Daily Market Outlook, November 30, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 30, 2022 ‘Markets Await Fed Chair Powell’s Speech This Evening...’Wall Street witnessed another intraday sell-off on the back of adverse OPEC headlines that suggested the cartel will leave output unchanged, while markets were anticipating a potential cut in production at their upcoming meeting given the global growth impact of China's ongoing Covid crisis. Asian equity markets and US futures staged another rebound overnight as investors continue to bet on an eventual China reopening and anticipated supportive policy measures, however, data overnight suggested that the Chinese economy continues to be impacted by Covid with factory and services data weakening further into contractionary territory. In the UK data released this morning showed a further economic decline with the Lloyds Business Barometer falling again in November and the British Retail Consortium showing a further increase in shop price inflation, with a notable surge in food price inflation to an eye-watering 12.4% year over year.For the day ahead, in the Eurozone investors will be focused on CPI, with markets braced for a continuation of double-digit levels of inflation, although, a softening from the 10.6% print in October to 10.4% for November is expected, the first decline in 17 months as a result of the ECB's record rate increases in recent months. In the US markets will eye GDP data which is expected to print a positive 2.7% for Q3, while ADP employment data is expected to confirm further tightness in the labour market ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, however, these releases will play second fiddle today to FOMC Chair Powell, who is due to give remarks this evening on the economic outlook and the US employment situation. His comment will be parsed by investors for clues as to the rate path trajectory and hints as to the terminal level for interest rates in the US, given the recent hawkishness and suggestions by Fed officials of a 5-7% target zone, further confirmation of this hawkish view will likely weigh on risk sentiment.Overnight HeadlinesChina Economic Activity Falls As Covid Cases Surge To RecordIMF Chief Flags Possible Downgrade In China's GDP ForecastJapan Factory Output Falls Again On Global Slowdown, Weak Chip DemandAustralia Monthly Inflation Slows In October, Hints At Possible PeakUS House Plans To Move Fast To Avert Rail Strike Despite ObjectionsInflation In UK Shops Rises To Highest Level On RecordDollar Near One-Week High As Traders Prepare For Powell, Payrolls TestsOil Rises A Third Day On OPEC+ Cut Chatter, Falling StockpilesOPEC+ Leans Toward Maintaining Flat Production, Delegates SayChevron To Send First Venezuelan Crude Shipment To US By Late DecemberAsia Stocks Choppy As Investors Cautious After Disappointing China DataChinese City Hosting Key iPhone Plant Lifts Covid LockdownHPE Projects Sales That Top Estimates On Office UpgradesCyber Monday Sets Sales Record As Shoppers Splurge On Toys, ElectronicsTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3930/40TechnicalsPrimary support is 3930/40Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3930 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0340TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0340Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0485Failure below 1.03 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0250 (493M), 1.0290-00 (1.32BLN), 1.0330 (367M) 1.0340-50 (705M), 1.0370-80 (1.11BLN), 1.0405-15 (800M) 1.0420-25 (619M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1950TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1950Primary upside objective 1.22Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.21Failure below 1.19 opens a test of 1.177020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.2050 (941M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 140TechnicalsPrimary resistance is 140Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 142.20 opens a test of 14320 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 138.50 (457M), 139.00 (295M), 140.00 (270M), 140.25 (810M)EUR/JPY: 140.00 (470M), 144.00 (290M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650TechnicalsPrimary support is .6650Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6660 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6600 (577M), 0.6645 (217M), 0.6700 (254M), 0.6735 (708M) 0.6775 (331M)NZD/USD: 0.6300 (270M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16100TechnicalsIntraday 16100 is primary resistancePrimary upside objective is 17100Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 16750Failure 16000 opens a test of 1550020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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