Oil prices boosted by rumours around OPEC+ production cuts

Crude oil managed to rally slightly yesterday, supported by rumours of production cuts by OPEC+ masking concerns of demand shortages, as China is still implementing COVID-19-related activity restrictions. USOil closed higher in the $78.83 per barrel area, after briefly touching the $79.60 per barrel area and trades above the key $80.00 level today (Wednesday) at $80.20. 

A slightly stronger Dollar did not weigh on oil prices as the in-built support from Monday still remained, when OPEC+ delegates said the group could consider deeper crude output supply cuts when they meet later, if needed to balance supply and demand.

Of course, the rise in oil prices was not without support, after China said it would support vaccinations among its senior citizens, a move that would lead to an easing of pandemic restrictions and a faster reopening of the economy.

Concerns over China’s energy demand have continued to weaken crude oil prices in recent times. China reported a record 38,808 new Covid infections on Sunday, which could lead to more pandemic lockdowns curbing economic growth and energy demand. Widespread protests, however, could pressure the government to rethink its Zero-Covid policy.

OPEC+ will meet on 4 December; they have agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day throughout 2023.

Technical Overview

Total oil price gains from January 2022 have been paid, in Monday’s trading. USOil’s January 2022 opening price stands at 75.37, while the second peak 121.29 pullback recorded a low price of 73.61 in Monday’s trading (28/11) which saw a divergence between the low price and the Oscillation indicator. Technically, the price still has the potential to test the 50% FR retracement of the 80.09 and 126.33 pullback lows, if the price remains below the recent neckline at 81.23. Furthermore, the price is seen to be still below the 200-day EMA, although the oversold sign is a technical indicator that could be considered.

USOIL, H4

Intraday bias looks neutral again, below 80.00, and more in anticipation of the rumours circulating regarding a possible production cut by OPEC+. Trading above the 81.23 neckline could bring oil to test 92.88, conversely a move below the recent low would only confirm concerns that China’s economic growth is still in the red and bring the possibility of prices to test the 70.00 level.

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

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Help your portfolio take off with helium

Dominic Frisby looks at the coldest substance on earth, helium, and explains why now’s the time to buy.

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Daily Market Outlook, November 30, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 30, 2022 ‘Markets Await Fed Chair Powell’s Speech This Evening...’Wall Street witnessed another intraday sell-off on the back of adverse OPEC headlines that suggested the cartel will leave output unchanged, while markets were anticipating a potential cut in production at their upcoming meeting given the global growth impact of China's ongoing Covid crisis. Asian equity markets and US futures staged another rebound overnight as investors continue to bet on an eventual China reopening and anticipated supportive policy measures, however, data overnight suggested that the Chinese economy continues to be impacted by Covid with factory and services data weakening further into contractionary territory. In the UK data released this morning showed a further economic decline with the Lloyds Business Barometer falling again in November and the British Retail Consortium showing a further increase in shop price inflation, with a notable surge in food price inflation to an eye-watering 12.4% year over year.For the day ahead, in the Eurozone investors will be focused on CPI, with markets braced for a continuation of double-digit levels of inflation, although, a softening from the 10.6% print in October to 10.4% for November is expected, the first decline in 17 months as a result of the ECB's record rate increases in recent months. In the US markets will eye GDP data which is expected to print a positive 2.7% for Q3, while ADP employment data is expected to confirm further tightness in the labour market ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, however, these releases will play second fiddle today to FOMC Chair Powell, who is due to give remarks this evening on the economic outlook and the US employment situation. His comment will be parsed by investors for clues as to the rate path trajectory and hints as to the terminal level for interest rates in the US, given the recent hawkishness and suggestions by Fed officials of a 5-7% target zone, further confirmation of this hawkish view will likely weigh on risk sentiment.Overnight HeadlinesChina Economic Activity Falls As Covid Cases Surge To RecordIMF Chief Flags Possible Downgrade In China's GDP ForecastJapan Factory Output Falls Again On Global Slowdown, Weak Chip DemandAustralia Monthly Inflation Slows In October, Hints At Possible PeakUS House Plans To Move Fast To Avert Rail Strike Despite ObjectionsInflation In UK Shops Rises To Highest Level On RecordDollar Near One-Week High As Traders Prepare For Powell, Payrolls TestsOil Rises A Third Day On OPEC+ Cut Chatter, Falling StockpilesOPEC+ Leans Toward Maintaining Flat Production, Delegates SayChevron To Send First Venezuelan Crude Shipment To US By Late DecemberAsia Stocks Choppy As Investors Cautious After Disappointing China DataChinese City Hosting Key iPhone Plant Lifts Covid LockdownHPE Projects Sales That Top Estimates On Office UpgradesCyber Monday Sets Sales Record As Shoppers Splurge On Toys, ElectronicsTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3930/40TechnicalsPrimary support is 3930/40Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3930 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0340TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0340Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0485Failure below 1.03 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0250 (493M), 1.0290-00 (1.32BLN), 1.0330 (367M) 1.0340-50 (705M), 1.0370-80 (1.11BLN), 1.0405-15 (800M) 1.0420-25 (619M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1950TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1950Primary upside objective 1.22Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.21Failure below 1.19 opens a test of 1.177020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.2050 (941M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 140TechnicalsPrimary resistance is 140Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 142.20 opens a test of 14320 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 138.50 (457M), 139.00 (295M), 140.00 (270M), 140.25 (810M)EUR/JPY: 140.00 (470M), 144.00 (290M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650TechnicalsPrimary support is .6650Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6660 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6600 (577M), 0.6645 (217M), 0.6700 (254M), 0.6735 (708M) 0.6775 (331M)NZD/USD: 0.6300 (270M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16100TechnicalsIntraday 16100 is primary resistancePrimary upside objective is 17100Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 16750Failure 16000 opens a test of 1550020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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IMF Warns Of China Econ Downgrade Over Covid Policy

