Make the most of tax-free saving with a Flexible ISA

Flexible ISAs allow you to take more control over your savings and investments and cover any unforeseen expenses in life

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High earners fail to claim £1.3 billion in pension tax relief

Millions of pounds of pension tax relief are left unclaimed by higher-rate and additional-rate taxpayers every year. We explain how to make sure you claim all the tax relief you’re entitled to.

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UK home sellers cut £14,000 off their asking prices as the buyers’ market returns

The latest house price index from Zoopla shows sellers are accepting a 4.5% discount on asking prices to secure a sale as the property market cools down.

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Total value of homes across the UK hits record highs

House prices may be showing signs of falling, but yet the total value of homes across the UK hit a fresh record by the end of 2022

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3 stocks to buy in a high interest rate environment

We take a look at three stocks to buy in a high interest rate environment that should be able to navigate economic uncertainty.

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Are housebuilder stocks looking cheap for dividend yields?

Housebuilders look like cheap dividend stocks, but can investors trust them to deliver? We look at Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Barratt Developments.

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The 10 cheapest countries to travel to

Looking to get away but want to keep costs low? Check out these 10 holiday destinations which remain cheap despite rising inflation.

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Ofgem announces new price cap - what does it mean for you?

Ofegm has lowered its energy price cap by around £1,000 for April - will this mean lower energy bills are coming?

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GBPJPY Potential for bullish rise to previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleGBPJPY Potential for bullish rise to previous swing highTypeBullish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPJPY is bullish with the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud. To add confluence to this bias, price is along an ascending trendline.Looking for price to rise from the pivot to ride the bullish momentum towards the resistance where the overlap resistance is.It’s also worth noting that there is an intermediate resistance here, where price might struggle to break though.

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Now is the time to visit Nicaragua

The Central American country has much to tempt tourists

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FOMO Friday: Copper Falls 5%

Copper Comes A CropperAs the last full trading week of February comes to a close, we’ve seen several key developments with the January FOMC minutes, the first comments from incoming BOJ head Ueda and the G20 summit getting underway. Looking across markets, we haven’t been treated to as many big moves as we’ve seen in prior weeks. However, there has still been some noteworthy action and chatting with traders ahead of the weekend it seems the big move capturing most attention is the almost 5% reversal lower in Copper from the week’s highs. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If not? There’s always next week!What Caused the Move?Hawkish Fed ExpectationsThe main driver behind the decline in copper from the initial highs of the week has been the uptick in hawkish Fed expectations. On the back of the recent run of hot US data we’ve seen, the market has become increasingly wary of the Fed adopting a more hawkish stance. Having pivoted away from larger hikes twice now, the recent increase in January inflation has spooked markets a little, raising the risks of the Fed stepping back up the pace of its tightening campaign.FOMC MinutesThis week, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday were seen bolstering this hawkish narrative. The minutes showed that several members were in support of a larger hike in January, ahead of getting the news that inflation had spiked again. These details in line with the jump in CPI have seen market pricing for a larger .5% hike in March rising from less than 10% to around 25%.Downside Risks for CopperAs a result of the resultant strength in USD and US yields, commodities prices have been hit sharply with copper in particular suffering. Today the market will receive a further piece of US data with the latest core PCE reading due. Should we see strength in this reading, copper prices are likely to fall further near-term with sharpened focus on the chances of a larger hike in March or a more hawkish outlook from the Fed.Technical ViewsCopperThe second attempt at breaking above the 4.1185 has seen the market failing and falling back below the level. With momentum studies turned bearish here, the focus is on a further push lower while under the level with 3.9410 the next support to watch. A break of this level will open the way for a deeper move towards 3.6745.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-copper-falls-5
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High energy prices are here to stay

The rising cost of producing energy means high oil and gas prices are here to stay argues Max King

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Market Spotlight: USDCAD Breaking Out Ahead of Core PCE

Yellen Says US Can Avoid Hard LandingUS stocks were seen climbing off the lows yesterday as comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen helped boost sentiment. The former Fed chair was speaking on the side-lines of the G20 summit and told reporters that she believes the US has the potential to avoid a hard landing. Citing the strength of the US labour market and a stronger balance sheet than pre-GFC, Yellen said that the economy is in good shape and noted the declines in inflation as a further encouraging sign.Core PCE Up NextYellen’s comments come just ahead of today’s US core PCE data. The market will be closely watching the release, given that it Is used by the Fed as a primary gauge of inflation, more so than CPI. On the back of the uptick in January inflation, expectations are for a similar lift with analysts projecting a 0.4% from 0.3% monthly increase. Any result at this level or above should keep the current narrative of hawkish Fed expectations intact, driving USD higher.Where To Trade?With Canadian CPI seen undershooting forecasts last month, in stark contrast to the US, the BOC’s current “on hold” guidance looks solid. With divergence opening up once again between the Fed and the BOC, USDCAD looks vulnerable to further upside if today’s data comes in hot.Technical ViewsUSDCADThe rally in USDCAD off the recent lows has seen price breaking out above the bear trend line from last year’s highs and above the 1.3501 level. While above here the focus is on a further push higher towards the 1.3683 level, in line with bullish momentum studies readings. Above 13683, 1.3839 is the bigger target to play for.

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Market Spotlight: JPY Falls As Ueda Says Rates to Stay Low

Rates to Stay LowThe Japanese Yen has come under pressure across the European open on Friday following seemingly dovish comments from incoming BOJ governor Ueda. Speaking at the Japanese Diet, Ueda told members of parliament that he felt the BOJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy is still appropriate for now and signalled that he is in no rush to raise rates. There has been a great deal of speculation regarding Ueda’s views on monetary policy and with these comments marking his first formal remarks, traders have gained some important clarity. The initial market reaction has seen the Nikkei rallying while JPY comes off.Uncertainty Ahead for JapanWhile Ueda suggested there was room for adjusting the bank’s yield curve control target, urging the BOJ to be creative with monetary policy, timing was still the key issue to be resolved, according to Ueda. In terms of the broader outlook for the economy, Ueda cited his view that the surge in inflation was a function of elevated import costs, not heightened demand, and warned that there is a great deal of uncertainty in the Japanese economic outlook.Continuity For NowFurther out, Ueda said that while it will likely take some time before trend inflation is sustainably at or above 2%, once there the BOJ consider normalising monetary policy. Notably, Ueda said that this would be achieved through hiking rates on deposits held at the bank by financial institutions rather than selling bonds. The key message for now is one of continuity with Ueda clearly not looking to rock the boat. With this in mind, JPY is likely to remain pressured while Japanese asset prices should remain supported.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe rally off the lows in USDJPY has seen the market breaking out above the bear channel from last year’s highs and above the 132.91 level. While above here, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 139.33 level, in line with bullish momentum studies readings. Retail market remains heavily short, encouraging a further push higher.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-jpy-falls-as-ueda-says-rates-to-stay-low
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USDCAD Potential Rise to Previous overlap resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential rise to a key overlap resistanceTypeBullish rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 1.35156 where the overlap support is. we are looking to take profit at 1.37020 where the overlap resistance is.

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The best cash Isas – February 2023

Cash Isa rates have risen over the last 12 months. Here are the best cash Isas on the market today.

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The cost of care: how to pay for long term care?

