however, without solid fundamentals, the upside momentum is likely to turn into selling and the pair will continue to remain in the 1.05-1.0650 range:

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Coffee Survives Amid Global Demand Concerns

Coffee prices have recently held on amid global demand concerns, including the Chinese government saying it will continue its strict Shanghai-Beijing pandemic lockdown, and the Russia-Ukraine war restricting Brazil’s coffee exports to those countries. In today’s trading, #Coffee recovered from early losses and moved higher as the strengthening of the Brazilian real hampered export sales from Brazilian coffee producers. The real strengthened against the US Dollar, amid declining US Dollar liquidity due to profit taking. Brazil is grappling with persistent shocks that saw consumer prices rise more than 12% in April, the highest level since October 2003.

Coffee prices are starting to lose upward momentum, as the risk of freezing temperatures in Brazil recedes. Forecasters say winds and clouds in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, are preventing a severe drop in temperatures, thus eliminating the threat of frost damaging crop development.

In mid-April, Brazil’s coffee export board Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports fell by 5.8% y/y. A factor in favor of arabica is the smaller supply of coffee from Colombia, the world’s second largest producer of arabica. The Federation of Colombian Coffee Growers reported earlier in May that Colombian April coffee exports fell by -18% y/y due to lower production. Colombia’s coffee production fell 13% in March, and was down 16% in February.

Meanwhile, concerns about a smaller supply of coffee (robusta) from Vietnam supported coffee prices. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association warned that high fertilizer prices are likely to force coffee farmers to reduce fertilizer use, which could lead to a 10% drop in next season’s coffee production.

Technical Overview

The price of #Coffee (Exp. June) has held above 200.00 for the last 7 months, though the momentum of the rally seems to be starting to erode, after recording a peak price of 259.89 in February 2022 as the outbreak of war reduced global coffee exports. Even during January to May, the price movement produced bearish waves, which can be seen from the break of the 220.10 and 229.80 bullish wave structures in March and the recording of a new low of 209.70 at that time, before pulling back to 237.15. The decline from the 2nd peak in April even surpassed the fresh support of 209.70 by recording a lower low (LL) at 201.85 and since then, the price has climbed back to the upside but remains below the 237.15 peak price.

#Coffee, D1

Technically, the price tends to be neutral holding above the 200-day EMA, but limited below the Kumo. A move above 228.85 will test the resistance at 237.15. As long as 237.15 holds, the outlook to the downside is open for a retest of a fresh 201.85 low. And a break of this level will be projected for FE 100% at 187.00 (from drawdowns of 259.89-209.70 and 237.15).

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Investment Bank Outlook 20-05-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightRisk sentiment has seemingly improved somewhat overnight with the main Asian stock markets as well as the US and European stock market futures recovering. The recovery came on the back of evidence that Chinese lenders have moved to ease the funding conditions by lowering their five-year loan prime rate by a record amount. The move seemingly helped ease somewhat the growing fears in the markets that the persistent tightening of global financial conditions on the back of continuing central bank policy normalisation can precipitate the next cyclical downturn.Given that the USD has been at the epicentre of the market growth angst of late, the easing concerns have given the currency some reprieve although the USD still lagged behind the likes of the CHF, CAD and JPY. The AUD emerged as the biggest underperformer overnight with investors shifting their attention to the general election in Australia on 21 May ahead of which recent polls have been predicting a victory for the opposition ALP party. We further note that, historically, AUD/USD tended to underperform its fundamentals in the event of an ALP election victory, and modestly outperform its fundamentals in the event of a LNP coalition victory. The rise of the ‘teal’ independents further increased the chances of a hung parliament and thus added to the political headwinds for the AUD.CIBCFX FlowsChina cuts 5-year LPR lifted Mainland stock indices and slight influence to the rest but little effect on currency markets.New Zealand April trade turned to a surplus of NZ$584bn, however March deficit revised to -NZ$581mio from -NZ$392mio. NZ$ barely moved, equity indices are up but the Kiwi slipped.AU$ slipped off mornings high 0.70485. Looks like some people are nervous about the Federal elections this weekend and offloaded AU$ as well as AU$NZ$. There was a headline NSW Health has identified a probable case of monkeypox in a recently returned traveller to Europe. The said bids around 0.7040 disappeared and AU$ printed 0.70105. Average size strike at 0.7050 will expire today. On the elections, there has been speculation that it is so divided that they could end up with a hung parliament. During a discussion, our trader Jon believes AU$ will be sold if Labour wins or hung parliament but given the modest shifts in policy with both parties proposing more spending, AU$ could end up back to square one.Yes, it is Goto-bi Day but the price action this morning is linked to US yields and the equity market. Japanese importers bought a round of $YEN which kept the pair supported above 127.70, profit taking from speculators drove the pair above 128.00. Japanese retail day traders have added to long and will likely unwind on the way up. Nothing worth mentioning in terms of options, note there are large topside strikes due on Monday at 128.17 and 129.00.Not exciting at all for the EUR$, it drifted lower while $YEN climbed, pretty boring. Nothing worth mentioning in terms of options, note there are large topside strikes due on Monday at 128.17 and 129.00.UK May consumer confidence fell to record low of -40 as concern grows about whether households will be able to afford rising utility, food and fuel bills. Consumers have little hope for the outlook for the wider economy, which contracted in March and is expected to shrink further this year. Bloomberg wrote economists have warned in April when the index dropped to -38 that such a low reading was consistent with Britain’s economy falling into recession, because it had closely tracked GDP over the past five decades. Hardly any reaction in FX, drifted lower in similar pattern to the EUR$.Witnessed buying of $CAD by Tokyo banks for the fix but the move up to 1.2835 was when the oil futures fell. WTI July saw a quick move from $109.35 to $108.70, it struggled to recover. This left some pressure on the Loonie against the US$. The latest news Canada said it will ban Huawei and ZTE from providing 5G services. Will this decision force the Chinese to reverse the decision? Take note that $2.63bn of 1.2730 matures today.