IMF Concerns Over China Covid PolicyThe focus on China continues to build this week. Following ugly scenes of police clashing with protestors at the weekend, the scrutiny of the government’s zero-covid policy has intensified leading the IMF to warn that it might be forced to downgrade its Chinese economic outlook unless the policy is abandoned. IMF MD Georgieva made these comments yesterday in Berlin, warning that growing uncertainty linked to record defaults in the property sector and the broader disruption caused by lockdowns and business closures, meant that the crisis-lender might be forced to cut its outlook. This comes on the back of the lender cutting its China growth forecasts in October to 3.2% this year and 4.4% next year.PMI Data DropsThe impact of recent lockdowns was reflected very clearly in the latest PMI data released overnight. The Chinese manufacturing PMI was seen falling to 48 in November, below the 49 level the market was looking for. This marks the weakest reading since April, when China was reeling in the wake of two month’s worth of widespread lockdowns. Non-manufacturing was hit even harder, falling to 46.7 from 48 prior. With both readings well into contractionary territory, the outlook for overall GDP is tuning lower into the end of the year.China Announces CrackdownGiven that covid cases in China are soaring, it seems hard to think the Chinese government will u-turn on its covid policy. Indeed, the Chinese government has warned that it will crackdown even harder on anyone taking part in any further protests. This will include stricter monitoring from the Chinese internet watchdog targeting anyone deemed to be liking or creating content in opposition to the government’s covid policy. This comes on the back of further violent clashes between protestors and police yesterday in Guangzhou. Reuters has confirmed footage of protestors and police engaged in street battles.Two-Way RisksLooking ahead, the outlook appears quite clear. If China maintains its zero covid policy in coming months the economy will suffer sharply as a result. Furthermore, continued clashes between protestors and police risk spilling over into a national security situation, which will further harm the economic outlook for China, hurting global risk sentiment. However, if the government takes the unlikely step of scrapping its zero covid policy, we can expect risk sentiment to rise sharply in response.Technical ViewsShanghai CompositeThe rally off recent lows around the 2867.1980 level has seen the marker breaking above the 3043.1853 level and above the bear channel resistance. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a further push higher while price holds above 3043.1853. The next hurdle for bulls is the 3185.9209 level which, if broken turns focus to the 3347.6880 level next.

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BTC / ETH / XRP – Cryptos on the brink!

The world of cryptocurrencies is living a year that will remain engraved in the memories, with a series of dark signs that have undermined the confidence of investors (Luna, FTX) and the change in monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, which to fight against inflation has operated an extremely aggressive rate hike, causing a tense flow in favour of the safe haven that is the Dollar, with the USDIndex currently around the 106.00 level.

The Fed’s stated objective is to bring inflation down to 2%, and to do this it has not hesitated to raise rates by 0.75 basis points, four times in a row. This action has caused inflation to fall from a peak of 9.1% in June to 7.7% by October 2022, but has not steepened the yield curve which remains deeply inverted, particularly the 2 and 10 year, a phenomenon which generally indicates a coming recession.

source: Refinitiv

The market expects a slowdown in the rate hike of +50 bps on December 14 2022, At the November 1-2 meeting a majority of members of the US Central Bank pronounced themselves in favour of a slowdown in the pace of interest rate increases, however this morning voices of Fed officials are raised in favor of a rate hike, including John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, who said on Monday that he expects inflation to fall, while stressing that core inflation, especially in a booming labour market causing “rapid” wage growth, is the most difficult to combat. (see chart below).

source: Cmegroup

“Inflation is far too high, and persistently high inflation undermines the ability of our economy to reach its full potential,” Williams said. Williams, the New York Fed president,  expects the core PCE index to slow from 5.1% to 3%; 3.5% in 2023, driven by reduced supply chain disruptions and slower global growth, the latter of which is expected to push the unemployment rate to between 4.5% and 5% by the end of next year, Williams said. A slowdown by the US Central Bank, does little to reassure investors in cryptocurrencies and so-called risky assets, especially at a time when global growth is on the brink and China is struggling with an economy shaken by the return of COVID.

Technical Analysis BTC, Daily

The BTC price is currently at the $16405 level below its KIJUN (Lv) and Tenkan (Lj) clouds; the Lagging Span (Lb) is below the cloud and its peers clearly meaning that it is in a bearish momentum. This pullback could lead the price to its lowest level at $13914, and if it is broken, it could reach its support at the $9903 level. On the other hand, if the price rises again, it could reach $23915.

Technical Analysis ETH, Daily

The ETH price is currently at the $1204 level below its KIJUN cloud (Lv) and is above its Tenkan (Lj); the Lagging Span (Lb) is below the cloud and its peers meaning hesitation. The price could reach its first support at $1064 if broken it could reach the $908 level a second time. On the other hand, if the price goes up again, it could reach $1374.

Technical Analysis XRP, Daily

The XRP price is currently at the level of $0.3836 below its KIJUN cloud (Lv) and above its Tenkan (Lj); the Lagging Span (Lb) is above the cloud and below its peers clearly signifying hesitation. The price could reach its first support at $0.3567 and if it is broken it could reach the level of $0.3380 a second time. On the other hand, if the price goes up again, it could reach $0.3988.

