GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 1.21593Pivot: 1.20546 Support: 1.1931Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 1.20546 where the pullback resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 1.21593 where the pullback resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 1.1931 where the pullback support and 50% fibonacci retracement are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation27"
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BCOUSD，H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 108.94Pivot: 103.92Support: 95.905Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving in a descending trend channel and RSI showing a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the pivot at 103.92 at the pullback support to the 1st support at the 95.905 at the swing low in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 108.94 at the overlap resistance in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bcousd-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation"
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The best packaged bank accounts

Packaged bank accounts can offer great value with useful additional perks – but get it wrong and you could be out of pocket. Ruth Jackson Kirby outlines the best packaged bank accounts on the market today.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/bank-accounts/605159/the-best-packaged-bank-accounts
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EU Gas Supply’s Theme Overshadows ECB in Driving EURUSD Short-Term Moves

Safety plays prevail in FX, equity and bond markets on Tuesday, as evidenced by lower prices for risk assets, a strengthening USD and increased demand for long-term bonds. Reports about Russia gas flows to the EU are becoming almost the only driver of short-term sentiment for the Euro and the British pound, overshadowing even the policy of central banks. For example, reports that Russia restored gas supply via the Nord Stream 1 at 40% of normal capacity after the completion of maintenance, helped investors to price out worst-case scenario of EU’s energy crisis, causing the EURUSD to rise from 1.00 to 1.0250. However, the optimism did not last long, today's reports that gas flows decreased from 40% to 20% sent the European and British currencies into a nosedive. The EURUSD traded below 1.0150 and the GBPUSD broke the 1.20 foothold.The European Commission, together with the countries of the bloc, developed a plan to “proactively reduce gas consumption” due to the risks of a complete halt in gas flows from Russia through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Reduced energy consumption will most likely cause a recession in the EU and these apprehensions cause risk premia on European risk assets to build up. The German DAX is down by 0.9% today, the index of Europe's largest companies STOXX 500 fell by 0.5%.Mounting EU recession risks force investors to buy more long-term bonds: the yield to maturity of 10-year German bonds fell by approximately 10 bp from yesterday to 0.94%, the lowest level since the end of May:Oil prices rose on expectations of rising demand as a substitute to gas, although the gains were moderate. Brent spot price climbed above $107 per barrel.The situation is likely to continue to escalate as the EU seeks ways to reduce consumption while Russia continues to cut supplies. That is, the tug-of-war continues. Accordingly, the outlook for an EU economic damage is poised to deteriorate further, which will likely drive the European currency lower. The risk that the EURUSD will soon test parity is set to increase and speculative pressure will likely contribute as well on the presence of a clear-cut bearish factor.From a technical point of view, the EURUSD left the short-term range and entered the bearish channel, which increases the odds that the pair will retest parity:The set-up in the GBPUSD is similar: theprice failed to break through the upper bound of the trend corridor and maysoon halt the recovery within the short-term upward channel. In this case, thenext target may be the level of 1.18:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eu-gas-supply-theme-overshadows-ecb-in-driving-eurusd-short-term-moves"
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Chinese stocks are cheap – but for good reasons

Chinese stocks are trading at an “undeniably cheap” 11.9 times earnings. But they are cheap for good reasons, and this may not be the buying opportunity it appears to be.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/china-stockmarkets/605158/chinese-stocks-are-cheap-but-for-good-reasons
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Collecting rare whisky: a £16m tipple served with froth

