Market Spotlight: Trading The August NFP

US Labour Reports Up NextToday’s US labour reports are drawing a lot of attention from the market, perhaps even more so than usual. With the US Dollar trading lower on the back of Powell’s Jackson Hole comments, traders will be looking to today’s data to either hammer the greenback down further or affect a bullish reversal.On the headline NFP release, the forecast is for a decline to 750k jobs from the prior month’s 943k. Given the negative margin here, there is room for an upside surprise, though it would likely take an increase on the prior month, to send the Dollar higher. For the unemployment rate, the market is looking for the trend to continue and for the rate to fall back to 5.2% from 5.4% prior while average hourly earnings are expected to decrease to 0.3% from 0.4% prior.Average hourly earnings could be the real key to this month’s data. Even if jobs mark a decline on the prior month, a strong beat on the earnings number might still be enough to send the Dollar higher. If we see both the headline NFP and hourly earnings both beat expectations, this would likely cause the biggest upside reaction.Where to Trade the NFP?USDCHFIf USD does break higher today on a data beat, USDCHF looks a prime candidate for an upside move. The pair has been caught in a contracting triangle pattern recently, highlighting the lack of momentum in the market, along with indicators having gone flat. If price breaks the .9189 level, bulls can target a run up to .9288 initially.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-the-august-nfp"
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