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst

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Market Update – November 30

• The USDIndex slightly below 1-week ahead amid reports of a softer stance on Covid emerging in China’s official rhetoric, which is keeping hopes alive that there won’t be a move back to tighter restrictions. All eyes are on an expected hawkish stance from Chair Powell’s speech today.
• Japan’s factory output fell for a second consecutive month in October, a
• Stocks –The Nikkei closed with a -0.2% loss, the ASX managed a 0.4% gain and Hang Seng and CSI300 are currently up 1.1% and 0.1% respectively. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. US futures are underperforming, but also managing slight gains. Wall Street closed mixed with the NASDAQ dropping -0.59% on weakness in tech and the rise in yields.
• Japan’s factory output fell for a 2nd consecutive month in October, China’s factory activity contracted at a faster pace in November, weighed down by softening global demand
• JPY – is holding in the 138-139 range.
• USOil – supported ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on December 4. Energy was lifted by easing in China jitters.
• AUD & NZD on a downward pressure from worse than expected Chinese manufacturing surveys.
• Gold – extendes gain to $1757.

Today – Attention is on Powell’s speech later today, who is likely to reinforce yesterday’s hawkish Fedspeak from Williams, Bullard, and Mester who all stressed rates are headed higher still and could remain so for some time. Elsewhere is EU HCPI, US ADP and Q3 GDP.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (-0.25%), declines to 1.7816 from 1.7930. MAs aligning lower and RSI at 34.8 and MACD histogram & signal line remain below 0. H1 ATR 0.00267, Daily ATR 0.01538.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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13 ways to save on your energy bill

As the weather gets colder and bills rise, we outline 13 ways you can save on your energy bills.

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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation29

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:4173.25Pivot:3913.25Support:3751.75Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish trend continues, price may move towards the 4173.25 resistance level , which contains the 78.6% Fibonacci Fibonacci line.Alternative Scenario:Price could retest the pivot line at 3913.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

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Oats Futures ( ZOK2022 ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance:745.500Pivot:613.250Support:665.000 Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to head back down the the support level at 665.000, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price may go back up and head towards the resistance at 745.500 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

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The IndeX Files 29-11-2022

Equities Rebound As China Unrest CalmsEquities markets look to be stabilising today following initial losses suffered yesterday as traders reacted with caution to events in China. A wave of civil unrest spread across China on the back of 10 people dying in a tower fire in Urumqi province. Locals accused the rescue operation of being hampered by the government’s zero-covid policy and protests broke out calling for an end to the restrictions. These protests grew in number and location over the weekend and led to clashes between police and protesters with many suggesting the protests eventually became about more than just the government’s covid policy.However, with Chinese authorities having seemingly put an end to the protests for now, the sell off in equities prices has paused and most indices are in the green today. Looking ahead, there is some speculation that the Chinese government might announce an end to its zero-covid policy, which would be firmly welcomes by markets. However, this appears at odds with the ongoing covid restrictions being announced in Shanghai today.Away from China, the focus remains on December FOMC expectations. The Fed is widely tipped to opt for smaller 50bps hike. Any incoming data or Fed commentary this week supporting that view will likely allow equities room to move higher. However, any data or comments suggesting room for a further, large hike, will weigh on equities. US GDP on Thursday and Jobs data on Friday will be the headline events to watch.Technical ViewsDAXThe breakout in the DAX has seen the market extending beyond the recent 13672.31 level and the 14170.79 also. The rally has paused for now, just shy of testing the 14703.98 level and with momentum studies waning, some pull back might be seen. However, while price holds above the 14170.79 level, the focus remains on further upside near-term.S&P 500The S&P continues to grind higher within the bullish channel which has framed the rally off the YTD lows. For now, price is holding above the 3910 level and while above here, the focus is on a break of the bearish trend line from YTD highs and a test of the 4153.50 level next.FTSEThe rally in the FTSE is ongoing this week with price breaking out to its highest level since August. Price is currently stalled into a test of the bear channel top, having rallied almost 13% off the October lows, with the 7575.8 level sitting just above market. To the downside, 7362.6 remains key support.NIKKEIThe rally off the September lows has seen the market breaking above the 27422.9 level. Price is currently testing the 28356.6 level resistance, following an earlier attempt at a breakout. Momentum studies are waning here, suggesting room for correction. However, while above 27422.9, focus is on a further topside break.

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Market Update – November 29 – Tightening Tilt, COVID control & Month End flows

• The USDIndex rallied to 106.70 in the previous session but formed a correction in Asia session to 106.00 ahead of a COVID-19 press briefing in China that is spurring hopes of a potential easing in the country’s strict pandemic restrictions.
• Fed Officials Signal Higher rates: Hawkish reminders from key Fed officials Williams, Bullard, and Brainard that rates will have to go higher helped weigh on the markets in Monday action. Wall Street was weaker overnight on the back of Williams’s and Bullard’s comments, and slipped further as Brainard tripled down on the rate outlook.
• US houses prices fall like 2008
• Stocks – Global stocks rise after yesterday’s dip. US100 and US500 dropped -1.58% and 1.54%, respectively, with the US30 off -1.45% amid broadbased weakness. Today however the rumours of an earlier easing of strict COVID-19 restrictions along wihth vaccination for over 80-year old, found buyers in stock market with Chinese stocks rebound. Hang Seng and CSI 300 bounced 4% and 3% respectively. ASX and Nikkei closed narrowly mixed. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.
• EUR – reversed from 5-month peak. Currently at 1.0360. ECB’s Lagarde said overnight that inflation had not peaked and it risked turning out even higher than currently expected, hinting at a series of interest rate hikes ahead.
• JPY along with Yuan, Aussie and Kiwi on bid.
• GBP – turns again below 1.20 at 1.1987.
• USOil – jumps to 80.00 as China refines its approach for dealing with protest and Covid control. All eyes are on OPEC+ meeting in the weekend. EU fails to agree on Russian oil price cap once again.
• Gold – fully recovered yesterday’s losses, currently at$1754.

