Investment Bank Outlook 02-08-2021

CitiRisk off sentiment dominated Asia session as market stay cautious ahead of NFP print tomorrow. USD traded marginally stronger against G10 basket with AUD the exception as record trade surplus nudged AUDUSD higher to trade at 0.7368 at writing. USD noted mixed performance against Asia FX with KRW and THB underperforming and PHP outperforming.Downside pressures in KRW as foreigners net sold $362m of KOSPI shares this morning and in absence of USDKRW sellers at current levels. THB continues to be weighed down by weak economic backdrop and persistent current-account deficit even as the Covid situation in Thailand stabilizes. Elsewhere, PHP outperformed to break below 50.0 handle, onshore suspects that importers interest away from us is driving the PHP strength here.USD traded marginally stronger against G10 basket ahead of the NFP print tomorrow. As a frame of reference, consensus estimates for NFP sit at 748k, while the Bloomberg ‘whisper’ figure lies higher at 800k.CIBCFX FlowsAustralia July trade surplus widened to AUD12.1bn versus estimates of AUD10bn. However, further reading into the details showed that iron ore exports fell 5% from previous month. AUDUSD reversed away from 0.7365. Our trader Jon believed there has been some profit taking in AUDJPY and widening of AU-NZ yield spreads played a part. Intraday resistance seen at 0.7377 then 0.7400. Not much in terms of option expiry today, AUD1.1bn at 0.7350 for tomorrow.Comments from BoJ dove Kataoka failed to stir USDJPY, said that in his personal view is that the BoJ should aggressively buy bonds, push down yields to prop up capex, investment in growth areas. No one paid attention, traders were busy with selling JPY crosses since the opening. Seemed that sell orders are scattered above 110.25 up to 110.50, from both corporate and Japanese retail, I was told these day traders have gone short. I am sure they will be collecting near 109.50-60. Not a lot to talk about in terms of option strikes but not $1.3bn of 110.00 strike mature tomorrow.EURUSD is back below 1.1840, dominated by sales of EURJPY. Intraday support seen at 1.1825, our trader thinks this will head higher, especially the EURCAD cross where the golden cross has clearly developed. One big asset manager has set his target at 1.50, which isn’t too distant, we think there is a potential to go beyond. In EURUSD, there is a trendline at 1.1858, should extend towards 1.1900. Not a lot of strikes due today but far bit tomorrow, concentrated on the topside from 1.1850-1.1880.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-02-08-2021"
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Dollar Remains Near Lows; Euro Rises on Inflationary Pressures

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Market Update – September 2

Market News Today 

Trading should remain quiet and confined in the lead up to the employment report. The markets were mixed to open September with the USA100 extending gains to another record high. Longer dated Treasuries also rallied while the front end of the curve cheapened fractionally. The data were mixed and didn’t provide any strong direction. Additionally, limiting action were concerns over the spike in the Delta virus, increased mitigation measures, slowing in growth, high valuations on Wall Street, rich Treasury yields, and angst over monetary policy amid increasing hawkish talk from various Fed officials and now from some ECB members.

• China tech stocks gain 4-day straight – “Buying the dip” sentiment  from months of sell off despite China fires fresh regulatory Salvo. 
• Biggest tech stock rally in record. – Tech stocks power USA100 top record highs.
• Tesla’s china output halted for days last month on chip shortage  – lack if key chips , electric control devices fir vehicles
• Treasury futures are also fractionally higher, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 0.2 basis points. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, USA100 at new record highs, Topix and JPN225 are up 0.03% and 0.19% respectively.
• Australia’s trade data was a positive surprise with the trade surplus reaching a record high in July, but there are concerns that activity will correct in Q3 thanks to Covid measures, after better than expected Q2 data yesterday. If the RBA doesn’t postpone planned tapering it could further hit the economy.
• USD (USDIndex 92.45) extending 12-day decline.
• USOil declined at $68.00 after OPEC+ alliance agrees to return more barrels.
• Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.

Today – Data releases today includes data for Switzerland and Eurozone PPI inflation and weekly jobless claims,July trade report and factory orders from US.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) JPN225 (+0.19%) Crossed 20-DMA , reversing more than 40% of 2021’s decline this week. Faster MAs flattened suggesting consolidation in the short term. The MACD signal line & histogram are falling lower since yesterday’s peak and RSI steadied at 56. H1 ATR 77.68, Daily ATR 398.75.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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USD/RUB Forecast: Potential Jump Ahead?

