Daily Market Outlook, May 4, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 4, 2022 Overnight Headlines Shanghai Lockdown Exit Delayed By Stubborn Community Spread Australia Retail Sales Hit Record, Underlining Economic Momentum Goldman Sachs Forecast The RBA Cash Rate At 2.6% By The End Of 2022 RBNZ Gov Orr: Cannot Rule Out A Global Recession In Coming Months RBNZ Says Sharp Housing Correction ‘Plausible’ As Rates Rise New Zealand Jobless Rate Holds Record Low As Wages Gain ECB Director Schnabel Believes A Rate Hike In July Is Possible EU To Unveil Plan To Replace Two-Thirds Of Russian Gas This Year EU's Borrell: New Russia Sanctions To Hit Oil, Cut More Banks From SWIFT BRC: Shop Prices In Britain Rise, Fastest Rate Since 2011, Worse To Come Aussie Retail Sales Surprises To The Upside And Supports AUD/USD US Junk Bonds Drop To Lowest In Over Two Years Ahead Of Fed Meeting Oil Climbs As Investors Weigh Inventory Estimates, China’s Curbs China’s Independent Refiners Start Buying Russian Oil At Steep Discounts Chinese Tech Stocks Slide As SEC Probe Didi, US Equity Futures WaverFX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0550 (329M), 1.0570 (464M), 1.0600 (1.92BLN) 1.0700 (1.14BLN) USD/JPY: 129.00 (380M), 130.50 (740M) GBP/USD: 1.2425 (405M), 1.2555-60 (247M) AUD/USD: 0.7000 (234M), 0.7100 (734M), 0.7130 (374M) 0.7250 (570M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0950 Bullish above Consolidates ahead of key Fed decision EUR/USD opened +0.10% at 1.0519 after whippy US session Interest was low in Asia as market readies for Fed decision later today Powell's press conference will likely dictate short-term price action... Support is at last week's 1.0469 low and break targets 2017 low at 1.0340GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.30 Bullish above. Touch softer ahead of the Fed, as inflation flares -0.05% at the base of a quiet 1.2488-1.2515 range on D3, pre FOMC UK shop prices rise at fastest rate since 2011 - BRC Rising energy prices and supply chain issues unlikely to ease short term Adds to the BoE pressure on the May 5, as the economy falters Charts; momentum studies conflict, 5, 10 & 21 day and week MA's slide 21 day Bollinger bands fall, which remains a strong bearish trending setup Targets a test of the 1.2360 low in July 2020 then 1.2252 June 2020 base Close above 1.2624 10 day moving average would undermine downside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 125 Bearish below OMC shapes up as the trigger for the next move Steady in a very tight 130.05-130.19 range, with Japan on holiday FX majors saw little interest in Asia, as markets await the FOMC Fed expected to hike 50pts - focus on Fed statement and press conference The tone of the Federal Reserve's outlook will drive UST yields and USD Friday's 129.32 low, and last week's 131.25 high are the initial key levels Longer term 5, 10 and 21 day, week and month moving averages head higher Unusual and powerful bullish signals - 126.26 Kijun line is key support Long term target is 135.04/20 monthly highs in February and January 2002AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7300 Bearish below AUD/USD opened +0.62% after outperforming due to aggressive RBA hike Goldman call that RBA will hike 50 BP in both June & July underpinned AUD/USD traded above 0.7100 and received added boost from better Aus retail sales... It traded above 0.7110 and traded to a session high at 0.7117 Heading into the afternoon it is settled around 0.7110 Resistance is at 0.7145/50 where yesterday's high and 10-day MA converge A break above 0.7150 would suggest a bottom is forming Support is at Monday's 0.7030 low with bids ahead of 0.7000

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-may-4-2022"
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