Today – Swiss GDP, German HICP , Canadian Q3 GDP, US Consumer Confidence and BOE Governor Bailey speech.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD(+1.10%), bounces to 0.6235. MAs aligning higher and RSI at 63 but MACD histogram & signal line remain below 0. H1 ATR 0.00147, Daily ATR 0.00962.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Weekly Market Overview: 28 November 2022

The Dollar Index starts the new week on the back of the dovish November FOMC meeting minutes and the shifting risk complex in the market.

Dollar

The Dollar begins the new week retreating to a 9-day low on the back of an increased risk sentiment in the market. Factors driving this selling bias in the Dollar can be mainly attributed to the dovish assessment that was made of the November FOMC meeting minutes that were released last week, which cemented the increasing probability of a smaller 50 basis point rate hike in December as opposed to the 75 that previously had a higher probability. Heading into the week, investors will be eyeing the rising Covid-19 cases in China and the resulting protests from citizens, as well as the expected speeches from FOMC members James Bullard and John Williams.

Technical Analysis (D1)

In terms of market structure, price has come to a significant juncture by invalidating the uptrend drawn from Feb 2022. Since then, price has been moving to the downside and sellers are about to reach a key level of interest located around the 104.12 area where the previous higher-low was formed. If bulls can defend this area, the narrative could still remain bullish, however the opposite applies if the area is invalidated by sellers.

Euro

The Euro kicks off the week on the front foot as it reaches a two-week high above the 1.045 area. Factors driving this buying interest in the European common currency can be linked to Dollar dynamics as some weakness driven by lower US yields puts pressure on the Dollar. Heading into the week, investors will be eyeing the narrative from the ECB concerning their hiking cycle, as well as the increasing recession risks driven by energy concerns and record high inflation.

Technical Analysis (D1)

In terms of market structure, price has invalidated the longer-term downtrend formed from mid-May 2022 and has done so in an impulsive break of structure. Since then, the bulls have been driving price, creating higher-highs and higher-lows. The next line in the sand to be challenged will be the 1.061 area.

Pound

Sterling begins the week maintaining the bullish bias and trajectory it’s been on recently. Factors contributing to the buying interest in the British currency can be firmly linked to the weakness in the demand for the Dollar as well as increasing expectations from investors around the BoE continuing to raise interest rates to fight off stubbornly high inflation.

Technical Analysis (D1)

In terms of market structure, price has invalidated the longer-term trendline. Since then, the bulls have been in control of the narrative and threatening to test the next line in the sand located around the 1.227 area where there could potentially be sellers waiting to drive price back down.

Gold

Gold heads into the new week with the bulls firmly in control of the narrative as price heads towards a two-week high. Factors contributing to this exuberance can be linked to less aggressive rate hikes being priced into the pipeline from the FED going into their December meeting, which is lending the yellow metal firm buying interest. Additionally, the rising Covid-19 fears in China are adding to the impetus seen on Gold as investors flee from risk assets towards the safe-haven status that Gold provides in times of economic uncertainty.

Technical Analysis (D1)

In terms of market structure, Gold has just broken out of the outer trendline on the downtrend, and since then, bulls have been in control of price. Currently the next line in the sand for sellers to defend is the $1,809 area. If breached, this could give bulls the impetus to drive the narrative further and if it holds, new sellers might be interested in testing the bulls.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ofentse Waisi 

Financial Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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EURUSD Targeting 1.0620... MS Month End Model Update

Technical & Trade ViewEURUSDTrade ViewBias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0390TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0390Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0485Failure below 1.03 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0240-50 (2.4BN), 1.0250 (2.0BN), 1.0300 (737M), 1.0350 (377M), 1.0390-00 (1.06BN), 1.0405-15 (777M),  1.0425 (1.0BN), 1.0450-55 (708M) Institutional InsightsAnalysts at Morgan Stanley note ‘Equity market performance appears to influence trading volumes and returns: We published a foundation report to show that local equity returns in G10 are linked to appreciating local currencies versus USD in the last week of the month, possibly due to asset manager flows (see Introducing Our FX Month-End Signal Framework). For November 2022 the model expects the US dollar to underperform: Our signal suggests that USD should weaken versus all currencies in the G10 this month-end. The FX month-end strategy considering the last week of the month has not performed as well over the past few months as it did earlier in the year. Last month, the dollar gained against most G10 currencies at month-end, though positive equity returns led to our signal suggesting dollar weakness.

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Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance:3.6920Pivot:3.5545Support:3.3840Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the Pivot at 3.5545, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is, before heading towards the support level at 3.3840, where the previous swing low is.Alternative Scenario:Price may go back up towards the resistance line at 3.6920, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

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Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:2506Pivot:2422Support:2280Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing back above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the 1st resistance at 2506 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and 100% Fibonacci projection line are located.Alternative Scenario:Price head back down towards the Pivot line at 2422, where the 50% Fibonacci line and 61.8% Fibonacci projection line are located.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

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EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 1.05090Pivot:1.01315Support:1.03600Preferred Case:The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.05090 where the previous swing high is located. Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down breaking the support at 1.03600 where the 161.8% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the pivot at 1.01315, where the previous swing high is located. Fundamentals:There are no major news

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/euro-fx-futures-6e1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
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Activision Blizzard：Pressured Following Possible Regulator Intervention

Activision Blizzard (named after the merger between Activision and Vivendi Games in 2008) is known as the largest US gaming company by market capitalization (currently over $57B). The company engages in delivering content through premium and free-to-play offerings, generating revenue from full-game and in-game sales, subscriptions, and by licensing software to third-party or related-party companies that distribute Blizzard products.