Good day,The USD/RUB is targeting the supporting zone formed between the levels 71.50 and 72.00. Once the asset has entered this zone, it might jump. In principle, the Russian ruble is still moving in range.Brent oil has slightly pulled back from the upper boundary of downtrend, which is resembling a flag. We feel that oil could potentially drop till the 65.50 level, but it might also break the flag through.The British pound has approached the downtrend. So, let’s wait and check the price movements as the asset is likely to break the trendline and jump. Although the British pound might also pull back and target the level of 1.5370 as well.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usd-rub-forecast-potential-jump-ahead"
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Daily Market Outlook, September 2nd, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, September 2nd, 2021 Overnight Headlines US Weighs Quota System In Bid To End EU Feud On Steel Tariffs New York Region Faces Flash Flood Emergency, Tornado Watch China Pres Xi To Talk On Services Trade As US Tensions Simmer China Warns US Climate Assistance At Risk On Political Conflict BoJ Kataoka Warn Of Heightening Risks To Economic Recovery RBA To Announce Reduction Bond Purchases Delay, ANZ Finds Delta Surge Sees Split In Australian States’ Covid-Zero Strategy Europe Waning Crisis Triggers ECB Debate On Ending Stimulus UK August Shopper Numbers Improve, Narrows Pre-Covid Gap Oil Lower After OPEC+ Alliance Agrees To Return More Barrels DOJ Readying Google Antitrust Lawsuit Over Ad-Tech Business FTSE 100 Loses Tech Star As Just Eat Takeaway Gets The Boot The Day Ahead Asian equities remained flat as investors awaited vital job data from the US to determine when the Federal Reserve would begin to reduce the massive stimulus that has buoyed financial markets. On predictions that the pressure from Beijing's regulatory crackdown has peaked, Hong Kong equities gained amid a continued rise in Chinese technology firms. China's stock market rose, as traders weighed a move by the central bank to support smaller businesses and therefore cushion the economy. The stock market in Australia, which is heavily dependent on commodities, has fallen due to weakness in materials such as iron ore. The price of US equities futures fluctuated. The NASDAQ100 index rose to an all-time high overnight, but the S&P500 index remained unchanged. Trading took on a defensive tone as economic data pointed to a weaker labor market revival in the US. Ten-year Treasury yields have stayed stable at roughly 1.3%. The US payrolls data on Friday will provide insight into the economy as well as a deadline for the Fed's $120 billion monthly bond purchases to be reduced.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby) EUR/USD: 1.1640 (EU494.8M), 1.2000 (EU405.8M), 1.1845 (EU402.7M) USD/JPY: 112.75 ($500M), 111.50 ($500M), 108.00 ($500M) USD/CAD: 1.2500 ($690M), 1.2600 ($640M), 1.2355 ($615M) Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.1850 Bullish above Idles in tight range as Asia seeks fresh catalyst EUR/USD opened +0.26% at 1.1840 after USD weakened on weaker ADP jobs. In a quiet Asian session EUR/USD eked out a 1.1837/46 range Resistance is at the 38.2 of 1.2266/1.1664 move at 1.1894 Sellers are tipped between 1.1860/70 to slow attempts higher Support comes in at the 55-day MA at 1.1816 and 21-day MA at 1.1798 EUR/USD starting to trend higher again ahead of key US jobs on FridayGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.3830 Bullish above. Firmer, but resistance above 1.3800 remains resilient +0.05% in a quiet 1.3768-1.3780 range - GBP resilient as USD a touch firmer No significant UK data or BoE events today, so the USD and risk to lead Charts; 21 day Bollinger bands contract, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict Neutral daily momentum studies - bias lower while 1.3811 200 DMA caps Sustained 1.3811 break would open the door to 1.3931 upper 21 day Bolli band Wednesday's 1.3732 low then Friday's 1.3679 base first significant supports NY 1.3799 high then 1.3811 200 daily moving average initial resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 109 Bearish below Sideways ahead of more US jobs data, crosses bid USD/JPY sideways in Asia after fall from 110.42 yesterday, 109.92-110.12 EBS Weak US employment data yesterday... behind fall, Powell correct? US yields also off highs yesterday, Treasury 10s @1.302% USD/JPY back below 110.09-11 wafer-thin daily Ichi cloud, 110.14 55-DMA Support/bids from area of 200-HMA at 109.92, 100-DMA 109.70 below Option expiries both sides - 109.50-70 total $1.25 bln, 110.00-16 $589 mln Massive $1.5 bln in expiries tomorrow at 110.00 strike Risk in Asia more off than on, Nikkei +0.1% @28,476, E-Minis -0.1% @4517.75 EUR/JPY off 130.45 o/n high, Asia 130.19-36, hawkish ECB view GBP/JPY 151.31-65, AUD/JPY 80.85-81.16, NZD/JPY 77.56-83.AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7320 Bullish above Eases slightly as risk assets in Asia lack momentum AUD/USD opened +0.74% at 0.7368 after AUD outperformed when USD weakened... It traded to 0.7374 early before drifting lower through the morning The low was 0.7356 and it is just below 0.7360 into the afternoon There was no reaction to better than expected Aus trade data for July... Resistance is at the 55-day MA at 0.7392 with sellers tipped at 0.7385/90 Support at the 21-day MA at 0.7298 with bids ahead eyed at 0.7330/40 AUD strength on crosses surprising given weakness in some key commodities

