Sunday, September 5, 2021

Is this Britain’s most successful company?

What’s the most successful new British company of the last 20 years? You could make a good case for Ocado, or one of the rising fintech giants such as Wise, or for an artificial-intelligence start-up such as the recently listed Darktrace.

You could also make a compelling case for a company that we have only recently come to think of as a global business at all: Soho House. With its listing in New York now successfully completed, the company is embarking on a round of expansion that could make it one of the biggest brands in the world. 

Building a new global brand

When it reported its results last week, Membership Collective Group, as the chain is formally known, certainly showed why investors were right to back its recent initial public offering (IPO). Revenues in the second quarter were up by 118% as the group bounced back from lockdown, and its clubs started to reopen. True, there was still a net loss of $57m and it may be a while yet before it turns an actual profit, but the revenue figures are impressive and so are the plans for new clubs across the world, and the waiting list for membership of more than 63,000. With a market value of $2.2bn, if it were listed in the UK, it would be knocking on the door of the FTSE 100. 

It has come a long-way from the slightly ramshackle private members’ club for media types that first set up shop in Greek Street in 1995. In the years since then, Soho House has expanded to a chain of over 27 clubs, each of which generate roughly $25m of revenues. It plans to open another 16 over the next two years, as well as expanding into temporary office space, taking it into competition with rivals such as WeWork. At its IPO this year, it raised over $400m for expansion.

Although it is not profitable yet, there is no question that it has come up with something new. Lots of cities have members’ clubs, and of course London, New York and many others have had the fustier gentleman’s variety since Victorian times. But a global chain, with a global brand, is something new – and could be very profitable if it can be made to work. 

The problem, though, is that that will be lot harder in practice than it is in theory. Right now Soho House faces what is just about the hardest task in business: it has to take exclusivity and turn it into a huge business. The two may seem incompatible. If you are exclusive, people want to belong, but there are not many spaces. Once you become a mass-market product, there are plenty of spaces, but no one wants to join because it has lost its cachet. Soho House could be caught out by that contradiction: it has to expand to make profits, but expanding may also kill off the brand. 

Follow Mercedes, not Thorntons

It is not impossible. LVMH has been doing it for years and made itself into one of Europe’s biggest firms in the process. The French company owns brands such as Louis Vuitton, Moët & Chandon, Dior, Marc Jacobs and Bulgari. It has managed to keep all of them expanding, while maintaining their exclusive status. Mercedes has managed it as well: it sells more than two million new vehicles every year, but a Merc is still a very classy car. Apple seems to be pulling off the same trick. 

But it is not easy and lots of firms have not managed it. When it was owned by Ford, Jaguar produced a series of mediocre models that trashed the brand. It is hard to imagine anyone feels especially exclusive in a Ralph Lauren Polo shirt anymore, or one by Pierre Cardin. A bottle of Jacob’s Creek wine isn’t going to impress your dinner party guests especially, and neither will a Jamie Oliver sauce. Over the years, many brands have been pushed out into the mass market and slapped as a quick label on lots of products. It’s not long before you become about as stylish as Brut aftershave or a box of Thorntons. 

A very delicate balance has to be maintained, in other words. If Soho House can work out how to do that it can build a huge company. Shareholders are staking a lot on Soho House being one of the tiny handful that manage it. 



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Canadian dollar forecasts turn less bullish as economy stumbles



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Zloty set to pace FX gains with rate hike back in sight- Reuters poll



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Saturday, September 4, 2021

Concerns Over Global Growth Push Chinese Equities Lower

Chinese stocks slid on Friday amid investor concerns over growing signs of slowing growth rates in the world's second largest economy, although rally in brokerage stocks on the news that Beijing plans to create a new stock exchange helped to pare down broad declines.Activity in China's services sector fell sharply in August due to negative impact of social curbs imposed by authorities in order contain the spread of the delta strain of coronavirus, a private study showed on Friday.Caixin purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's services sector fell to 46.7 in August from 54.9 in July, falling to the lowest level since the first wave of the pandemic.The financial sector sub-index was down 0.27%, the consumer goods sector added 1.86%, the real estate index fell 0.89%, and the health sector rose 0.52%.The ChiNext Composite Startup Index fell 1.17%.