Fig.1: Top Gaming Companies by Market Capitalization. Source： Statista

While the trading volume of the US stock market remained thin last week in accordance with the Thanksgiving holidays, the share price of Activision Blizzard plunged over 4% as there was a report that the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit, thereby halting Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard that is worth $69B. The stock ended up as one of the worst intraday performers in the US100 index.

According to Zacks Research, the video game industry has been doing exceptionally well during the Covid pandemic, with overall sales revenue rising 26% and hitting a record high at $191B. However, sales growth began deteriorating since 2022 as more entertainment options became available following economic reopening. In addition, soaring inflation continued to hurt spending on discretionary items. Nevertheless, market participants expect the video game industry to steadily bounce back later in Q4 2022 as sales start picking up. There will be multiple title releases in the coming year, which could serve as a short-term positive catalyst for sales growth.

Fig.2: Activision Blizzard’s Net Revenue and Net Income. Source： Statista

Last year, Activision Blizzard’s net revenue reached $8.8B, up over 8% from a year ago. Nearly 74% of the revenue was generated from in-game, subscription and others, while the rest was generated from product sales. On the other hand, net income hit $2.7B, which was also the highest record ever achieved.

Fig.3: Activision Blizzard’s Net Revenue, by region. Source： Statista

At least 3% of Activision Blizzard’s net revenue derived from China, the world’s biggest market for online games. Recently, the company announced suspension of its services in China beyond January 2023 following failure in extending licensing agreement with local firm NetEase. Coupled with age and playing time restrictions imposed by the Chinese government, the gaming company’s revenues may be adversely affected.

Fig.4: Reported Sales of Activision Blizzard versus Analyst Forecast. Source： CNN Business

Activision Blizzard shall report its earnings for Q4 2022 on 9^th February next year. Consensus estimate for sales stood at $3.1B, up over 70% from the previous quarter and 24% from the same period last year.

Fig.5: Reported EPS of Activision Blizzard versus Analyst Forecast. Source: CNN Business

EPS is expected to hit $1.51, more than double the previous quarter. In Q4 2021, the figure was $1.25. All in all, reported sales and EPS for the year are expected to hit $8.1B and $3.02 respectively, below those printed in 2020 and 2021.

Technical Analysis:

Fig.6: Activision Blizzard Historical Price. Source：Google Finance

The #ActivisionBliz (ATVI.s) share price has been riding on a strong bullish trend after gaining support from the pivotal retrace in September 2018. It hit an all-time high in February 2021, at $104.48, before undergoing a massive sell-off throughout 2021 to hit a new low since 22^nd March 2020 at $56.35. The asset once again rebounded higher from Dec 2021-Jan 2022, but since then has remained capped below $86.

Technically, #ActivisionBliz last closed below $74 (FR 38.2%). The FR 50.0% ($80) and the 100-week SMA serves as the next resistance. On the contrary, as long as the asset price remains pressured below $74, support levels to watch include $68 (FR 23.6%), $56.35 (2021 low) and psychological level $50.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Silver and Oil likely to Head North Soon

Silver got back to the broken resistance area formed between levels 20.90 and 21.30 and then pulled back. Now, the price of silver has reversed towards the north, leaving behind the broken range. The asset is targeting the resistance at the level of 24.75. So, let’s see what is going to happen next.After a small rise from the supporting level of 15625, Bitcoin has been forming small candles for a couple of days in a row. This might signify the upcoming formation of the bullish flag. Bitcoin is likely to target the level of 18500 next.The price of oil is moving in the supporting zone formed between the levels 82.38 and 83.79. Hence, oil might potentially jump at the beginning of the next trading week. So, let’s observe oil price movements in the supporting zone.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-and-oil-likely-to-head-north-soon"
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Market Update – November 28 – Global risk appetite

• The USDIndex held fractionally lower below 106.00 following a short week and a hit in risk sentiment and stoked uncertainty.
• USDJPY drifts by 0.80% to 138 in a blow to risk appetite, by protests in China, a manufacturing powerhouse and Southeast Asia’s top trading partner, which flared for a third day and spread. – How the government would react to the the wave of civil disobedience when COVID cases are rising ?
• Chinese Stocks & Yuan slump!  – The dissent toward President Xi is greater than ever, as Shangain protest urge for Xi resignation .
• Stocks – Wall Street closed in the red, while gapped down today as global equities tumled on unerst China (NASDAQ -0.52%, S&P -0.03%. Apple to lose 6 million iphones professionals from tumult at China plant  (Friday’s close -1.96%) – production could slump by 30% in its main Zhengzhou plant in central China.
• EUR – rebounded to 1.0395.   
• GBP – holds below 200-day SMA, 1.2065.

• USOil – -3.11% tumbled from 2-month support at $75 to $73.90 today, as china’s covid zero  is put to the test, clouding the energy demand outook.
• Gold – at $1750, under pressure along with overal commodity market.    
• BTC – slimps as uncertainty prevails. Currently at $16,168.

Today – There is a heavy data calendar that includes nonfarm payrolls on Friday. ECB President Lagarde & FOMC Member Bullard Speak today.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.80%) used as a liquid proxy for the yuan declined to 92.14. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling,  RSI 22 & OS, H1 ATR 0.2566, Daily ATR 0.9899.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Live Analysis – Weekly Wrap

The Dollar Index has rallied from 8-day lows at 105.50 mark today, to test 106.00 resistance following the Thanksgiving Holiday yesterday. A shortened trading day in the US today closes the week ahead of the next weeks final jobs data for 2022.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Middle-income households to receive £15,000 energy efficiency grant

You could get up to £15,000 to help make you home more energy efficient – we have the details on who could get it and when.