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-september-2nd-2021"
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Explainer-What leverage do U.S., allies have over Taliban in Afghanistan?

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Dollar Up, but “Big Miss” in U.S. Employment Data Caps Gains

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U.S. jobs miss dents dollar as traders wait on payrolls

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A big miss for ADP & significance for NFP

EURUSD,H1

US ADP reported private payrolls increased only 374,000 in August, another disappointing number and about half the consensus estimate of 650,000. Also, the already soft July report was revised lower to 326,000 from 330,000. The bulk of the gains continue to come from the service sector which added 329,000 workers. Jobs in the goods sector rose 45,000. In the services category, employment in leisure/hospitality led the month’s pick up, adding 201,000, followed by education/health at 59,000, with professional business services rising 19,000. Trade/transport added 18,000 workers with jobs in financial activities edging up 13,000. The report reflects numerous headwinds in hiring and portends a soft BLS employment release on Friday, where the SmartEstimate from the Reuters poll is for the Non-Farm Payroll to grow by 726,700 with the range in the poll estimates varying from 375,000 to 1,027,000.

As for the follow through for the NFP data, Action Economics sum it up like this: “The last two restrained monthly ADP headline gains imply downside risk for Friday’s jobs report, though the ADP data remain an unreliable predictor of monthly payroll swings. We no longer assume an “as reported” ADP bias relative to the BLS private payroll figures, despite a pattern of ADP undershoots earlier in the pandemic, given more recent overshoots in April and May, and previously in December and January.”

The Dollar headed lower after the weak ADP jobs report, EURUSD edged up to 1.1845 from near 1.1815, while USDJPY breached 110.00, touching 109.90 down from 110.35. Equity futures remain 0.3% to 0.4% higher, while yields moved a bit lower. Yields are down from Asian session t highs. It’s a modest move, however, as there is a big error term on the headline number compared to the BLS figure. The 10-year rate is now 0.7 bps lower at around 1.304%. It was at a 1.33% earlier today. The rate averaged 1.28% for August.

Still to come today,  the key ISM manufacturing PMI which is expected to slip a whole point drop from 59.5 to 58.5 and the Weekly Crude Oil Inventories which are expected to show a drawdown of -2.5 million barrels.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Big Negative Surprise From the Conference Board. What are the Takeaways for the NFP?

