Daily Market Outlook, December 2, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 2, 2022 ‘Markets Marking Time Ahead Of Non-Farm Payrolls ReleaseWall Street took a breather following the post-Powell-inspired rally, consolidating above the 4000 level, some softer manufacturing data was digested along with several Fed members who reiterated the call for a focus on fighting inflation with restrictive monetary policy. Asian markets have been somewhat subdued overnight, with the Nikkei the standout underperformer following comments from the Bank of Japan’s Tamura, who suggested it was time for a review of the bank's ultra-easy monetary policy. Reports from China continue to point towards a curbing of restrictive Covid policies, the upcoming CPC politburo meeting is poised to confirm a more reasonable approach to Covid controls. On the data front for the day ahead, the focus is firmly on the US Non-Farm Payrolls release, markets expect circa 200k jobs to have been added this month, anything above this level may be a catalyst for a further pullback in the equity rally which in turn could add some support to the greenback on the back end of its worst monthly performance since 2010. Whispers are for a softer print after this week’s ADP miss, a rise in weekly continuing claims, a spike in challenger job cuts, and a drop in ISM’s employment sub-index. Specifically, the jobs data markets are still primarily in a “bad news is good news” and vice versa setup (but we may be approaching the end of the line in regard to this type of thinking). Noteworthy, when Wall Street sold off yesterday after the ISM miss, 49 vs 49.7 expected and now in contractionary territory, growth and recession concerns were highlighted more than how much higher rates can go after Powell’s speech, most investors finally accepted a 5% ballpark for the terminal rate into 2023Overnight HeadlinesChina Leaders May Signal Policy Shift To Economy From Covid ZeroPBoC Governor: To Support Growth, Sees Moderate Inflation In 2023BoJ's Kuroda: Japan's Inflation Is Expected To Decelerate From 2023BoJ Board Member Calls For Policy Review At The Right TimeAustralian Central Bank Has Traders Primed For New Rate SurpriseUS Jobs Growth Expected To Have Slowed Again In NovemberBarr Says Fed Could Slow Hike Pace As Soon As December MeetingFed's Williams: Too High Inflation Calls For More Fed Rate HikesBiden Says Can 'Tweak' Inflation Act To Include European CountriesSenate Votes 80-15 To Pass Bill Blocking Nationwide Railroad StrikeECB’s Lagarde Sees Need To Ensure Inflation Returns To GoalOil Prices Edge Higher On Easing Covid Curbs In China, Firm Dollar Limits GainsG7 Coalition: 'Very, Very Close' To Deal On Russian Oil Price CapStocks Decline In Asia As US Jobs Report Takes Main FocusTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 4050TechnicalsPrimary support is 4050Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3930 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.04TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.04Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05Failure below 1.0350 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0350 (1.18BLN), 1.0360-65 (1.08BLN)1.0375-80 (334M), 1.0390-00 (1.08BLN), 1.0420 (923M)1.0435 (509M), 1.0450 (339M), 1.0475 (709M)1.0500 (306M), 1.0525 (302M), 1.0600 (579M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.21Primary upside objective 1.24Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.2250Failure below 1.20 opens a test of 1.193020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/AUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 137.601.36 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary resistance is 137.60Primary downside objective is 134Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 135Acceptance above 140 opens a test of 14220 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 135.00 (478M). EUR/JPY: 140.00 (510M) 141.00 (320M), 142.50-60 (706M), 142.95-00 (818M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6700TechnicalsPrimary support is .6700Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6700 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6675 (463M), 0.6825-35 (619M)USD/CAD: 1.3400 (493M), 1.3415 (380M), 1.3500 (538M) 1.3520-25 (632M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1650017100 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsIntraday 16500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18000Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 17200Failure 16400 opens a test of 1600020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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