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Events to Look Out For Next Week

It’s a massive week ahead, with a heavy dose of global data releases including US and Canada jobs, Eurozone Inflation, OPEC Meeting, Chinese PMI, Canada GDP and central bankers’ speeches. So far, markets have taken the Fed minutes as a sign that US policy makers are supporting a tapering of rate hikes, which puts pressure on the US Dollar and supported stock, hence remarks from Chair Powell and President Lagarde could dominate attention next week, along with NFP.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday  – 28 November 2022

---

• Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.4% m/m in October from 0.6% last month.
• ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 14:00)

Tuesday – 29 November 2022

---

• Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 08:00) – GDP for Q3 is expected lower at 0.2% q/q and headline at 1.6% y/y from 2.8% y/y.
• Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – GDP for Q3 is expected lower at 0.4% q/q from 0.8% q/q but headline should rise to 3.5% y/y from 3.3% y/y.
• CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to ease to 100.0 from 102.5 in October, versus a 17-month low of 95.7 in July. We expect the present situation index to fall to a 19-month low of 133.3 from 138.9 in October. The expectations index is expected to fall to 77.8 from 78.1 in October, versus a 9-year low of 65.3 in July. We expect the 1-year inflation measure to hold steady from 7.0% in October, versus an all-time high of 7.9% in June. We’ve seen a modest confidence updraft since mid-year on net, though all of the measures have deteriorated sharply from mid-2021 peaks. Net gains since Q2 likely reflect the summer pullback in gasoline prices before a partial reversal of this relief into Q4. The surveys face headwinds from the mortgage rate surge and mounting recession fears.

Wednesday – 30 November 2022

---

• Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The November NBS Manufacturing PMI in China is expected at 50.0 from 49.2.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to grow by just 101k (a nearly 138k decline from last month’s reading).
• Revised Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30)– The revised Q3 GDP for the US is forecasted to boost to 3.2% from 2.6%, with hikes of $16 bln for consumption, $11 bln for exports, $4 bln for imports, $14 bln for nonresidential construction and $5 bln for public construction, but downward bumps of -$10 bln for inventories and -$1 bln for residential construction. The Q3 data will still depict a quarter with solid final sales growth, which we now estimate at 4.2% (was 3.3%), thanks to an upwardly-revised 1.9% (was 1.4%) consumption gain, and a huge $163.6 (was $156.6) net export contribution as exports surge and imports fall. The reduced import hit was partly offset by an estimated -$58.2 (was -$48.2) bln inventory subtraction, as demand to replenish inventories with imported goods dissipates.
• Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD, GMT 18:30)

Thursday – 01 December 2022

---

• OPEC Meeting (All Day)
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (USD, GMT 13:30) – Personal income should post a 0.4% gain in October, after a 0.4% September gain. We expect a 0.5% rise in compensation after a 0.3% gain, given a 0.2% October increase for hours-worked and a 0.4% rise for hourly earnings. We also expect a 0.8% rise for consumption after a 0.7% August increase.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI  (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to a 2-year low of 50.0 from a prior low of 50.2 in October, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March 2021, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Friday – 02 December 2022

---

• RBA Governor Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 02:00)
• Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 200k November nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 261k in October, 315k in September, and 292k in August. Payroll growth should slow into the winter as mortgage rates rise and recession fears mount. A climb in initial and continuing claims since September implies some downside payroll risk. The jobless rate is seen to tick up to 3.8% from 3.7% in October and a 3.5% cycle-low in September. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.1% after a 0.2% October rise, while the workweek holds at 34.5 for a sixth month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after a 0.4% gain in October, while the y/y wage gain should be steady at 4.7%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases in 2022, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
• Employment data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rose by only 6K in November following the 108.3K rise in October. The unemployment rate should be unchanged at 5.2% m/m.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Cocoa Futures ( CCK2022 ), H4 Potential for Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:2454Pivot:2597Support:2355Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to head towards the support at 2355, where the previous swing low is located.Alternative Scenario:Price may go back up and retest the resistance at 2454 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cocoa-futures-cck2022-h4-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis November 25, 2022

Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis November 25, 2022Watch yesterday's live market and trade analysis session here! Markets are approaching some pivotal levels, in equity indices and FX, in yesterday's session we identified some key correlations that make mark a near term shift in risk sentiment in the coming week.Markets are moving, join me every Thursday for 'Real Time Actionable Analysis' on over 20 charts, where I review current positions & some high probability setups, join me in real-time at - @ 1pm GMT next Thursday - register here for the session here>>> https://rb.gy/mmo73x #PlantheTradeTradethePlan #ManageYourRISK #ProcessOverOutcome #PlayingtheProbabilities #forex #futurestrading #StockTrading #tickmill_official #PalmTreeTrader

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/weekly-live-market-and-trade-analysis-november-25-2022"
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Laid-back luxury in Portugal

Take the hassle out of holidays with The Luxury Travel Book

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Market Spotlight: Copper Falls Back on Fresh China Lockdown News