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Market Update – May 20 – Stock at record lows

Major indexes, all were underwater, in and out of bear market territory as worries about growth and concerns over inflation weighed heavily on investor and consumer sentiment. Companies continue to warn over the impacts of elevated inflation, including rising costs of labor, materials, energy, and transportation which are taking a big bite out of profits. And data are also showing signs of slowing growth. Treasuries retained a haven bid. Investors also sought refuge in Treasuries amid the volatility in stocks. A plunge in the May Philly Fed index and a slide in existing home sales to two-year lows, a drop in the leading index, and erosion in jobless claims all exacerbated fears over the economy. Comments from the Fed’s George show the FOMC on course for more 50 bps hikes.

Overnight:  Japan rose at a pace above 2% for the first time in more than 13 years,. China’s central bank cut five year LPR by 15 bp. The 5-year Loan Prime Rate was reduced a record amount to 4.45% from 4.6% previously. Most had expected the PBOC to trim the rate by 5-10 bp, according to a Bloomberg survey, and the move is hoped to support the struggling property sector as it will reduce mortgage cost and may revive demand, despite Covid lockdowns. For new mortgages the new lower rate will apply immediately – existing mortgages won’t be impacted until next year at the earliest. Still, the announcement will help to bolster confidence in China’s struggling economy and counterbalance some of the headwinds to the global economy. UK retail sales rebounded in April, with sales up 1.4% m/m, after contracting -1.4% m/m in the previous month.

• USDIndex has slumped to 102.80 from a peak of 103.15. – worst week since early February against majors weighed down by a retreat in Treasury yields and fatigue after the currency’s breathless 10%, 14-week surge.
• Equities – Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 2.2% and 1.7% respectively. Nikkei and ASX closed with gains of 1.3% and 1.2% after another decline in Wall Street. USA500 
• Yields 10-year lifted 2.0 bp to 2.86%, Germany’s 10-year has moved up 3.5 bp to 0.98%, while bonds found support in Japan, Australia, New Zealand, with curve flattening.
• Oil  is holding above the $110 per barrel
• Gold up to $1848.
• FX markets – USDJPY retests 128 mark once again, EURUSD holds at week’s highs at 1.0593, GBPUSD slipped 0.11% to $1.2436, but up 1.49% for the week.