The high cost of long-term care ranks is among the top five reasons why those over 55 will choose to continue working after retirement age. Whether you’re planning ahead for yourself or thinking about care for an elderly relative we look at ways you can pay it

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Law Debenture Investment Trust offers something for all investors

The Law Debenture Investment Trust has some key qualities that have helped it vastly outperform the market over the past decade

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Market Spotlight: S&P Testing Channel Lows Ahead of US GDP

US Adv GDP Up NextOn the back of last night’s FOMC minutes, focus today switches US advanced GDP for Q1. On the back of the prior quarter’s 2.9% reading, the market is looking for an unchanged result today. Clearly, with the recent narrative of surprising resilience in the US economy creating room for the Fed to push ahead with tightening, today’s data will be of high importance.Bullish USD/ Bearish Equities ScenarioIf market forecasts are surpassed, this will further bolster the view that the Fed might lean towards a higher rate increase in March, or a more hawkish outlook. With last nights minutes showing that some Fed members backed a larger hike in January, there is a very real risk of such a move given the recent run of US data we’ve seen. In this scenario, USD is likely to be firmly bid while risk assets should recoil near-term.Bearish USD/ Bullish Equities ScenarioOn the other hand, if today’s data undershoots forecasts, this might suggest that the market has become a little carried away recently with the hawkish Fed perspective. In this scenario, USD is likely to weaken and stocks should see better gains as market pricing leans back towards a smaller .25% hike in March.Technical ViewsS&PThe market is at in interesting point here as we test the bull channel lows. A fresh move higher in USD today should see a downside break of the channel where the big focus will then be a test of the 3910 support. This is a key pivot for the index and a break below here will be firmly bearish. However, if this area holds, or we move higher from current levels, focus will be on the 4153.50 level, a break of which will open the way for a move back up towards 4305 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-s-and-p-testing-ch
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Market Spotlight: Nvidia Beats Forecasts & Signals Growth Ahead

Nvidia Bounces BackThe big story from US earnings yesterday was the better than forecast results from tech group Nvidia. Rebounding from the prior quarter’s losses, the group posted Q4 EPS of $0.88 vs $0.81 expected on revenues of $6.051 billion vs $6.015 billion expected. Worth noting that year-on-year both EPS and revenues were lower. However, along with quarter-on-quarter uptick, investors appeared buoyed by the group’s more optimistic 2023 outlook when compared with some of the gloomier forecasts we’ve heard across this earnings season.AI Demand GrowthThe big driver behind Nvidia’s quarterly growth was the success in it’s data centre business, fuelled by a rise in chip sales for AI. Nvidia’s position as a leading producer of graphics cards has helped it capitalise on this new growth area.  Looking ahead, the group was optimistic about its chances of continued growth linked to surging demand from AI interest. With businesses of all sizes reportedly feeling an urgency to invest in AI capabilities, Nvidia is well positioned to ride the wave via its chip sales and cloud businesses. For Q1, the company forecast revenues of $6.5 billion, topping Wall Street’s own $6.35 billion forecasts.Technical ViewsNvidiaThe rally off last year’s lows has seen the stock breaking out above the bear trend line from 2022 highs and more recently, above the 193.10 level resistance. This is a key pivot for the stock and while above here the focus is on a further move higher towards the 285.60. Should price slip back below the level, the next support will be the rising trend line off Q3 2022 lows.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-nvidia-beats-forecasts-and-signals-growth-ahead
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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to Previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise to Previous swing high TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1.35142 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is, and take profit at 1.37038 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci Line are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-previous-swing-high
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Market Spotlight: AUDNZD Plunges on RBNZ Hike - FOMC Minutes Next

RBNZ Hikes Again – More to Come, But Slower PaceThe RBNZ hiked rates once again overnight at its February MPR meeting. Despite signals in November of a further .75% hike to come, the bank ultimately opted for a smaller hike in the face of the recent weather disasters in New Zealand which have ravaged parts of the country and are expected to exacerbate the economic issues facing the country. Along with the smaller hike, the RBNZ also forecast a further pivot in April with a projected .25% hike. Finally, while the bank maintained its peak rate level, the RBNZ said it now expects to take longer to hit that rate with a slower pace of tightening now planned over 2023. However, the RBNZ was clear in reaffirming that it will continue with tightening this year in order to drive inflation down.AUD SuffersThe reaction in NZD was most pronounced against AUD with AUDZND plunging on the back of the meeting. AUD has been under pressure this week since the RBA meeting minutes despite the minutes revealing a more hawkish skew among members. Looking ahead, the pair looks vulnerable to further downside should today’s FOMC minutes provoke a fresh rally in USD, with AUD likely to bear the brunt of the move.Technical ViewsAUDNZDThe rally in AUDNZD off last year’s lows has been framed by a rising wedge pattern. With plenty of bearish divergence into recent highs, risks of a reversal lower are growing. Price is now testing below the structure and is currently probing support at 1.0954. If we break below here, there is open water down to 1.0750 next, in line with weakening momentum studies.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-audnzd-plunges-on-rbnz-hike-fomc-minutes-next
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Should you consolidate your small pensions pots?

The Department for Work and Pensions is consulting on helping workers who hold a number of small pension pots. But here's what you need to think about if you have several pension pots and are thinking about consolidating them.

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The Net Zero energy revolution is anything but green

Dominic Frisby explains why the world may struggle to hit its Net Zero energy goals as the environmental and monetary costs mount.

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Daily Market Outlook, February 22, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 22, 2023Stocks Suffer From PMI StrengthAsian Equities retreated overnight, following US markets lower. Growth and inflation expectations increased following a robust round of PMI data. PMI prints from western economies provided a more optimistic outlook for growth, however, the inflation read was more ambiguous with supply chain disruptions easing but service sector inflation remaining elevated. The data docket in the European session is scant today, investors will eye German IFO business survey which markets expect to deliver further signs of improving conditions. Yesterday’s Eurozone flash PMI rose to a nine-month high led by service sector activity, impressively the manufacturing read also signalled a return to growth, aided by indications of further reductions in supply chain constraints. Expect today’s headline IFO index to rise to 91.5 from 90.2, supported by incremental improvements in current conditions and expectations, this  would be a fifth consecutive uptick to the best levels since midsummer of 2022The Federal Market Open Committee will release the minutes of its February policy meeting this evening, the minutes, however, may now be a little stale given subsequent robust US data releases and predominantly hawkish rhetoric from policymakers. Nevertheless, these recent data releases reinforce the hawkish mantra that is likely to come out of the minutes that a policy ‘pivot’ remains a stretch target, as markets have repriced, believing the Fed will raise rates by a further 75bp by the summer and investors have abandoned the notion of rate cuts later this year..FX Options Expiration New York CutN/AOvernight News of NoteStock Futures Inch Higher As Investors Brace For Fed MinutesFed Minutes To Show Support Level For Larger Hikes, Higher PeakBiden Fed Vice Chair Search Set To Focus On Ex-Treasury OfficialsUS Plan To Impose New Sanctions On Russian Individuals, EntitiesUS House Panel Expected To Hold Hearing On Policy About ChinaChina Call Russia Ties ‘Solid As A Rock’ Amid Ukraine Peace PushBoJ Member Tamura Calls For Keeping Ultra-Easy Policy For NowJapan Benchmark Yield Tops Above 0.5% BoJ Cap In Second DayAustralia Wage Growth Weaker Than Expected As Rate Bets PareRBNZ Hikes 50Bps And Flags More To Come As Inflation Too HighPM Sunak Secures Backing Of Key Brexiters For NI Protocol DealGerman Business Morale Set For Fifth Consecutive ImprovementCoinbase See Quarterly Loss, Crypto Winter Hits Trading Volume(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4030Primary support is 3970Primary objective is 4384Below 3960 opens 389020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0850Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.22Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6910Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23600Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-22-2023
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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to Previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise to Previous swing high TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1.35142 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is, and take profit at 1.37038 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci Line are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-previous-swing-high
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AUDUSD potential for bearish drop towards overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD potential for bearish drop towards overlap supportTypeBearish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for price to drop from the pivot towards the overlap support.

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What is a dividend yield?

Learn what a dividend yield is and what it can tell investors about a company's plans to return profits to its investors.

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Women to get one year’s supply of HRT for less than £20

A new scheme from the Department of Health and Social Care could reduce a woman’s HRT bill from over £200 to under £20 a year.