Copper False Break After breaking out above the 3.7300 level for the first time since June earlier this month, Copper prices have since reversed back below the level and are now sitting back within the 3.4445 – 3.7300 range which has framed price action over much of the last six months. The big driver behind the reversal lower has been the shift in optimism around China reopening story.Shifting China ViewCopper futures were seen rallying in response to growing speculation that China was on the path to abandoning its zero covid policy and reopening the economy. However, over the last week this story has totally changed with news of fresh lockdowns announced in China amidst record covid cases and fresh covid deaths. With traders now fearful of further such lockdowns over the coming months, the demand outlook for copper has been materially impacted.Lockdowns Key For CopperLooking ahead, copper traders will be keeping a close eye on covid headlines coming out of China. If the initial 5-day lockdown announced in Zhengzhou province ends as signalled, copper prices should bounce back. However, if the lockdown is extended, this will be heavily bearish for price near-term.Technical ViewsCopperThe reversal back under the 3.7300 level has stalled for now with price attempting to push back above the level. Momentum studies remain mixed here, signalling plenty of two way risk. If bulls can get back above the 3.7300 the focus will then turn back to the next upside objective at 4.1185. While below 3.7300, however, the 3.3445 level is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-copper-falls-back-on-fresh-china-lockdown-news"
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Daily Market Outlook, November 25, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 25, 2022 ‘Sterling Soars To A Three-Month High ’With US markets closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holidays, Asian markets were somewhat lacklustre overnight, lacking a lead from Wall Street. China's covid concerns continue to cause alarm, however, it seems markets are choosing to focus on the potential for further monetary policy support as a positive. The Bank of Japan expressed little concern at the hotter-than-expected inflation print overnight, as they believe the current inflationary impulse is transitory, driven by energy prices and Yen weakness. Sterling posted a three-month high against the greenback as Bank of England officials continue to beat the hawkish drum as they remain focused on fighting inflationary pressures with a robust rates policy. Inflationary pressures and a lack of meaningful government response to public sector wages will see Nurse’s strike next week for the first time in history, as the government refuses to enter pay negotiations, pitiful given their plight during the pandemic.For the day ahead: US markets will close early today, Black Friday marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season stateside. The data slate is pretty scent today, in the UK the Bank of England will release data on consumer credit, secured lending and mortgage approvals, all of which are expected to show a further deterioration in sentiment, as the appetite for borrowing remains diminished given the cost-of-living crisis and the rates environment.  Markets focus is likely to shift towards next week with the benchmark Non-Farm Payrolls report due, in the Eurozone flash CPI inflation data and in China official, PMIs will also be out. Markets will also hear from central bank heads Fed Chair Powell and ECB head Lagarde who is set to appear before the European Parliament.Overnight HeadlinesTokyo November Core CPI Rises At Fastest Annual Pace Since April 1982Asia-Pacific Stocks Mostly Lower, U.S. Markets Closes Early FridayChina’s RRR Rate Cut At All Banks Is Likely - Securities JournalBoK May Go Up to 3.5% as Terminal Rate, Governor Rhee SaysDollar Headed For Weekly Loss As Investors Brace For Slower Fed HikesHedge Fund Rokos Warns That Sterling Is ‘Vulnerable’ To Further FallsJapan’s 10-Year Yield Rises To Upper End Of BoJ’s Policy BandOil Set For Third Weekly Loss On Price-Cap Impasse, Demand FearsSaudi, Iraqi Energy Ministers Meet Thursday, Review Oil MarketsGlobal Oil Market Flashes Warning Signs On Rising Demand AngstU.S. Poised To Grant Chevron License To Pump Oil In VenezuelaCrypto Firm Binance To Commit $1 Bln For Crypto Recovery InitiativeFoxconn's Zhengzhou Plant Unlikely To Resume Full Prod By End-NovTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3990TechnicalsPrimary support is 3990Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3950 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0340TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0340Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0485Failure below 1.03 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0250 (766M), 1.0280-85 (314M), 1.0380 (261M), 1.0300 (296M), 1.0380-90 (581M), 1.0400-10 (443M),  1.0450-60 (334M), 1.0500 (324M), 1.0550 (211M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1950TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1950Primary upside objective 1.22Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.21Failure below 1.19 opens a test of 1.177020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1860 (699M)EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (270M), 0.8650-60 (1.03BN), 0.8775 (229M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 142.20TechnicalsPrimary resistance is 142.20Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 142.20 opens a test of 14320 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 138.15 (300M), 138.50-60 (980M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6680TechnicalsPrimary support is .6680Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6660 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6700 (655M), 0.6850 (358M)NZD/USD: 0.6170 (227M)USD/CAD: 1.3300 (221M), 1.3390 (358M), 1.3500 (400M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16100TechnicalsIntraday 16100 is primary resistancePrimary upside objective is 17000Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 16750Failure 16000 opens a test of 1550020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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2 investment trusts with growing dividends: which one should you invest in?

They might not have spectacular yields but these two trusts have increased their dividend every year for 55 years.

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EURUSD – Takes Advantage of the FED Minutes and Data

EURUSD, Daily

A majority of Fed members favoured slowing the pace of interest rate increases “soon” in order to assess the lagged impact of monetary policy on the economy and inflation. The Fed minutes state that “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slower pace of rate increases would likely be appropriate soon”; continuing “that the uncertain lags and amplitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited for the importance of such an assessment”.

EURUSD is up for the third consecutive day so far, and is currently at the 1.0404 level. This is after it peaked at 1.0447, as last night’s Fed minutes release benefited the Euro against the Dollar, with the USDIndex losing its safe-haven status (see below).

 

Recent data confirmed that inflation was slowing, but that it was still well above the 2% target, and several members persisted in propagating the idea of less hawkish rate hikes, a possibility that market participants had anticipated. However, some members of the US central bank preferred to wait until “the policy stance is more clearly in restrictive territory and there are more concrete signs of a significant reduction in inflationary pressures”.