Today – The calendar includes BoE Pill and ECB’s Lane speech and EU consumer Confidence for May.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) VIX (-2.36%)- Found a floor at 28.32 MAs have flattened, MACD signal line & histogram are negatively configured, RSI & Stochastics are OS  turning higher currently. H1 ATR 0.34, Daily ATR 3.22.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Daily Market Outlook, May 20, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 20, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed Set On Half-Point Hikes, Undeterred By Stock Slump Fed's Kashkari: Strong Finances Could Mean More To Do Labour Market In Focus Jobless Claims Hit 4-Month High Sec Yellen Reject Idea Of Fed Raising 2% Inflation Target White House Believe Biden, Xi To Talk In Coming Weeks China Cuts Key Rate By Record To Boost Ailing Economy China’s Stimulus Tops $5Tln As Covid Zero Hits Economy Shanghai See First Covid Outside Quarantine In Six Days Japan Consumer Prices Post Biggest Rise In Seven Years Australia Election Enters Final Days As Tight Result Likely Russia Deny UN Plea To Permit Ukraine Grain Shipments UK Consumer Confidence Drops Lowest Level Since 1974The Day Ahead Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific are higher this morning, shrugging off the negative close on Wall Street. Sentiment was boosted by a reduction in China’s 5-year loan prime rate to 4.45%, a key reference rate for mortgage rates, in a move that is aimed at supporting the property sector. Meanwhile, Japanese CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, rose to 2.1%, above the Bank of Japan’s target, although it is not likely to alter the central bank’s bias towards maintaining monetary policy stimulus. UK economic data released earlier this morning highlighted pressures on consumers’ spending power from the impact of high inflation amid the cost-of-living crisis. The GfK consumer confidence survey’s headline index fell 2 points to a record low of -40 which is lower than during the Covid19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, official figures showed the volume of retail sales bouncing back in April by 1.4%m/m, but it follows a sizeable decline in March and therefore provides only limited assurance. Year-on-year sales were still down significantly. More broadly, the figures show that the volume of sales in recent months have not kept pace with outlays in value terms, meaning that consumers are spending more for the same amount of goods. The economics calendar for the rest of the day is threadbare as the week draws to a close. The Bank of England’s Chief Economist and MPC member, Huw Pill, is scheduled to deliver a speech in a visit to Wales this morning at 8.30am. It should be an interesting talk as he is expected to give his views on the outlook and challenges for the UK economy. Markets will be watching to see if he can provide more clarity on the Bank’s mixed messages regarding the potential policy outlook as rate setters navigate a slowdown in economic activity but uncomfortably high inflation. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Centeno (Bank of Portugal Governor) will speak at a conference in Lisbon. The May flash estimate of Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to have stabilised close to the previous level, having fallen sharply after the invasion of Ukraine and the consequential impact on inflation and economic uncertainty. Expect overall consumer confidence to edge up to -21.5 in May from -22.0 in April, still significantly weaker than at the start of the year.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0340-50 (506M), 1.0395-05 (510M) 1.0415-20 (1.1BLN), 1.0475 (715M), 1.0500-10 (660M) 1.0540-50 (814M), 1.0575 (670M), 1.0600 (430M) 1.0625 (219M) GBP/USD: 1.2300 (313M), 1.2355 (305M), 1.2405 (360M) 1.2490-00 (270M), 1.2650 (295M) EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (200M), 0.8430 (300M) EUR/JPY: 134.25-30 (370M), 136.35 (367M), 136.55 (354M) AUD/USD: 0.7050 (545M) USD/CAD: 1.2730 (2.63BLN), 1.2775 (450M), 1.2800 (510M) 1.2850-55 (610M), 1.3000 (1.08BLN)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above Resistance is at the 38.2% of the 1.1185/1.0349 move at 1.0668 EUR/USD stopped trending lower and will likely consolidate in a range More short-covering possible if US yields continue to move lower EUR/USD VWAP flattening Support seen at 1.0470/50 break would encourage a retest of cycle lowsGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. Off 0.2% as the USD firmed with E-mini S&P +0.75% and UST yields firmer China mortgage rate cuts supported sentiment, stocks in Asia Cable trades towards the base of a 1.2437-1.2472 range, light flow on D3 UK consumer morale hits lowest since records began in 1974 Morale at these levels, with cost of living soaring usually means recession Volatility still clouding near-term direction Offers at 1.25 daily VWAP remains bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 127 Bearish below USD/JPY tracks away from 127.03 spike low o/n, Asia 127.67-128.21 Japanese importer buys again into pre-weekend, Gotobi Tokyo fix Market heavy from 128.00 on specs, other sales, market thin post-fix Despite importer bid, some tip near-term bias maybe down Eyes on key support between 126.95-127.05, break below seen bearish 128+ resistance, massive option expiries Monday 128.15-17, 128.99-129.00 Going forward, USD/JPY moves may depend on moves in US yieldsAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD opened +1.32% at 0.7047 after USD fell on US growth concerns Risk assets in Asia rallied on the back of China LPR cut The AXJ index moved 1.2% higher while Dalian iron ore rose 3.0% Despite those rallies the AUD/USD fell to a session low at 0.7009 Heading into the afternoon the AUD/USD is trading around 0.7015 Support eyed at .6950 Resistance is at the the daily VWAP .7050

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USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 128.86Pivot: 128.088Support: 127.162Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our 1st support at 127.162 where our horizontal swing low support is at from our pivot at 128.088 in line with horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for the 1st resistance at 128.86 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

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GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.25452Pivot: 1.23939Support: 1.23312Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the Ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.23939 where the horizontal overlap support is to our 1st resistance at 1.25452 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.23312 where the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci projection is.