The market in rare whisky is looking very bubbly, says Chris Carter, with a 1975 cask of recently selling for £16m.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/wine/605153/collecting-rare-whisky-gpb16m-tipple
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Gold Futures ( GC1! ), H4 Potential For Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 1738.4Pivot: 1721.1Support: 1679.3Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving within a descending channel and RSI moving in a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 1721.1 where the pullback resistance is to 1st support at 1679.3 in line with 100% fibonacci projection and swing low support on the daily timeframe .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot and rise to 1st resistance at 1738.4 where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and swing high resistance are.Fundamentals:As major markets released weaker than expected PMI data, ringing alarm bells for further economic slowdown and increasing the risk of an unavoidable global recession, investors shift their attention toward Gold as a safe haven alternative.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-futures-gc1-h4-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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Micro GBP/USD Futures (M6B1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 1.2181Pivot: 1.2061Support: 1.1955Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1.2061 where the pullback support is to the 1st resistance at 1.2181 where the overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1.1955 where the pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:Due to the current political uncertainty in the UK, rampant inflation and relatively modest interest rate increases, we have a bearish bias on the GBPUSD . We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/micro-gbp-usd-futures-m6b1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise26"
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MICRO E-MINI S&P500 INDEX FUTURES (MES1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 4091.00Pivot: 3998.25Support: 3738.00Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving in a descending trendline and RSI also showing a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the pivot at 3998.25 at the swing high in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 3738.00 at the multiple siwng lows.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise above the support structure at the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 4091.00 at the overlap resistance in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:US indexes moved moderately higher with better-than-expected US economic reports. Hence, we have a bullish view on the micro e-mini S&P500 index.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/micro-e-mini-s-and-p500-index-futures-mes1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop26"
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NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 0.63185Pivot: 0.62470Support: 0.61850Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.62470 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.63185 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.61850 where the overlap support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/new-zealand-dollar-futures-6n1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise26"
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Micro CAD/USD Futures (MCD1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 0.7863Pivot: 0.7795Support: 0.7728Preferred Case:On the H4, microwith price moving in an ascending trendline and moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.7795 at the multiple swing high in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 0.7863 at the pullback resistance in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 0.7728 at the overlap swing low.Fundamentals:No major news

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/micro-cad-usd-futures-mcd1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise26"
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Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 141.125Pivot: 138.275Support: 135.500Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving along an ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 138.275 where the swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken the pivot , we would expect bullish momentum to carry prices to 1st resistance at 141.125 where the pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and -27.2% fibonacci expansion.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 135.500 where the overlap support is.Fundamentals:Due to the strong cattle prices and fears about demand settling down, we have a bullish view on live cattle.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/live-cattle-futures-le1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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Are interest rates set to go higher than anyone thinks possible?

With inflation raging at 10% or more, central banks may have to raise interest rates to similar levels to keep it under control. But have they got the bottle to do that, asks Dominic Frisby?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/inflation/605152/are-interest-rates-set-to-go-higher-than-anyone-thinks-possible
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Investment Bank Outlook 26-07-2022

Societe GeneraleFocus switches to the US, even if there’s a very strong consensus about what the FOMC will decide on Wednesday. After a week in which the market was more focused on the ECB, Italy and natural gas flows from Russian to Germany, than anything happening elsewhere, attention switches back to the US – a bit, anyway. The market seems overwhelmingly convinced that the FOMC will hike rates by 75bp on Wednesday, and pretty confident that will be accompanied by a strong signal that there’s another 75bp coming in September. At the same time, the market is increasingly comfortable with the idea that Fed Funds will peak in late 2022, rather than in 2023. ¢ The danger of course, is that against the backdrop of a strong consensus, the FOMC is a damp squib and quickly forgotten ahead of Thursday’s GDP report, where a 0.5% q/q SAAR consensus ides a -1.6% to +2% range. If the data do throw up a negative print, it’ll trigger lots more recession chatter after Q1s =1.6%. This would not be a technical recession, as much as recession on a technicality, but fear of the recession to come would only grow. ¢I’ve listened to any number of discussions of the US economic outlook and what I think is missing, is awareness that what makes this difficult, is that policy only affects the inflation rate with a lag -and a big one at that. The sheer number of discrete shocks hitting the global economy and the lags before policy reaction takes effect, are why I think avoiding recession will be so hard, but the good news is that whenever I hear talk of a ‘hard landing’ these days, it’s with reference to 2009/2009. That’s good news because if 2008/09 is now the benchmark for a hard landing, the chances of this one being soft by comparison, are very high. The bad news is that it still won’t be fun.As long as recession fears are to the fore, US Treasuries will be capped. As long as they are capped, USD/JPY will be too, but more importantly, Bund yields will be capped, and so will EUR/JPY. The dollar can retain a risk aversion bid, but EUR/JPY looks to me to have turned the corner. EUR/JPY downside would be significant in case of any further reduction in the flow of gas through pipelines from Russia.INGEUR: EU decision on gas reduction in focusThe EUR continued to show some relatively elevated intraday volatility yesterday, despite remaining largely attached to the 1.0200 gravity line. Today, all eyes will be on the EU emergency meeting to discuss last week’s European Commission proposal to reduce gas consumption by 15%. The original EC draft has been heavily revised and the new proposal reportedly includes a number of exceptions and lower targets based on each country’s specific circumstances. The meeting follows Gazprom’s announcement that it will further cut gas flows via the Nord Stream link to around 20% of the pipeline’s capacity due to technical issues.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-26-07-2022"
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