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Market Spotlight: Walmart Shareholders Hoping For More Earnings Growth

Walmart In Focus TodayThe big focus for US stock traders today will be the release of Walmart’s Q4 earnings, coming just before the US open. The company’s performance always attracts plenty of attention given its status as an indicator of overall US economic health due to its size. One of the key themes we’ve heard from CEO’s over this earnings season has been the uncertainty and downside risks within the economic outlook for the year ahead. With inflation still at elevated levels and US rates having risen sharply last year, many retailers particularly have highlighted uncertainty in their guidance which is likely to be the message offered from Walmart also.Market ForecastsOn the numbers front, the market is looking for EPS of $1.51 on revenues of $159.72 billion. Both numbers will mark an uptick on the prior quarter if confirmed, marking a third straight quarter of earnings growth. Importantly, those figures would also mark a solid increase from the same period a year earlier, which should help drive Walmart shares higher near-term provided the forward guidance isn’t too pessimistic.Technical ViewsWalmartThe rally in Walmart shares off the 138.19 lows has seen the stock breaking above the bear channel from December highs. Price is now testing 146.21 which is a key level for the market. A break higher here will open the way for a test of the December highs around 154.30. Should price slip back from here, the next support to note is 138.19

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-walmart-shareholders-hoping-for-more
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Market Spotlight: GBPJPY Breaking Out On UK Data Beat

Strong Services Sector Gains GBP has been on the rise today as traders digest the latest set of UK economic data. January PMIs saw the UK services sector bouncing back into growth territory last month with the index printing 53.3, up from the prior month’s 48.7 result and above the 49.1 the market was looking for. This marks the first time since July that the sector has been in growth territory after plunging over Q3 and Q4 2022. One particularly encouraging sign for the BOE was the PMI price index- used to determine expected future price inflation – was seen falling to its lowest level since April 2021.Manufacturing Rises Also Along with the increase in the services sector reading the manufacturing index also recorded an increase, jumping to 49.2 from 47 prior. While still in negative territory, the trajectory is encouraging and the reading was above the 47.5 the market was looking for.UK Econ Outlook ImprovingThe data reinforces the view that the UK economy is doing a little better than expected when measured against projections being made into the back end of last year. The BOE recently said that while it still expects a downturn this year, the dip will likely be milder than expected. Following the UK economy narrowly avoiding falling into recession in Q4, this initial January data is being taken as an encouraging sign that the worst of it is over and the economy is back on the up, helping lift GBP sentiment.Technical ViewsGBPJPYThe rally in GBPJPY off the Feb lows has seen the market breaking out above the 159.98 level and more recently the 162.08 level. The latest break marks a significant development and while above here the focus is on a further push higher and a test of next resistance at 164.56, with the bear channel highs around there also. Retail market heavily short and momentum studies bullish, supporting the move.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-gbpjpy-breaking-out-on-uk-data-beat
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The IndeX Files 21-02-2023

Equities Markets Weaker Ahead of FOMC Minutes TomorrowGlobal equities benchmarks have seen a timid start to the week with the four indices tracked here under pressure across early European trading on Tuesday. Yesterday saw quiet flows and limited action with US markets off line for President’s day and traders across the pond looking to tread carefully ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The US Dollar looks to be finding its feet again today after suffering a weaker start yesterday, which is also having a limiting effect on equities prices.The release of January PMI’s today in the Eurozone, US and UK will be the main focus for markets. Should US data surprise to the upside once again (strong recent trend of data beats), hawkish expectations are likely to build further ahead of the March FOMC, which will be bad news for equities near-term. In the UK and Eurozone, however, asset prices are likely to be a little more buoyant if today’s data confirms better business activity in January, diluting recession fears further.The main event for the week, however, will be tomorrow’s FOMC minutes for January. Given the recent strong of data beats and hawkish Fed commentary we’ve seen, the minutes might have lost a little relevance. However, USD bulls will be clinging onto any hawkish details they can find meaning that risks are skewed to the downside for equities prices this week with USD vulnerable to a fresh move higher.Technical ViewsDAXFor now, the DAX continues to hold within the top of the rising wedge formation, held up by support at the 15163.41 level and capped by resistance at 15642.76. With momentum studies having weakened recently, there are growing risks of a reversal lower with 14703.98 the next support to watch if current lows are broken.S&P 500The failure at the 4153.50 level has seen the market turning sharply lower, in line with falling momentum studies. Price is now fast approaching a test of the bull channel lows which, if broken, open the way for a test of 3910.00 next. Bulls will need to defend this level to prevent a fuller reversal lower.FTSEAfter breaking out to record highs last week, the FTSE is now softening a little from those highs. However, while within the bull channel and while 7904.7 holds as support, the outlook remains bullish. Should that level give, there is a bigger support level at 7678.8 which will be the key test of the market.NIKKEIThe market continues to stall around the 27422.9 level. Price has been caught up here over much of this year and, now just below the level, with momentum studies weakening the index looks vulnerable to a dip lower with 26407 the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-21-02-2023
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USDJPY Potential for Bullish Rise to 23.6% Fibonacci Line

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Rise TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish as the current price is crossing the Ichimoku Cloud. Looking for pullback buy entry at 131.622 where the overlap support is, and take profit is at 137.9 where the previous swing high is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-23-6-fibonacci-line
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Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2023Asian Markets Marking Time, Waiting Lead From Wall StreetAsian equities are trading with a muted tone overnight as they lacked a lead from Wall Street given the NYSE was closed for US Presidents Day celebrations. The Nikkei and Shanghai Comp are rotating around the flatline for the session, while the Hang Seng is the standout underperformer shedding over 1.5% driven by regional tech losses. The subdued risk sentiment in Asian trade was compounded by the recent minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which confirmed that discussion at the most recent meeting was around the scale of a hike 25 or 50bps, with a pause not even on the table for negotiation, as the minutes confirmed the board were committed to further rate increases in the coming months, once again dashing dovish investors desiresEuropean bourses are set to open with a softer tone this morning ahead of flash PMI prints for the Uk, Germany and the Eurozone. Stateside investor focus will be firmly on FOMC minutes released later today, markets are currently pricing a higher terminal rate circa 5.3% for July with a 2023 rate curve remaining above 5%, as investors abandon hopes of rate cuts this year. With the US inflation backdrop remaining stubbornly sticky, combined with the robustness of the employment landscape it is likely the Fed minutes will confirm that the Open Market committee are poised to keep the pedal to the metal on the higher for longer rates mantra, certainly the recent price action in the Dollar cements this view the DXY has recovered its losses for the year so far and looks poised to challenge the pivotal 105 handle, weighing on global risk sentiment, with MSCI Index the broadest Asian-Pacific gauge sitting towards six week lows after retreating 3% so far in February.FX Options Expiration New York CutUSDJPY 133.50(300m)AUDUSD .6410(747m), .6730(743m)Overnight News of NoteUS Futures Fall, Try To Rebound From Third Weekly DeclinePutin To Update Russia’s Elite On Ukraine In Major SpeechChina Says 'Deeply Worried' On Escalation Of Ukraine WarChina Launch Private Equity Pilot To Boost Property SectorChina Busy Roads Show Economic Recovery Gathers PaceBoJ's Kuroda: Wages Set To Accelerate On Tight Job MarketJapan’s Factory Activity Falls At Fastest Pace In Over 2 YearsAustralia Considered 25 Or 50Bps Rate Hike, Minutes RevealUK PM Sunak Lobbies Tory MPs To Back Looming Brexit DealNI Brexit Deal Could Trigger Resignations, UK PM Sunak ToldGermany’s ZEW Investor Confidence Set To Continue HigherHSBC Profits Rocket As Rising Interest Rates Boost RevenueBHP Cuts Record Dividend As China Slowdown Dents Profits(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0850Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23600Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-21-2023
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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to resistanceTypeBullish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to rise from the pivot to ride the bullish momentum towards the resistance level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-resistance
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Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500. Nasdaq & DAX

Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500. Nasdaq & DAXTo access today's actionable analysis click here!