 

According to CMEGROUP, 75.8% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes to 0.5% in December. With this slowdown in the pace of rate hikes largely priced in by market participants, attention is turning to the final Fed Funds rate, i.e. the maximum level. This factor was widely scrutinised by Fed members, although they acknowledged that there is still uncertainty as to whether they will reach a higher figure in order to meet the initial target. “Participants commented that there was significant uncertainty about the final level of the federal funds rate needed to meet the Committee’s objectives,” the minutes note.

It is important to remember that the EURUSD pair had benefited yesterday morning from a series of mostly better than expected European PMIs.

Technical Analysis 

EURUSD is currently above its cloud, its Kijun (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj) at the level of 1.0433; the Lagging Span (Lb) is above the cloud and clearly signifies a bullish moment. The price could reach 1.0485 then 1.0571; on the other hand, if the price starts to fall again, it could reach 1.0162 and then head towards parity (1.0000).

Kader Djellouli

 

 

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Have you been scammed? UK police to send out 70,000 text messages to scam victims

70,000 scam victims will get a text from police as part of anti-fraud operation today and tomorrow - if you get one, take action

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Solar panels vs heat pumps

If you’re looking to decarbonise your home and save money on your energy bills, you may want to consider investing in solar panels or a heat pump – or both.

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Market Spotlight: What Is Driving GBPUSD Rally?

GBP Rally ContinuesThe British Pound has been on a hot streak recently with GBP enjoying a strong rally against USD over the month so far. GBPUSD is now up almost 9% off the initial November lows and almost 17% off the all-time lows seen in September on the back of the former UK PM’s disastrous mini-budget. The rebound in GBP has largely been driven by the restoration of confidence on the back of Rishi Sunak taking over as PM and Jeremy Hunt delivering a much more balanced and credible budget this month.Better UK DataGBP received an additional boost this week from the latest set of UK PMI readings. Both services and manufacturing readings had been expected to fall further from the prior month’s numbers but both came in above expectations. At the same time, US PMIs were seen undershooting forecasts, raising recessionary fears and reinforcing the view that the Fed is likely to opt for a smaller hike next month.Fed in FocusThe sell off in USD has played a large part in the reversal of fortunes for GBPUSD, reflecting the extent to which USD long positions has built up. With some high-level names having bought GBP at the lows in September, more cautious players are likely joining the move as price heads higher now which should keep the pair supported near term. The big key here will be the next US inflation reading which comes ahead of the December FOMC meeting. If further CPI cooling is seen, a smaller hike in December looks to be far more likely, allowing GBPUSD further room to recover. However, should we see inflation jump back up, this will no doubt keep a larger hike on the table, sending GBPUSD lower near-term.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe rally in GBPUSD off the all-time lows has seen price underpinned by a steep rising trend line. Price has recently broken above the 1.1474 level and is now fast approaching a test of the 1.2195 level. With momentum studies supporting, the focus is on a continuation higher with 1.2650 the next big objective for bulls.

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Market Spotlight: USD Falls on Dovish Fed Minutes

USD Under PressureThe US Dollar has come under fresh selling pressure this week on the back of the November FOMC minutes released last night. The minutes revealed that Fed policymakers agreed that smaller rate hikes would be appropriate soon. While there was no focus on a particular meeting, the minute shave been interpreted as increasing the chances of a smaller hike from the Fed next month.Economic Impact of TighteningThe minutes noted that: “A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate”. The minutes continued, saying: “The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited regarding why such an assessment was important.”The minutes come on the back of a slew of recent Fed commentary which has been fairly evenly split. Some members have bene pushing for smaller hikes, voicing concerns over the economic impact of tightening. However, others have called for further tightening and even for the Fed to hike rates above the current peak projection.Market Expectations for December FedDespite the USD downturn, market pricing for a larger-than-.5% hike has actually increased recently, moving up to around 40% from around 20% a fortnight ago. With this in mind, risks are fairly well balanced for now with traders awaiting the next data/commentary to help them gauge the likely outcome of the December 14th meeting.Technical ViewsDXYThe sell off from YTD highs has seen price breaking below the corrective bear channel which had been framing the reversal lower. Price has subsequently retested the underside of the broken channel which is now holding as resistance and is currently sitting on support at the 104.95 level. This is a key level and a break here will be firmly bearish, putting focus on 101.27 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-usd-falls-on-dovish-fed-minutes"
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Bitcoin Might Temporarily Head North

Bitcoin did not hit the supporting level of 13000+ just yet. The asset has repeatedly approached the level of 15625 and reversed back up. The key market players could be buying large amounts of Bitcoin now. Currently, Bitcoin is undergoing a correction, which might last until the asset will face resistance at the level of 18500. Bitcoin is likely to pull from this level and drop. Time will tell what is going to happen next.Gold got back to the broken level of 1735.00, tested it, and formed the combination of a hammer and bullish engulfing at the end of the trading day. Gold is likely to jump and hit the level of 1820.00 next. Although the broken range is large enough and the price of gold might also hit the level of 1880.00 and face resistance.The currency pair EUR/USD has pulled from the upper boundary of the local uptrend. So, this asset is on the rise for now. First, the currency pair might approach the resistance level of 1.0600 and the downtrend from the weekly timeframe drawn between the maximums from June 1, 2021, and February 10, 2022.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-might-temporarily-head-north"
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Live Market Analysis Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The Dollar Index has been fluctuating around the 107 mark today, gaining against the retreating Yen, but losing out against EUR and GBP. Stronger than expected PMI reports for the Eurozone and the UK have left markets pushing up near term rate expectations, which has benefited both the Pound and the Euro. Markets are waiting for the minutes to the last FOMC meeting ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday.

 

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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from HF Analysis /635247/
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