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What's behind Sri Lanka’s crippling debt crisis?

Sri Lanka has been hit by a triple whammy of economic shocks and has gone to the IMF for a bailout. It may just be the first domino to fall in a global debt crisis.

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Make uncommon profits from helping cure rare diseases

Treatments for medical conditions with only a small number of sufferers can still be very attractive for pharmaceutical companies and investors because of government incentives, says Dr Mike Tubbs.

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Flight from Risk Gains Momentum, Setting Stage for a Rally in Gold

The flight from risk assets becomes more apparent on growing concerns about global slowdown and even recession, in particular, markets appear to be pricing in that the US economy will not be able to carry out soft landing (lowering inflation while maintaining positive GDP growth) that the Fed pledged to deliver in spite of aggressive tightening cycle, which led to textbook reactions in various asset classes: stock prices fell, bonds, as safe-haven instruments, rose in price, and the dollar fell, as foreign investors apparently reduced their exposure in US papers.The magnitude of collapse in US equity markets on Wednesday (the worst in two years), which saw S&P 500 falling by 4% and Nasdaq erasing 5% from its market cap ensured proliferation of bearish momentum to Thursday trading. SPX futures broke below another key threshold of 3900, European indices suffered losses by an average of 2%. Further events are likely to unfold according to the classic scenario: the Fed will bend at some stage of equity sell-off, soften the rhetoric, which will become the main signal for a reversal. But given that most FOMC officials, including Powell, use the word "committed" in their comments regarding the short-term future of the policy, it may take quite a while for markets to see a welcomed policy shift.The speed and the magnitude of equity markets downside should also imply there are concerns about potential downbeat surprises in corporate earnings and firms’ forward guidance, which, in principle, have already started to materialize. For example, $200bn Cisco released “shocking” earnings report yesterday that fell short of expectations in many respects (including forecast of negative growth in revenue in 4Q against expectations of positive growth), which led to a price drop of 20%:The situation with covid in China remains controversial, while Shanghai gradually lifts lockdowns, an increase in the number of new cases in Beijing and Tianjin indicates a high risk of new social restrictions in these cities. In particular, a lockdown in Tianjin, a major port city in China, is a major risk for the markets, as it could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, which are well-known for their inflation effects in the countries which import China goods. As the positive trend in the reopening of Chinese economy started to show cracks oil prices were hit hard erasing 8.5% since Wednesday afternoon.The decline in oil prices and reduced investment demand for the dollar allowed EURUSD to reclaim 1.05 level. Minutes of the ECB meeting are due today, which may offer additional support to the battered Euro as based on the comments of ECB officials, the commitment to fight inflation is gaining broad support in the Governing Council, which is likely to be reflected in the Minutes today. EU money markets price in 100 bp rate hikes from the ECB this year, respectively, the ECB should soon begin to actively catch up with expectations, otherwise the Euro may quickly cede ground to the dollar as monetary policy gap will set to widen again.The rebound in demand for safe-heavens is not yet so clear, but is already visible in gold, given that we are at an early stage of factoring in recession expectations, the upside potential for gold prices, provided recession expectations take roots, is high. From the viewpoint of technical analysis, the price of gold has been in a well-formed bearish corridor since mid-April, while on May 16 we saw the first signs of a bull market. A breakout of the upper bound of the corridor (~1835-1840 dollars per ounce) could trigger extension of the rally:

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Market Update – May 19 – Fears mount

Stock markets sold off, after a slide on Wall Street, with tech stocks in Hong Kong particularly under pressure. Tencent slumped after reporting no revenue and individual company reports apart markets are concerned by the impact of China’s zero Covid policy, the Ukraine war and fear that inflation will get out of control, despite aggressive central bank action that are adding to the headwinds to the global recovery. Earnings reports from retail giants added to concerns that high inflation would slow global growth, with Target warning of a bigger margin hit due to rising fuel and freight costs as it reported its quarterly profit had halved. One day earlier, Walmart warned of similar margin squeezes. Bonds were supported in Australia and New Zealand, despite a decline in Australia’s jobless number. The 10-year Treasury yield has picked up 1.3 bp though and the Bund yield is up 0.6 bp at 1.01% in early trade. Oil rebounded to $107.90 whilst Gold appreciated to $1814. Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 3.9% – the lowest level in almost 50 years, as employment rose 4k over the month.