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-technical-trade-set-ups-for-emini-sp500-nasdaq-and-dax
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Daily Market Outlook, February 20, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 20, 2023Asian Markets Recover After A Tepid Start To The Trading WeekAsian equities opened on the backfoot given a mixed handover from Wall Street as investors squared positions ahead of the Friday close and the US Presidents Day holiday today (with the NYSE closed today). Overnight geopolitical concerns were once again at the fore, with North Korea test firing an ICBM and multiple rocket launcher drills, this was coupled with lingering China-US tensions as China warned the US on escalating tensions regarding ‘ballon-gate’ the US countered with its own warnings regarding China providing pro Russian support in the Ukrainian war. The Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng were once again regional outperformers supported by continuing liquidity provisioning by the PB0C.Today’s data docket is very scant. Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to post its fourth monthly rise in a row, however, the increase is from record low levels. This is the first of several Eurozone surveys for February due this week all of which are expected to show that economic conditions in the region are showing nascent signs of improvement. UK January public finances data, due early Tuesday, will reveal self-assessment income tax returns for the year. Any indication from this that annual borrowing levels will come in below forecasts may lead to more calls for new policy measures in the March Budget. Down under in Australia the central bank will release minutes of its February policy meeting ealy Tuesday, after raising rates by 25bps at that meeting and pointed to the likelihood of further hikes, investors will parse the minutes for signs of further intentions to continue restrictive monetary policy in the first half of this year.Last week saw an extension of the rebound in market interest rate pricing in the US, this move commenced after the very robust employment report for January, when investors began to see markets actively reprice the terminal rate higher, with Fed officials rhetoric also confirming a sense that higher for longer remains the name of the game, last week's data pointed to a slower decline in inflation and better than expected manufacturing activity reinforced the belief of elevated rates persisting, this week the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core personal consumer expenditure deflator, will be released and may point to another rise of 0.4% month over month leaving the Fed adrift by 0.17% month over month from achieving levels that would return the US to it’s 2% inflation target.FX Options Expiration New York CutGBPUSD 1.1000(400m)Overnight News of NoteAsia Shares Hesitant Ahead Of Updates On Fed, BoJ PoliciesFed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Seen Running Hot This WeekUS Plans New Russia Export Controls, Key Industries SanctionsUS-China Meeting Only Worsens Tensions Over Balloon, RussiaWH To Hold Secret Talks With Taiwan Officials In WashingtonChinese Banks Hold Rates Steady, Analysts Bet Easing To ComeBoJ Viewers Flag Outside Risk Of March Surprise To Help UedaIran Nuclear Inspectors Find Uranium Enriched To 84% PurityNorth Korea Fires Barrage Of Ballistic Missiles As It Warns USECB’s Makhlouf Defends Runaway Economic Growth As ‘Real’UK PM Sunak Forced To ‘Pause’ Protocol Deal Amid BacklashMeta To Launch Subscription Service For Facebook, InstagramDeutsche Bank Criticised By Regulators Over Mis-Selling Probe(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0820 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23500Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-20-2023
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Bitcoin’s Future is Unclear, Silver is on the Rise

Bitcoin has tested a very important resistance at the level of 25000. Currently, it stays still. However, Bitcoin might eventually pull back from this level, undergo correction, and gain the required support at the level of 21500. Yet buyers may help the asset to pull through to break the resistance and hit the level of 30000. In this case, it is important to follow the price movements, that is, the candlestick formations next to important levels to figure out what might happen next.Silver formed a hammer at the end of last Friday and touched the supporting level of 21.30. This level is located next to the 50% price correction from the latest rise. Hence, silver is heading up. The asset is likely to hit the level of 25.American stock index S&P 500 keeps testing the broken downtrend. It has formed a pattern resembling a bull flag. The index is likely to jump on Monday. So, let’s see what will happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-s-future-is-unclear-silver-is-on-the-rise
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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to 61,8% Fibonacci line

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish as the current price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. Looking for a sell entry at 0.68609, and take profit at 0.65887 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-61-8-fibonacci-line
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USDJPY Potential for bullish continuation towards previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDJPY Potential for bullish continuation towards previous swing highTypeBullish BouncePreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to rise from this pivot which is the overlap support towards the resistance which is the previous swing high.It's worth noting that there is an intermediate resistance here where price might struggle to break through.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-bullish-continuation-towards-previous-swing-high
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NZDJPY Potential for bearish drop towards previous swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDJPY Potential for bearish drop towards previous swing lowTypeBearish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NZDJPY is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.If price breaks this support here, I expect price to possibly drop from the pivot towards the support which is the previous swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/titlenzdjpy-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-previous-swing-low
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Masseria Pistola: rustic charm in Puglia

The newly renovated farmhouse in southern Italy offers a stylish and tranquil stay

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/travel-and-holidays/605712/masseria-pistola-rustic-charm-in-puglia
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Is it time to give up on buy-to-let?

Buy-to-let investors are fleeing the market as higher mortgage costs eat into rental income.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/give-up-on-buy-to-let
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Daily Market Outlook, February 17, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 17, 2023Fed Hawks Weigh On Risk Appetite As Investor Risk Sentiment SoursAsian equities declined as US producer price inflation and hawkish Fed rhetoric weighed on investor appetite into the weekend. Treasury yields ascended with the 10yr yield approaching 4% as markets reprice US  rate expectations towards three further 25bps increases by the summer and for rates to remain higher for longer. Goldman Sachs has raised its US rate view, the firm now looks for three further 25bps hikes from the FOMC in March, May and June, lifting its view of the terminal rate to 5.25-5.50%; the firm raised its forecasts in light of stronger growth and firmer inflation metrics. In the Eurozone ECB’s Schnabel added to the hawkish tone from global central bankers as she deemed monetary policy transmission in Europe may require more aggressive ECB policy. The data docket for the European session is scant, Statetside the only print of note is import price inflation, investor attention will shift to Fed’s Barkin set to make remarks regarding the US labour market and Fed Governor Bowman is also scheduled to speak. FX Options Expiration New York CutEURUSD 1.08(455m)USDJPY 134.40(395m)GBPUSD 1.2415(403m)AUDUSD .6740(365m)Overnight News of NoteDollar Rises To 6-Week Peak As Strong US Retail Sales Bolster Higher-Rates ScenarioFed’s Mester Says She Saw ‘Compelling’ Case For Half-Point Rate HikeFed's Bullard Backs More Interest Rate IncreasesECB's Lane Says Tightening Effect Still In PipelineEU Commission Scratches Russia Nuclear Sanctions PlansUK PM Sunak Due In Northern Ireland As Protocol Deal ImminentDow Falls More Than 250 Points After Another Hot Inflation ReportGoldman Sachs Steps Back From Bidding For New Credit Card ProgramsBank Of America Plans Job Cuts In Its Investment BankTesla Recalls 362,758 Vehicles; Full Self-Driving Beta Software May Cause Crashes(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4177Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.0620Above 1.0820 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.20Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25000 - 25000 Target Hit, New Pattern Primary support 23500Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-17-2023
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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to intermediate support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop to intermediate support TypeBearish DropPreference:We are seeing the price is being above the Ichimoku cloud, Looking for a pullback sell entry at 0.6893 where the 50% Fibonacci line is, and take profit at 0.67395 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-intermediate-supportwas
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GBPUSD Potential to retest on the overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleGBPUSD, H4 | Potential retest on the overlap support TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPUSD is bullish. Looking for a buy entry at 1.19189 where the overlap support and 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 1.20752, where the recent swing high is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpusd-potential-to-retest-on-the-overlap-support
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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to 61.8% Fibonacci line

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential for Bullish Rise to 61.8% Fibonacci line TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish as the current price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, Looking or a pullback sell entry at 1.35066 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is, We are looking to take profit at 1.35327 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-61-8-fibonacci-line
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Where RIT Capital Partners went wrong

Weak returns and rising private-equity exposure mean the wide discount to NAV for RIT Capital Partners is justified.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605638/rit-capital-partners
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The MoneyWeek portfolio of investment trusts – December 2022 update

A decade ago we set up the MoneyWeek portfolio of investment trusts.. It proved a success, says Merryn Somerset Webb.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/investment-trust-model-portfolio
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Bitcoin is done Correcting: What’s Next?