Greenback struggles to take off from the 92.50 support level ahead of US labour data for August. DXY rallied on Tuesday thanks to the outflow from Treasuries market as distant bond yields apparently rose in response to hawkish remarks of some ECB officials. The 10-year yield rose from 1.27% to 1.35% as the ECB policymakers hinted that it may be appropriate to start tapering of special asset purchase programs (the so-called PEPP). Given that the major central banks try to keep up with each other in terms of policy easing and tightening, this were interpreted as a hint that the Fed may be more eager to taper than previously expected.More specifically, here is a statement by the head of the Danish Central Bank, Knot: "The inflation forecast in the Eurozone has improved markedly and justifies an immediate reduction in PEPP, a complete curtailment of the program in March 2022 and a return to pre-crisis discipline in policy."However, Nomura's latest forecast does not anticipate a shift in PEPP until at least March 2022:The ECB is due to holding a meeting on Thursday, September 9 and based on emergence of hawkish rhetoric, there is growing risk that Lagarde will hint that PEPP cannot last forever. In anticipation of this surprise, the euro may extend gains against its peers, given that now the European currency has very low expectations for tightening, since the ECB until recently refrained from hawkish hints in every possible way.Ahead of the NFP, markets are closely watching data that may indirectly indicate a change in employment in the reported month. Among important indicators, one can single out the consumer confidence indices, the dynamics of which is tied to income and income expectations of households. Yesterday was published a report on consumer confidence from the Conference Board, which decreased compared to the previous month (129.1 against 113.9 points). In addition, the index did not live up to expectations and also came below the most pessimistic forecast. We can recall the depressing dynamics of the index from U. of Michigan in August (drop by 10 points), which may also indicate a tipping point in consumer sentiment and expectations in August. In general, consumer sentiment is deteriorating and either this is the result of expectations of sharply increased inflation or worsening income outlook. By the way, one-year inflation expectations, calculated on the basis of the report, rose to 6.8% - this is the maximum since 2008:Source: ZeroHedgeIt is clear that high inflation starts to negatively affect consumer decisions, from this point of view, it is time for the Fed to curb stimulus measures, since it is more and more difficult to assert about the temporary nature of inflation and this may at some point result in a loss of confidence by market participants in the Fed's actions, which is fraught with increased policy costs.The Conference Board report, together with the Michigan report, suggests that we will face moderate job growth in the United States. Nevertheless, inflation dynamics indicate that the Fed will not be profitable to deviate from its implicit QE promises made in Jackson Hole. The combination of these events - a weakening economic outlook and a course to cut stimulus from the Fed risk negatively affecting stock prices, inducing correction from ATH.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/big-negative-surprise-from-the-conference-board-what-are-the-takeaways-for-the-nfp"
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Midweek Market Podcast – September 1

As August gave way to September, the USD came under pressure, equities squeezed higher and Oil prices remained supported ahead of OPEC news, with NFP still to come.

HotForex · Midweek Market Podcast – September 1

The Market Week – August into September 

Another volatile week to start the month; USD remains pressured at three-week lows as economic data reports remain mixed, Equities hit all-time highs again supported by strong earnings and US treasuries hold onto gains even as yields recover.  All eyes now on the OPEC meeting (today) and NFP Jobs data (Friday).

It’s NFP week so jobs, earnings and unemployment take centre stage.  The weekly US unemployment claims missed expectations again, coming in at 353,000, with 342,000 expected this week. NFP is expected to be around 750,000 and unemployment to drop to 5.2%. Although the data continues to trend lower overall, it is a very choppy ride for the long term unemployed.

The vaccine rollouts continue to drive sentiment, but the Delta variant remains a significant concern. A surge of cases in the US and parts of Asia continue to weigh. Over 5.29 billion doses of vaccines have been administered globally but many low-income countries continue to have less than 5% vaccination rates.

This week FX volatility was evident again.  The USDIndex slipped to 92.35 but holds 92.00, and EURUSD tested up to 1.1845 from 1.1750 lows, while USDJPY rotates over 110.00, testing 110.50. Cable rallied from below 1.3700, spiked over 1.3800 before settling back to 1.3750.

US stock markets posted more new all-time highs and continue to consolidate at highs on the back of the strong Q2 Earnings Season. September, particularly the second half, can be very volatile for equities. However, the USA500 now holds over 4,500, the USA30 continues to test 35,500 and the USA100 tests over 15,600.

The Gold price moved up this week as the USD remained pressured and US Treasuries in demand.  The price breached $1800, posting highs at $1823 and lows at $1775. The 20-day moving average is up to $1796.

USOil prices had a volatile week, as Hurricane Ida hit the US SW and the OPEC meeting today loomed.  A rally to $69.00 has retraced to $68.20 ahead of news from Vienna and inventories also later today but remains supported by the 20-day moving average at $67.60.

The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury Note remains very much in focus. A weekly high of 1.3610% on Thursday declined to under 1.28% but recovered 1.30% to close the month ahead of the NFP data on Friday.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /267188/
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Everything you wanted to know about ethereum but were too afraid to ask

• SEE MORE Big Tech on steroids: why the 2020s will be the “decade of the DAO”
• SEE MORE A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: what is bitcoin?

