Daily Market Outlook, September 2nd, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, September 2nd, 2021 Overnight Headlines US Weighs Quota System In Bid To End EU Feud On Steel Tariffs New York Region Faces Flash Flood Emergency, Tornado Watch China Pres Xi To Talk On Services Trade As US Tensions Simmer China Warns US Climate Assistance At Risk On Political Conflict BoJ Kataoka Warn Of Heightening Risks To Economic Recovery RBA To Announce Reduction Bond Purchases Delay, ANZ Finds Delta Surge Sees Split In Australian States’ Covid-Zero Strategy Europe Waning Crisis Triggers ECB Debate On Ending Stimulus UK August Shopper Numbers Improve, Narrows Pre-Covid Gap Oil Lower After OPEC+ Alliance Agrees To Return More Barrels DOJ Readying Google Antitrust Lawsuit Over Ad-Tech Business FTSE 100 Loses Tech Star As Just Eat Takeaway Gets The Boot The Day Ahead Asian equities remained flat as investors awaited vital job data from the US to determine when the Federal Reserve would begin to reduce the massive stimulus that has buoyed financial markets. On predictions that the pressure from Beijing's regulatory crackdown has peaked, Hong Kong equities gained amid a continued rise in Chinese technology firms. China's stock market rose, as traders weighed a move by the central bank to support smaller businesses and therefore cushion the economy. The stock market in Australia, which is heavily dependent on commodities, has fallen due to weakness in materials such as iron ore. The price of US equities futures fluctuated. The NASDAQ100 index rose to an all-time high overnight, but the S&P500 index remained unchanged. Trading took on a defensive tone as economic data pointed to a weaker labor market revival in the US. Ten-year Treasury yields have stayed stable at roughly 1.3%. The US payrolls data on Friday will provide insight into the economy as well as a deadline for the Fed's $120 billion monthly bond purchases to be reduced.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby) EUR/USD: 1.1640 (EU494.8M), 1.2000 (EU405.8M), 1.1845 (EU402.7M) USD/JPY: 112.75 ($500M), 111.50 ($500M), 108.00 ($500M) USD/CAD: 1.2500 ($690M), 1.2600 ($640M), 1.2355 ($615M) Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.1850 Bullish above Idles in tight range as Asia seeks fresh catalyst EUR/USD opened +0.26% at 1.1840 after USD weakened on weaker ADP jobs. In a quiet Asian session EUR/USD eked out a 1.1837/46 range Resistance is at the 38.2 of 1.2266/1.1664 move at 1.1894 Sellers are tipped between 1.1860/70 to slow attempts higher Support comes in at the 55-day MA at 1.1816 and 21-day MA at 1.1798 EUR/USD starting to trend higher again ahead of key US jobs on FridayGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.3830 Bullish above. Firmer, but resistance above 1.3800 remains resilient +0.05% in a quiet 1.3768-1.3780 range - GBP resilient as USD a touch firmer No significant UK data or BoE events today, so the USD and risk to lead Charts; 21 day Bollinger bands contract, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict Neutral daily momentum studies - bias lower while 1.3811 200 DMA caps Sustained 1.3811 break would open the door to 1.3931 upper 21 day Bolli band Wednesday's 1.3732 low then Friday's 1.3679 base first significant supports NY 1.3799 high then 1.3811 200 daily moving average initial resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 109 Bearish below Sideways ahead of more US jobs data, crosses bid USD/JPY sideways in Asia after fall from 110.42 yesterday, 109.92-110.12 EBS Weak US employment data yesterday... behind fall, Powell correct? US yields also off highs yesterday, Treasury 10s @1.302% USD/JPY back below 110.09-11 wafer-thin daily Ichi cloud, 110.14 55-DMA Support/bids from area of 200-HMA at 109.92, 100-DMA 109.70 below Option expiries both sides - 109.50-70 total $1.25 bln, 110.00-16 $589 mln Massive $1.5 bln in expiries tomorrow at 110.00 strike Risk in Asia more off than on, Nikkei +0.1% @28,476, E-Minis -0.1% @4517.75 EUR/JPY off 130.45 o/n high, Asia 130.19-36, hawkish ECB view GBP/JPY 151.31-65, AUD/JPY 80.85-81.16, NZD/JPY 77.56-83.AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7320 Bullish above Eases slightly as risk assets in Asia lack momentum AUD/USD opened +0.74% at 0.7368 after AUD outperformed when USD weakened... It traded to 0.7374 early before drifting lower through the morning The low was 0.7356 and it is just below 0.7360 into the afternoon There was no reaction to better than expected Aus trade data for July... Resistance is at the 55-day MA at 0.7392 with sellers tipped at 0.7385/90 Support at the 21-day MA at 0.7298 with bids ahead eyed at 0.7330/40 AUD strength on crosses surprising given weakness in some key commodities

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-september-2nd-2021"
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