Bitcoin has completed its correction at the broken level of 21500 and crossed the level of 22500. The asset is likely to face resistance at the level of 25000 soon. So, let’s observe what will happen.Oil is approaching the supporting level of 21.00, which also marks a 50% correction from the latest ascending move. It is noteworthy that oil might pull back from this level soon.The currency pair EUR/USD has pulled from the local broken level of 1.0770 and underwent correction. The asset’s price is likely to drop to the level of 1.0350, gain the required support, and jump again.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-done-correcting-what-s-next
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AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Rise to recent swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential reversal off a key overlap support TypeBullish ReversalPreference:We are seeing the price has tested and bounced back from the key support. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.68778 where below the 1st support level. We are looking for take profit at 0.70141.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-recent-swing-high
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NZDUSD Potential for bearish drop to previous swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD Potential for bearish drop to previous swing lowTypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NZDUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Expecting price to drop from the pivot which is the overlap resistance level towards the support which is the previous swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-previous-swing-low
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USDJPY Potential for bullish rise towards previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDJPY Potential for bullish rise towards previous swing highTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support, before heading towards the resistance which is the previous swing high.It's worthy to note that there is an intermediate resistance which is an overlap resistance level. Price might struggle to break through that area.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-previous-swing-high
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6 funds to buy with the gold price near an all-time high

The gold price in sterling is trading near an all-time high. Rupert Hargreaves looks at six ways to invest in the yellow metal ahead of further gains.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/gold-price-funds
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BOE in Focus As UK Inflation Falls Again

UK Inflation Falls AgainGood news today for UK consumers, and also the BOE, with the latest UK economic data reflecting a third consecutive monthly decline in consumer prices. Annualised inflation printed at 10.1% last month, down from the prior month’s 10.5% and now down a full 1% from the peak inflation reading of 11.1% seen in Q4 2022. Notably, the reading was also below market projections for a 10.3% reading.Data BreakdownLooking at the breakdown of the data, transport costs were the biggest driver of the decline at 3.1% from 6.5% prior while restaurants and hotels also marked a decline at 10.8% vs 11.3% prior. However, housing and utilities costs were seen creating upward pressure at 26.7% vs 26.6% prior as were health costs at 6.3% vs 5.1% prior. Alcohol and tobacco were also higher at 5.1% vs 3.7% prior.Core Inflation Falls AlsoA further encouraging sign was that core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, was also seen falling. Annualise core inflation printed 5.8%, down from 6.3% prior, and below the 6.2% the market was looking for. While clearly still well above the BOE’s 2% target, inflation is now moving in the right direction at least and the big question on traders’ lips is: what does this mean for the BOE?At its last meeting, along with hiking rates to their highest level in 14 years, the BOE signalled that inflation had likely peaked in the UK. The BOE has been a reluctant tightener of monetary policy throughout this cycle (often accused of being slow and lacklustre) and so today’s data will no doubt bolster the view that the bank is getting closer to pausing rate hikes.Downside Risks into March BOEAhead of the data, the latest Reuters poll showed that the majority of forecasters were looking for the BOE to pivot down to a smaller .25% hike in March. In light of this data, there are now downside risks that the BOE pauses altogether. At the very least, if the BOE does hike again, that will likely mark the start of the pause date – which is what the market will be focused on anyway. With this in mind, there are downside risks for GBP into the meeting.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe pair continues to hold within the triangle pattern which has framed the recent consolidation here.  With 1.2195 holding as resistance, the pair looks vulnerable to a drop lower, in line with weakening momentum studies. Should we see a break of the triangle lows, 1.1474 is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/boe-in-focus-as-uk-inflation-falls-again
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HM Land Registry: UK house prices fell in December

The latest house price index from the government shows house prices ticked lower in the final months of 2022.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605706/hm-land-registry-uk-house-prices-fell-in-december
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UK inflation slows again, but remains near a 40-year high

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed CPI fell to 10.1% in January as lower fuel prices started to filter through to consumers.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/605705/uk-inflation-slows-again-but-remains-near-a-40-year-high
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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias is bearish as there is a strong resistance level. Looking for a pullback entry at 0.70111, take profit at 0.68709.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-recent-swing-low15674645r
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GBPNZD Potential for bullish rise towards previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleGBPNZD Potential for bullish rise towards previous swing highTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPNZD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Expecting price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support before possibly heading towards the resistance which is previous swing high.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpnzd-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-previous-swing-high
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Market Spotlight: Airbnb Earnings Up Next

Airbnb Reporting TodayAlong with January US CPI we also have two big US earnings reports due today with Coca Cola and Airbnb reporting Q4 results. Looking at the latter, shareholders are hoping for a seventh consecutive positive set of earnings results. Given that the market is looking for both EPS and revenues to have fallen from the prior quarter, you might argue that the bar is set relatively low for a strong result today which should help propel Airbnb shares higher.Bullish Expectations for AirbnbLooking at recent results in the travel sector, Q4 earnings have been mostly positive, bar the weakness in Expedia, suggesting that Airbnb stands to post some decent results today. The post-pandemic surge in travel and holidays is helping drive a rebound across the sector of which Airbnb is likely to have capitalised in Q4. Ideally, for bulls in the stock, today’s earnings would come in above forecasts while US CPI would undershoot, creating perfect conditions for a further rally. Still, regardless of US CPI, if today’s results show strength, Airbnb should be poised for a breakout in coming weeks and months.  Technical ViewsAirbnbThe rally in Airbnb shares off the 87.01 level has seen the market stalling yet again into a retest of the broken bullish trend line. However, the stock has found support ahead of the 103.67 level support and while this area holds, the focus is on a continuation higher and an eventual breakout above the 126.55 level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-airbnb-earnings-up-next"
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Market Spotlight: Tesla & US Inflation

US Inflation in Focus TodayToday’s US inflation reading couldn’t have more meaning attached to it. We’ve seen a seismic shift in market sentiment on the back of the surprisingly strong US labour reports for January. With the NFP coming in almost 300% above forecasts alongside the unemployment rate dropping to its lowest levels since 1969, traders are grappling with the prospect of a resurgence in Fed hawkishness. The key takeaway from the report is that the US economy is holding up better than expected and therefore the Fed has more headroom to continue with rate hikes for longer or at higher levels.Market ScenariosToday’s inflation report will therefore be seen as either confirming this perspective or diluting it once again. If inflation is seen spiking higher last month, particularly if above forecasts, then hawkish pricing for the March FOMC is likely to increase, driving USD higher near-term while sending equities and commodities lower. Given that pricing for a larger .5% hike in March is currently only around 12%, an upside surprise today has the potential to drive a firm USD rally as pricing switches in favour of a larger hike.  However, if CPI undershoots forecasts today this should help curtail USD bullishness ahead of the meeting, creating room for stocks and commodities to push higher.Technical ViewsTeslaThe rally in Tesla shares has stalled for now into a test of the 207.71 area. If today’s US inflation data undershoots forecasts, this should see fresh upside in the stock with a break of 207.71 opening the way for a test of 255.61 next. However, if USD rallies on the back of a hot inflation reading today, the stock is likely to retest support at 170.22. This will be a key pivot for Tesla with bulls needing to defend the level to keep the bullish outlook alive.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-tesla-and-us-inflation"
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When is the next energy price cap announcement and what does it mean for your bills?