I’ve lost count of the number of times people have asked me to explain what bitcoin is over the years, but I don’t think anyone has ever asked me to explain ethereum.

Probably because, by the time I’ve finished with bitcoin, their eyes have glazed over and they want to save themselves another earful.

But today we ask – what is ethereum?

If you thought explaining bitcoin was hard...

A brief history of ethereum and Vitalik Buterin, its founder

Ethereum has been, by market cap, the second-largest cryptocurrency since 2018. It’s the brainchild of Russian-Canadian programming prodigy, Vitalik Buterin, who first proposed the idea in a white paper in 2013.

Buterin had already been into bitcoin for several years by this point. He first found out about bitcoin from his dad, a computer scientist, in 2011, at the age of just 17, while he was at university (he would soon drop out). He went on to found Bitcoin Magazine that same year.

Just to make you feel inadequate, Buterin is still only 27 and is a billionaire many times over – so many times over that he’s already given away over $2bn in philanthropy.

Philosophically, Buterin is pretty hardcore techno-libertarian. In 2018 he authored a paper with economist Glen Weyl called Liberation Through Radical Decentralisation, in which he “proposed ways to harness markets and technology to radically decentralise power of all sorts and shift our reliance from authority and to formal rules”.

In 2019 his paper, A Flexible Design for Funding Public Goods, written with Harvard PhD student Zoe Hitzig, sets out a new method for the optimal provision of public goods and services, using “quadratic voting” – a more nuanced system of voting that allows for a much more direct system of democracy than current representative systems.

Buterin published his ethereum white paper in 2013. He chose the name after browsing a list of elements on Wikipedia. “It sounded nice”, he said, “and had the word ‘ether’, referring to the hypothetical invisible medium that permeates the universe and allows light to travel.”

He announced the project in 2014 at the North American Bitcoin Conference and development began with an all-star founding team that included Anthony Di Iorio, Charles Hoskinson (founder of Cardano), Mihai Alisie and Amir Chetrit, and soon after Joseph Lubin, Gavin Wood, and Jeffrey Wilcke.

They raised money to found the project via crowdfunding in the summer of that year. By that point, Buterin was already regarded in crypto coding circles as a prodigy.

I remember being invited to participate in that funding, but got annoyed by how badly the project was explained that I didn’t go ahead. Duh!

The project eventually went live in 2015 and, despite numerous setbacks, including a $50m hack after a $150m crowdsale and numerous forks, the project must be deemed to have been a huge success.

The ethereum market cap is some $400bn. Ether, the currency that changes hands over the ethereum network, has gone from below a dollar in late 2015 to $3,500 today.

What is ethereum actually for?

The founding principle of the project was to use blockchain technology for purposes beyond an alternative system of digital money. Bitcoin has its blockchain, so does ethereum – a separate network altogether, using similar distributed ledger technology (aka blockchain) to verify and record transactions.

Like most crypto currencies, ethereum is an open source platform. Ether is used and accepted as a means of payment, but that is not really the purpose of ethereum.

Charlie Morris of Byte Tree likens it to a decentralised App Store. Developers can use the platform to build and publish smart contracts and distributed applications (dApps), and it is a kind of marketplace for financial services (Defi), NFTs (non-fungible tokens), games, and apps, all of which can be paid for in ether.

Hence why it is known as “the world’s programmable blockchain”. It can be used, it claims, to “codify, decentralise, secure, and trade just about anything.”

So coders can deploy decentralised applications onto the ethereum blockchain. These become immutable and permanent, and users can interact with them.

Decentralised finance (DeFi) applications allow for all sorts of financial services – decentralised exchanges, for example, or borrowing and lending systems – without the need for typical financial intermediaries such as banks or brokerages.

Ethereum allows for the creation and trade of NFTs – tokens which are connected to digital works of art and other forms of digital property.

Many use the platform for initial coin offerings, and many cryptocurrencies actually operate on the ethereum blockchain (as what are known as ERC-20 tokens). DAOs – digital autonomous organisations – are taking shape on the platform.

So, all in all, ethereum has found plenty of use, and it has been a fantastic means to play the incredible innovation taking place in this sector.

Will ethereum lose out to its competition?

One of my close bitcoin “original gangster” mates, who in this instance I’m sure would rather not be named, is forever saying to me, “ethereum should fail and it’s a mystery to me why it doesn’t”.