• USDIndex recovered to 103.88 
• Equities – Nikkei lost -1.9%, the ASX -1.7%, while Hang Seng and CSI300 are down -2.5% and -0.2% respectively. USA100 plunged cratered -4.73%, with the USA500 -4.03% lower, and the USA30 off -3.73%.
• Yields 10- and 30-year rates plunged over 11 bps intraday to lows of 2.875% and 3.065%, respectively.
• Oil down to 105.15 –Bloomberg cited “people familiar with the data” as saying that API data will report a drop of 5 million barrels in gasoline inventories for last week
• Gold up to $1830.
• FX markets – GBP and EUR falling to parity against the dollar. However, USDJPY weaken to 128.15 after surging to a 20-year peak at 130.85 in late April.

Today – The calendar includes ECB Meeting Accounts, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand trade balance and Japanese inflation.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL – Gapped down to 105.14, which filled up immediately. MAs have flattened, MACD signal line & histogram are negatively confirgured, RSI 38.56, H1 ATR 1.07, Daily ATR 5.45.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 129.606Pivot: 128.986Support: 128.168Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our 1st support at 128.168 where our horizontal swing low support is at from our pivot at 128.986 in line with horizontal overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for the 1st resistance at 129.606 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci projection.

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Investment Bank Outlook 19-05-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnight Investors have refocused their concerns on US households’ ability to weather rate hikes as well as rising prices. While the US retail sales data earlier in the week offered some relief on this front, weak earnings results from major US retailers reversed this relief. All Asian bourses were trading lower and S&P500 futures in the green at the time of writing. Despite soft labour market data, the AUD was the top performer in G10 FX during the Asian session closely followed by other risk[1]correlated currencies such as the NZD, NOK and SEK. The reversal of S&P500 futures led to a squeeze in short risk positions in G10 FX. The JPY was the underperformer during the Asian session.CIBCFX FlowsA comment from Fed Res Harker first echoing the same sentiment as the rest that he expects 50 bps hikes at June, July meetings and sees hikes at measured pace thereafter.The Financial Times published a report that large while Japanese have enjoyed the YEN weakness, Japan Iron and Steel Federation warned that the YEN’s fall presents a risk for Japan’s manufacturers for the first time. Benefits from weak YEN have diminished because it has caused great difficulties especially for smaller businesses who are dependent on imports of fuel and raw materials. US equity futures and Nikkei opened up weak, flight to safety propped up US Treasuries, $YEN has weakened from early move to 128.465. Macro names would probably to fading any potential rally, maybe to 128.50. Usual buyers, the Mrs. Watanabe have been adding to their long positions. I was told that importers bought this morning, pretty decent too from below 128.15, lifted $YEN into and after the fix. There are two large option strikes due Monday, $1.72bn at 128.00 and $1.3bn at 129.00.$CAD, which ended Toronto at 1.2890 slipped to 1.28675 after Reuters News flashed a headline that Chinese authorities have lifted a years-long ban on canola seed imports from two of Canada's biggest grain handlers. Confirmed by Canadian Trade Min Mary Ng and Agriculture Min Marie-Claude Bibeau, China has reinstated access to its market for two Canadian companies that China Customs had suspended from exporting canola seed to China since March 2019.Australia’s April unemployment rate improved to 3.9% as expected, lowest in 48 years but data was mixed. Part timers shifted to full time, total employment gain 4k as supposed to expectations of +30k, participation rate was lowered to 66.3% from 66.4%. Overall, it was not a weak data, AU$ slipped little but not real big deal. Market was positive towards the NZ Budget and lifted AU$ along. Intraday resistance at 0.7050 where average sized option rolls off tomorrow. RBA Kent will be speaking on Monday at the Kanga News DCM Summit; Elis will speak at the UDIA 2022 National Conference. RBA rate decision on June 7.In the cost-of-living Budget 2022, New Zealand Fin Min Grant Robertson tried to balance the immediate political and pay packet pressures created by rising prices. The government expects to spend NZ$128bn this year and will run a deficit NZ$19bn, slightly lower than forecast in December. Government to spend NZ$1bn to ease impact of faster inflation, gives cash payments to 2.1mio people. Market was optimistic over the budget and NZ$ ticked up and broke above 0.6305. Even the rising UST yields failed to deter buyers. Strong intraday resistance near 0.6380.What goes down must come up and the EUR$ climbed back on to 1.05-handle. Initial buying was linked to EUR¥ but later was because of weak US$ and higher AU$, NZ$. Nothing much to talk about in terms of option strikes.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-19-05-2022"
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