Ofgem is set to announce the latest price cap this month - we look at what it could be and if it means lower energy bills this year

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/when-is-energy-price-cap-announcement
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ONS: Private sector wages grow faster than expected

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show growth in total pay fell 3.1% when adjusted for inflation.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/605699/ons-private-sector-wages-grow-faster-than-expected
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The IndeX Files 14-02-2023

Equities Firmer Ahead of US CPI Global equities benchmarks have seen a mostly positive start to the week ahead of today’s headline US inflation data. Markets came under pressure at the open yesterday as traders reacted to forecasts of an increase in monthly inflation, projected at 0.5% from -0.1% prior. However, annual inflation forecast to cool further to 6.2% from 6.5%, initial concerns were dampened down. On the back of the recent bumper US jobs report, however, and subsequent stream of hawkish Fed commentary, any surprise strength today will likely see a sharp unwinding of stock prices globally as traders look towards the March FOMC with increasingly hawkish expectations.The FTSE has been the best performer again this week so far with the index breaking out to fresh all-time highs yesterday. Weaker-than-forecast UK wage growth data today should help keep the index supported ahead of UK CPI tomorrow, supporting the view that inflation has likely cooled again and thus taking a little pressure off the BOE.In Europe, plunging gas prices are being welcomed by businesses and consumers alike, helping support economic sentiment there. Traders are already beginning to look ahead to a potential ECB pivot on the back of the March meeting which should help keep asset prices underpinned while that narrative remains in place.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX, framed by the rising wedge formation off last year’s lows, has stalled for now into a test of the 15642.76 level. While 15163.41 holds, however, the focus remains on a continuation lower. However, bearish divergence in momentum studies is worth noting and any break of the current support and rising wedge lows will open the way for a move down to 14703.98 next.S&P 500The rally in the S&P, framed by the bull channel off last year’s lows, has stalled for now into a test of the 4153.50 level. This area has held as resistance since later 2022 and with momentum studies weakening, risks of a drop back down towards 3910 are seen unless bulls can quickly breach the level, putting focus back on 4305 next.FTSEThe index continues to break new ground this week with price breaking out above the prior highs at 7904.7. We are seeing bearish divergence into these highs though while above the 7678.8 level the focus is on a continuation higher, in line with the bull channel.NIKKEIFor now, the index continues to hold around the 27422.9 level just ahead of the intersection between the bearish trend line from highs and the retest of the broke bull trend line. While this area holds as resistance, a correction lower cannot be ruled out.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-14-02-2023"
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NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias is bearish as there is a key resistance level. Looking for a sell entry at 0.63642, take profit at 0.62732 which is the recent swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-recent-swing-low"
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CHFJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleCHFJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistanceTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CHFJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Expecting price to possibly retest the pivot before heading towards the overlap resistance.It's worthy to note that there is an intermediate resistance level where the previous swing high is. Price might struggle to break through that.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/chfjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-overlap-resistance-1"
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Market Spotlight: Kape Shares Soar on Takeover Bid News

Kape Higher on MondayShares in Kape Technologies are trading sharply today as the stock gapped higher at the London open on news of a takeover bid. Majority shareholder Unikmind Holdings has reportedly offered $1.51 billion to purchase all remaining shares in the company ($3.44 per share). Unikmind, owned by Teddy Sagi, is unable to purchase further shares in Kape until March 31st or the release of full-year 2022 results. However, Kape is pushing for Unikmind to be released from the agreement so that the offer can be put to shareholders.Correction Offers Buying OpportunityKape shares are currently down around 35% from their all-time highs, falling as part of the broader sell off in tech over the last year. However, with sentiment quickly shifting back towards bullishness, Unikmind are looking to benefit from the projected rally by taking over Kape. The digital security software provider has seen a strong shift in performance over recent years moving out of net annual losses into profitability and as such the recent decline likely looks like an attractive discount to buy at for Unikmind. Notably, Unikmind (which owns roughly 55%) is seeking a delisting of Kape from AIM regardless of whether the offer is accepted.Technical ViewsKAPEFollowing the failure and subsequent reversal from the 309 level, Kape shares have since rebounded are now trading back up towards the level. This is a key near-term pivot for the stock. With momentum studies turning bullish, a break of current highs will open the way for a move higher towards the 373.5 level thereafter.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-kape-shares-soar-on-takeover-bid-news"
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Daily Market Outlook, February 13, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 13, 2023A Cautious Start To Trading Ahead of Inflation DataAsian equities are mixed this morning ahead of tomorrow’s key US inflation print, with investors hoping that the trend in retreating inflationary pressures persists, however, Friday’s reports of revisions to past CPI data and elevated consumer inflation expectations have investors nervous regarding a potential upside surprise to tomorrow’s number, a hotter number tomorrow would likely spark another rapid repricing in interest rate yields and a markdown for global equities. Geo-politics risk also remains on the radar, with the US shooting down a fourth flying object believed to have potential surveillance capabilities, China has now indicated its intention to carry out a similar termination of an object in its airspace, stating that US surveillance balloons have trespassed into Chinese airspace over 10 times since January 2022. Overnight the Japanese Government is believed to confirm to the Diet that Kazuo Ueda is the nominee to become the new Bank of Japan Governor. Markets  reacted on Friday to chatter regarding his nomination, which initially led to a jump in the yen on concerns that it may mean a move to more restrictive monetary policy. The yen retreated after Ueda commented that he did not plan an immediate change in policy but markets will be alert for further details on his policy views. Japanese GDP for Q4 will also be released overnight and is expected to show a rebound from Q3’s decline.FX Options Expiration New York CutEURUSD 1.09(842mln), 1.10(337mln)USDJPY 126.50(700mln), 127.60(426mln)Overnight News of NoteAsian Equities Tumble And US Futures Slide After Wall Street SlumpDollar Hangs Near 5-Week High As Inflation Data Looms; Yen SlipsAs Funding Costs Surge, China Set To Pump Extra Cash Into Money MarketJapan’s LDP Policy Head Says Monetary Policy Has Room For ReformAustralian Tsy: RBA Review To Scrutinise Communications On RatesECB’s Visco: ECB Must Avoid Unnecessary Rise In Real Interest RatesChancellor Scholz’s Party Loses Berlin Election For First Time Since 1999UK Firms Plan Biggest Pay Rises Since 2012 To Fill Staff GapsAnalysts Say Credit Markets Are Poised For A Gut Check After 10% RallyCrypto Firm Paxos Faces SEC Lawsuit Over Binance USD TokenOil Edges Lower As Slowdown Concerns Vie With Russian CutbackOPEC Expects Global Oil Demand To Cross Pre-Pandemic Levels In 2023Meta Delays Setting Team Budgets As It Plans Fresh Round Of Job Cuts(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4040Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4040 opens 400020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0810Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.06Below 1.0580 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary support  is 130Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 21500Primary support 21200Primary objective is 25000Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-13-2023"
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Gold Undergoing a Correction; S&P 500 Might Jump Soon

Gold has managed to form a bearish flag and approach the resistance at the level of 1820.00. The asset might potentially pull from this level and jump. Currently, gold is undergoing a mere correction. So, it would be wise to follow the candlestick formations to understand what might happen next.American stock index S&P 500 got back to the broken downtrend and local uptrend. It has formed a hammer at the end of last Friday. This might signify a potential price growth towards the level of 4200. So, let’s observe what the index is about to do next.The currency pair EUR/USD is undergoing correction. It might gain the required support at the level of 1.0350 soon. Also, this level is located next to the broken downtrend. So, it is likely that this currency pair will head up soon.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-undergoing-a-correction-s-and-p-500-might-jump-soon"
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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to recent swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential for Bullish Rise to recent swing high TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is slightly bullish as there is a key support level, Looking for a buy entry at 1.33408 where below the overlap support. We are looking to take profit at 1.34706 which is the overlap recent swing high.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-recent-swing-high"
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S&P500 potential for bearish drop towards intermediate support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleS&P500 potential for bearish drop towards intermediate supportTypeBearish DropPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for S&P500 is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for an immediate entry at the pivot. The resistance is where the overlap resistance level is. The support is the intermediate support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p500-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-intermediate-support"
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USDJPY potential for bullish rise towards overlap support

TitleUSDJPY potential for bullish rise towards overlap supportTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support. Expecting price to continue bullish towards the overlap resistance levelIt's worthy to note that there is an intermediate resistance level where the previous swing high is. Price could reverse back down from that area.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-overlap-support"
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UK economy stalls in the final quarter of 2022 but avoids recession