Many feel the same way. The blockchain is not nearly as robust as bitcoin’s; ethereum is not properly decentralised, and the numerous forks that have taken place in reaction to hacks prove this, say critics – they would not be possible with a properly decentralised platform. Too many coins were pre-mined and handed out to founders. Ethereum 2.0 has met with delay after delay. Transaction costs, known as gas fees, are exorbitant (I can vouch for this). At times they cost several hundred dollars, when they should cost pennies. It’s a ticking time bomb, say critics.

Maybe. Ethereum has numerous competitors – Binance Smart Chain, Polkadot, Cardano, Terra, and Solana, for example. Cardano and Solana have both had extraordinary runs, the latter just in recent weeks. Many of these are technologically superior, say critics – faster, more robust. Certainly they don’t have exorbitant gas fees.

But the one thing they don’t have is the network of users. Ethereum has that. It is the first coin the general public thinks of after bitcoin, even if they can’t pronounce it properly. That is what first-mover advantage often gives you.

But that is the market. Everyone submits their offering, makes their argument and price is the outcome. The best man doesn’t always win.

Ethereum is second only to bitcoin. It’s had a great year, on the back of several great years. It’s like silver to bitcoin’s gold – as well as having many more uses, it is more volatile. It often moves later in the cycle but by more, but when the correction comes it gets hit by more too.

In late 2015 it traded as low as $0.42. It went all the way to $1,400 by early 2017. It then lost 95% of its value and plummeted to $80. In the correction of this year, it lost over 60%. But the bottom line is that it began 2021 below $800 and now it’s over four times higher at $3,500.

The direction is up. But for how much longer?

Daylight Robbery – How Tax Shaped The Past And Will Change The Future is now out in paperback at Amazon and all good bookstores with the audiobook, read by Dominic, on Audible and elsewhere.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin-crypto/603778/what-is-ethereum-blockchain-and-ether-cryptocourrency
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Market Spotlight: Trading The US ADP Employment Release

ADP Employment Up Next Aside from the ISM manufacturing print for August, the other key data release today will be the ADP Non-Farm employment change number. The release is typically used as a gauge for trading the NFP release (which follows on Friday) and, as such, can cause plenty of market volatility. On the back of the bumper jobs report last month, there is plenty of attention on Friday’s release, so any surprises today hold the potential for big market moves.With that in mind, the market is looking for a 640k result, up from the prior 330k reading. If such an increase is confirmed this could send USD sharply higher into Friday, lifting expectations for the NFP. This might especially be the case since the market Is looking for the NFP to fall back to 750k from the prior month’s 943k reading. On the other hand, if today’s number misses the mark, this might further encourage expectations of a weaker number on Friday, sending USD lower as a result.Where to Trade the ADP Release?USDJPYThe triangle pattern which has framed the recent correction and consolidation in USDJPY is now threatening to break with price testing the upper trend line. With indicators turning higher here, the long term bullish trend looks set to continue if price can breakout. The key level to watch will be the 110.92 level, a break above that level will put the 111.70 level in focus next and above there, fresh highs.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-the-us-adp-employment-release"
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Market Spotlight: Trading August US ISM Manufacturing

US ISM Manufacturing In FocusLooking ahead to today’s US session, the key data focus will be split between the ADP employment change and the August ISM manufacturing reading. On the manufacturing front, the market is looking for a 58.5 reading, down from the prior month’s 59.5 result. With the US Dollar trading on a weaker footing on Wednesday, a confirmed reduction in factory activity over the month will likely keep USD pressure heading into the NFP release at the top of the week, especially given that this would mark a third consecutive monthly decline.The rise of the Delta variant as well as period of bad weather over the month are cited as reasons for this forecast. However, if the forecast proves to be wrong and the indicator is seen above 58.5, this could send USD higher into Friday’s data. Of particular note will be the employment component of the data, if this is seen rising, traders could well take it as a sign that the NFP result will come in strong on Friday.Where to Trade US ISM Manufacturing?GBPUSDThe latest recovery ahead of the 1.3507 level has stalled into a test of the 1.38 level, with the bearish trend line from YTD highs sitting just above. With price stalled here, any USD strength could well send the pair lower with a break of 1.3676 targeting 1.3507 and 1.3461 thereafter. Indicators are broadly flat here, highlighting plenty of room for any move to gain traction.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-august-us-ism-manufacturing"
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