Events to Look Out for Next Week

Leading indicators such as US and Chinese Inflation and GDP from the UK and Japan dominate the releases next week. Meanwhile the economic releases will be closely watching also ECB and BOC meeting especially after ECB officials over recent days have backed our view that the central bank will leave policy settings unchanged at next week’s council meeting. Markets are focusing on growth, the US economy is widely seen a outpacing the Eurozone and other peers this year, thanks in large part to the massive upcoming fiscal spending spree.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication

Monday – 8 March 2021

---

• BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 10:00)
• Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Gross Domestic Product should remain steady in Q4 and reveal headline growth of 12.8% y/y and 3% q/q.

Tuesday – 9 March 2021

---

• Gross Domestic Product and Employment change (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German GDP growth was unexpectedly revised up to 0.3% q/q in the final reading for Q4 2020 – from 0.1% q/q reported initially. Still a sizeable contraction, but a much better result than developments in the EU as a whole. Not surprisingly consumption was hit severely by virus developments and the return of stay-home-orders at the end of last year. Hence the preliminary Q4 reading for Eurozone should steadied to -0.6% q/q and -5.0% y/y. The Eurozone’s employment change however is anticipated to dip at 0.3% q/q in the Q4 with an overall reading at -2.0% y/y.
• RBA’S Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 22:00)

Wednesday – 10 March 2021

---

• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to decline in February at 0.4% m/m from 1.0% last month, with the headline at -0.4% y/y.
• Consumer Price Index (USD, 12:30) – The US January CPI is expected
• Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The BoC is expected to hold rates steady at 0.25% as its extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.”

Thursday – 11 March 2021

---

• Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45-13:30) –Comments from ECB officials over recent days have backed the view that the central bank will leave policy settings unchanged at next week’s council meeting. President Lagarde may deliver a dovish presser and remind markets once again that the enhanced PEPP program offers a considerable degree of flexibility, but at the same time, is likely to re-affirm the central scenario of strengthening growth in the second half of the year. Indeed, updated staff projections are unlikely to bring major revisions and on the inflation front could actually come in a tad higher than in December – at least for this year, as cost pressures in supply chains are building.
• Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – Last week US reports revealed a 9k initial claims rise to 745k into the final week of February that likely reflected a modest boost from the polar vortex and Texas freeze, alongside a big continuing claims drop of -124k to to a modestly weaker than assumed 4,295k The insured jobless rate fell to a 3.0% new cycle-low from a 3.1 prior cycle-low.

Friday – 12 March 2021

---

• Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production are expected to have fallen, with both providing a downwards contribution of -0.2% m/m and -0.3% m/m in January.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German prelim. HICP inflation for September is anticipated to remain at -0.1% y/y.
• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada employment plunged -1993.8k in April, nearly doubling the -1010.7k tumble in March to leave a massive and rapid reversal in the labour market as firms cut jobs as most of the economy ceased to function amid the stay at home orders the began around the middle of March. For May employment should revealed a 4,000k drop in jobs, doubling again last months number.
• Michigan Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment climbed 4.5 points to 81.4 in the preliminary December reading. That’s much better than expected but the move back up to the 89.1 level from March has been restrained by various headwinds, with the spike in the virus and renewed lockdowns the current difficulty.

Click here to access the our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /218873/
via IFTTT