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed GDP fell 0.5% in December but remained flat in the final quarter of the year.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/605695/uk-economy-stalls-in-the-final-quarter-of-2022-but-avoids-recession
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Market Spotlight: UK Avoids Recession By Thinnest of Margins

UK Economy On the EdgeThe latest UK economic data today suggests that the recent optimism we’ve seen might be a little pre-mature. Preliminary quarterly GDP was seen at 0% in Q4, just above the -0.3% seen over the prior quarter. Had the result been negative today, the UK would have been in a technical recession. However, instead, the UK has avoided that situation by the thinnest of margins. For many, this will be a hollow victory and reflects the difficulties facing the UK economy very well. On the monthly reading, UK GDP was seen suffering a sharp 0.5% drop, below the 0.3% decline the market was looking for.Recession Risks Still ThereThe BOE has recently warned that the UK stull faces a recession this year, though did say that the downturn would likely not be as pronounced as previously thought. With interest rates at 14-year highs and with inflation still at excessive levels, financial conditions for businesses and consumers in the UK are the worst they’ve been for a generation. However, with the FTSE climbing to fresh record highs this week it’s clear that many players anticipate better times ahead. The fear is that if the BOE pauses hikes at current levels that inflation might rebound near-term, creating further difficulties for the bank.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe pair currently oscillating around the 1.2195 level, contained within a triangle pattern which has framed the recent consolidation. On the back of the recent uptrend, the focus is on a further push higher and an eventual test of the 1.2659 level next if bulls can get back above 1.2195. Below here, and with momentum studies bearish, risks are skewed towards a break lower and a test of 1.1474 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-uk-avoids-recession-by-thinnest-of-margins"
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Daily Market Outlook, February 10, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 10, 2023Valentines Day Pick For BoJ Chief Could Prove To Be A Heartbreaker For Yen BearsAsian equities are mostly lower overnight as declines in US equities persisted following reports suggesting Fed comments that US interest rates have further to rise. Chinese inflation data for January was mixed as annual producer price inflation fell to -0.8% in January but consumer price inflation rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. The Japanese government has confirmed that it will announce its nominee for the next Bank of Japan Governor on 14th February, market chatter that the BoJ pick is believed to be the more hawkish ex board member Ueda after the favourite for the nomination refused to accept the role, has led to strengthening in the Yen overnight.In the US, consumer confidence has been rebounding after huge declines witnessed last year. The retreat in gas prices stateside has helped buffer sentiment, however today’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, is thought to show another round of softness. The latest sentiment on inflationary expectations will also be eyed with the recent rebound in gas prices a concern.FX Options Expiration New York CutEURGBP .8800(425mln) .9390(580mln)Overnight News of NoteAsia Stocks Head For Second Weekly Loss As Fed Rate Worries FlareJapan Govt To Present Next BoJ Governor Nominee On Feb 14RBA Raises Inflation, Wages Forecasts, Sees Further Rate HikesChina Factory Deflation Deepens, Consumer Prices Rise In JanuaryJapan's Wholesale Inflation Stays Elevated, Keeps BoJ Under PressureBoJ Kuroda: Will Keep Easing As Long As Needed For Price GoalBoJs Amamiya: See No Need Now To Make YCC More FlexibleJapan’s Suzuki: Must Discuss Joint Accord With New BoJ GovernorFed's Foot 'Unequivocally' On Brake, Sensible To Move Slower, Barkin SaysBank Of England Officials Split Over Future Path For RatesDollar Defensive As Investors Remain Cautious Ahead Of Inflation DataTreasury Yield-Curve Inversion Reaches Deepest Level Since 1980sPBoC 3-Day Cash Injection Hits 1 Trillion Yuan To Ease SqueezeBoJ To Offer 5yr Loans To Banks On Feb. 14 To Help Cap YieldsOil Trims Weekly Gain As Slowdown Concerns Counter China DemandGoldman Cuts Oil Forecasts On Softer 2023 Demand-Supply BalancePayPal Says Volume Growth Slowed; CEO Schulman To Retire(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4050Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4040 opens 400020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0810Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.06Below 1.0580 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131Primary support  is 130Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 21500Primary support 21200Primary objective is 25000Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-10-2023"
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FOMO Friday: S&P Flies Too Close To the Sun

S&P Slips From HighsIt’s fair to say that it’s been a relatively quiet week across markets. We’ve seen decent volatility, just little in the way of clear directional moves. Much of what has gone up, subsequently came down and vice versa. Weeks like this, however, are a good time to reflect on one’s trading and plan ahead as the big moves and key catalysts are never far away. Still, there has been plenty happening this week and chatting with traders ahead of the weekend it seems the big move capturing most attention is the almost 3% pullback in the S&P. So, let’s take a look at what cause the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week!What Caused the Move?Shifting USD View on Better US DataThe main driver behind the drop in the S&P this week has been the change in USD outlook on the back of recent US data and Fed commentary. Last week’s December US labour market data showed the NFP coming in almost 3x higher than forecasts while the unemployment rate was seen falling back to levels last seen in 1969. On the back of this surprisingly strong data traders feared the Fed might look to press ahead with rates hikes for longer than originally expected given that the anticipated downside impact on the economy has clearly not been as harsh as thought.Hawkish Fed CommentsWith USD rallying firmly across the board, US markets came off rather sharply. This week, then, focus shifted to a slew of Fed commentary over the week, kicking off with chairman Powell on Tuesday. While Powell’s speech was more or less a repetition of his comments at the FOMC it was subsequent comments from other Fed members which caused concern for equities traders. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari both called on the Fed to continue with hiking throughout this year with Williams saying that rates would need to stay at higher levels for years, beyond the Fed’s current projections, and Kashkari calling for rates to peak around 5.4% at least, above the Fed’s own projections again.Downside Risks for S&PThese comments represented a clear hawkish uptick on the back of last week’s data and raised fears that other Fed members might be feeling the same way, putting larger hikes (or hiking for longer) back on the table. Looking ahead then, the outlook for the S&P will be very tied to incoming US data and Fed commentary as traders look to gauge how the Fed is likely to proceed this year. Further strong data might therefore weigh on S&P, boosting hawkish Fed expectations.Technical ViewsS&PThe rally off last year’s lows has seen the index testing above the 4153.50 level though the move has stalled for now and since reversed back under the level. With momentum studies weakening, while below here, there are risks of a deeper move back towards the bull channel lows and 3910 below. Back above, focus shifts to the 4305 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-s-and-p-flies-too-close-to-the-sun"
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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for bearish drop to recent swing low TypeBearis Preference:My overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish as there is a descending trend line. Looking ofr buy entry at 0.701, take profit at 0.68705 which is an overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-recent-swing-low"
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ETHUSD potential for bearish drop to overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleETHUSD potential for bearish drop to overlap supportTypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap resistance. Expect price to then drop towards the overlap support.The resistance is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-overlap-support"
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Gold potential for bearish drop towards overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleGold potential for bearish drop towards overlap supportTypeBearish DropPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for Gold is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.With price breaking the ascending channel, expect price to drop from the pivot towards the overlap support.The resistance is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-overlap-support"
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Fed speakers maintain hawkish rhetoric capping USD downside

Newly minted dollar bulls after the NFP report did not hear anything encouraging from Powell on Tuesday, but other Fed representatives tried to meet market’s request for hawkish comments. Four Fed officials, who are at different positions on the spectrum of hawks and doves, have indicated that it is necessary to raise rates above 5%, or reiterated the idea to hold interest rate at restrictive level for longer. All this made it difficult for investors to quickly recover their risk appetite and helped the dollar to find some ground. Futures for European and US indices trade in positive territory today, and currencies, rising on expectations of global economic expansion, showed good growth. This may indicate that the markets see the current moment as the peak of the Fed's hawkish communication and are now looking for opportunities to re-enter US dollar pro-cyclical shorts at more attractive levels.However, there is still scope for the US dollar to absorb further hawkish repricing of rate expectations, and a recovery in high-beta currencies may be premature. Markets are pricing the Fed's peak rate at 5.13%, so it still doesn't fully account for another hike after March. The pricing of Fed rate path implies about 50 basis points of easing in the second half of the year, reflecting both disinflationary and recessionary risks in the US. Perhaps the aim of the Fed's hawkish speakers at this stage is to reassure the markets that rates can rise to at least 5.25% and that rate cut speculation is out of place.It's fair to expect that more confirmation from incoming economic data will be needed to convince markets of another 25 bps gain after March. Jobless claims are somewhat disappointing today (196K vs. 190K forecast), tomorrow's University of Michigan sentiment index is probably the only important report ahead of the weekend. A calmer trading environment could return after the morning's risk appetite and last until the main US inflation report on Tuesday. In the foreign exchange market, it seems that it is still too early for the dollar to return to a stable downward trend: instead, country factors and risks may become the focus of attention.The data on inflation in Germany, published this morning, surprised on the downside. The overall consumer price index rose 8.7% year on year, lower than the forecasted 8.9%. This is likely to test the ability of the European Central Bank to continue to resist the bullish reaction in bond market after last week's ECB meeting. The EUR/USD pair may struggle to break above 1.08 level for now.Elsewhere in Europe, the focus will be on the comments of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey when he testifies before Parliament. As in the Eurozone, we have seen a lot of hawkish commentary in the UK since last week's Bank of England interest rate decision, and markets are likely to expect any political commentary today to be hawkish as well. The weakness of the euro confirms the recent fall of the EUR/GBP pair, and the level of 0.8800 may be tested in the near future.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fed-speakers-maintain-hawkish-rhetoric-capping-usd-downside"
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Market Spotlight: Amazon Shares Fall Back Below Key Level

Amazon Falls BackAfter rallying more than 30% over recent months, Amazon shares have fallen back in recent days following a mixed set of Q4 earnings. While revenues were seen higher over the quarter, at $149.2 billion vs $145.7 billion expected, EPS came in below expectations at $0.03 vs $0.17 expected. The company noted a mild lift in advertising spending over the quarter, though this was offset by weaker web services revenues. However, it wasn’t necessarily the weaker earnings that wobbled investor sentiment but a softer set of guidance for Q1. Looking ahead, Amazon forecast Q1 revenues in the $121 billion - $126 billion region, a little light of Wall Street’s $125 billion estimates.Cutting CostsSales in stores were down by 2% year on year with Amazon citing higher inflation (higher consumer prices, higher energy and transport costs) as the key downside factor here. Last month, the company noted it will cut around 18000 jobs globally in a bid to cut costs, this follows previous cuts in November along with a freeze on new hiring as the company seeks to address its balance sheet.Fed ImpactAmazon shares have also come under pressure this week amidst a pullback in US stocks generally in response to hawkish Fed commentary. Bumper December jobs data in the US has potentially opened the door to a longer course of Fed tightening which is causing some downside, especially for tech stocks near-term.Technical ViewsAmazonThe rally off last year’s lows saw price breaking out above the 103.36 level. However, the move has since reversed with price trading back below the level for now. Near-term, this is a key pivot price for the stock with bulls needing to see a quick move back above the level to keep the focus on 123.79. Below here, there are risks of a move down to 84.28 especially with momentum studies weakening.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-amazon-shares-fall-back-below-key-level"
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Market Spotlight: AZN Shares Soar on Bumper Profits

Shares Surge on Earnings ReleaseShares in UK drugmaker Astra Zeneca, famous for its covid vaccine, are surging higher today in response to the group’s latest earnings report. While Q4 revenues were a little below forecasts at $930.5 billion vs $934 billion expected, the group’s full year 2022 results were solid with profits soaring to $3.2 billion from the prior year’s $112 million. Revenues for the full year jumped to $44.35 billion, up from $37.42 billion. Additionally, EPS for FY 2022 soared to $2.11 from $0.08 a year prior.Strong Sales Outside of Covid VaccineThe group attributed its bumper profits, not just to continued sales of its covid vaccine but also a spike in sales for leading diabetes and cancer drugs. Looking ahead, the groups forecasts further sales growth in 2023 with EPS forecast to rise by a high single digit to low double digit percentage. Additionally, the company has cited the reopening of the Chinese economy as a strong encouraging factor for the 2023 outlook with demand expected to increase in coming months and quarters as the post-pandemic recovery continues.Technical ViewsAstra ZenecaThe recent correction lower stalled on approach to the bull channel lows with strong buying taking price back up to challenge the 11342 area resistance. This is a key level for the stock and bulls need to see a convincing breach here to encourage fresh buying. Momentum studies have flipped bullish here supporting the rally with the bull channel top the next target above current resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-azn-shares-soar-on-bumper-profits"
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Daily Market Outlook, February 9, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 9, 2023European Markets On the Front Foot, As German Inflation Increases At A Slower RateAsian markets trade with a bid tone, China indices pushed higher on PBOC liquidity interventions, an overnight reversal in US futures adds fuel to the risk on sentiment as delayed German inflation data came in at a lower rate than expected, markets immediately repriced ECB rate hikes as investors price a lower net Eurozone CPI estimate for January at circa 8.5%. Robust earnings from European stalwarts such as Siemens and Unilever along with takeover chatter as Abu Dhabi Bank are reported to be eyeing a bid for Standard Chartered Bank, all in all this has investors in buoyant spirits at the open of European trade.The data docket is once again scant for the day ahead. In the UK testimony at the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey and other MPC members, Chief Economist Pill and MPC  members Tenreyro and Haskel will garner investor attention. Last week the BoE voted to raise interest rates for the 10th consecutive time by 50bp to 4%, however, the market read was of a more dovish tilt to proceedings, given Governor Bailey’s less than committal stance on further policy tightening, today’s hearing will give for committee members a platform to provide colour on this and to address any market misperceptions they might feel to be in the reaction to their latest rate adjustment and outlook.In the US unemployment claims data are forecast to reaffirm a strong labour market. Markets expect initial claims to nudge higher towards 195k, admittedly still at very low levels despite nascent signs of significant job losses as witnessed by job cuts seen across the tech sector.FX Options Expiration New York CutEURUSD 1.0950 (456mln)USDJPY 128.00(490mln)AUDUSD .6400 (750mln)Overnight News of NoteDollar Flat After Fed Official Comments; Focus On CPI Data Next WeekTraders Are Starting To Put Big Money On The Fed Going To 6%Fed’s Williams Says Peak Rate Forecasts Still ‘Very Reasonable’Fed’s Cook Says More Rate Hikes Needed To Curb InflationJapan Ruling Party Said to Be Divided If Kishida Seeks BOJ PivotFed Officials Signal Higher Rates Will Be Needed To Contain InflationBiden Says He Sees No Recession In 2023 Or 2024 -PBSU.S.-Bound Container Shipments From Asia Plunge As Inflation BitesECB Rates Must Hit Significantly Restrictive Levels, Kazaks SaysECB’s Knot Says Half-Point Rate Hike May Be Needed In MayBank Of Canada Debated Whether To Hike Or Hold In JanuaryBosses Call On UK Chancellor For More Tax Breaks To Avoid RecessionUK Housing Market Hit By Widest Prices Falls Since 2009 In JanuaryCoinbase's CEO Cites 'Rumors' The SEC May Ban Crypto StakingOil Takes Breather After Three-Day Rally As Outlook CloudedFirst Australian Coal Shipment To China In Two Years To DockForeign Investors Start 23 With Record $21bn Push Into China StocksWalt Disney Stems Streaming Losses In Iger’s First Quarter BackWalt Disney To Axe 7,000 Jobs In $5.5bn Cost-Cutting Plan(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4120Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4080 opens 402020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0810Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.06Below 1.0580 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131Primary support  is 130Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22200Primary support 21200Primary objective is 25000Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-9-2023"
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