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The charts that matter: markets shrug off taper talk

Welcome back. 

This week’s magazine looks at the US stockmarket bubble. US stocks are “wildly overpriced” on pretty much every measure, says Jeremy Grantham. A day of reckoning is surely coming, and when it does it won’t just be US stocks that suffer – everything else will come down in sympathy. 

Our other big feature looks at trading biases – the “psychological pitfalls that can part inexperienced investors from their money”. Michael Taylor lays out eight key things to be aware of. 

Read all that and more in this week’s magazine –  sign up now if you’ren ot already a subscriber.

This week’s “Too Embarrassed To Ask” video takes a look at “drawdowns”. They’re an unfortunate fact of life for pretty much every investor. But just what is a drawdown? Find out here

In this week’s podcast, Merryn’s talking to Sebastian Lyon of Troy Asset Management about the joys of a boring investment style, why you shouldn’t confuse ESG investing with ethical investing, plus inflation, financial repression, gold… and much more. Listen to the episode here.

Here are the links for this week’s editions of Money Morning and other web articles you may have missed:

Now for the charts of the week. 

The charts that matter 

Gold  levelled off a little after almost a month of steady rises.

Gold price chart

Gold price chart

(Gold: three months)

The US dollar index (DXY – a measure of the strength of the dollar against a basket of the currencies of its major trading partners) dropped.

US dollar index chart

US dollar index chart

(DXY: three months)

The Chinese yuan (or renminbi) continued to see very little action (when the red line is rising, the dollar is strengthening while the yuan is weakening). 

USD/CNY currency chart

USD/CNY currency chart

(Chinese yuan to the US dollar: since 25 Jun 2019)

The yield on the ten-year US government bond ended the week more or less where it started, despite Jerome Powell confirming plans to cut monetary stimulus later this year.

US Treasury bond yield chart

US Treasury bond yield chart

(Ten-year US Treasury yield: three months)

The yield on the Japanese ten-year bond seems to have broken out of its range.

Japanese government bond yield chart

Japanese government bond yield chart

(Ten-year Japanese government bond yield: three months)

And the yield on the ten-year German Bund was higher too, though tapered off towards the end of the week.

German Bund yield chart

German Bund yield chart

(Ten-year Bund yield: three months)

Copper paused its rebound from a recent low. 

Copper price chart

Copper price chart

(Copper: nine months)

The closely-related Aussie dollar bounced back, too.

AUD/USD currency chart

AUD/USD currency chart

(Aussie dollar vs US dollar exchange rate: three months)

Bitcoin continued to head back to the moon, topping $50,000 for the first time since May this year.

Bitcoin price chart

Bitcoin price chart

(Bitcoin: three months)

US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 340,000. The four-week moving average fell by 11,750 to 355,000. 

US initial weekly jobless claims chart

US initial weekly jobless claims chart

(US initial jobless claims, four-week moving average: since Jan 2020)

The oil price seems to be back on its upward march, though remains some way off its July high. 

Brent crude oil price chart

Brent crude oil price chart

(Brent crude oil: three months)

Amazon slipped back after its recent run of gains.

Amazon share price chart

Amazon share price chart

(Amazon: three months)

And Tesla paused for breath, too.

Tesla share price chart

Tesla share price chart

(Tesla: three months)

Have a great weekend. 

Ben



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Investors must think again about China

What’s happened?

There’s a growing sense that foreign multinationals and investors have underestimated the risks of doing business in China and overestimated the benefits. From reining in tech billionaires such as Jack Ma, to making life harder for multinationals trying to access the Chinese market while staying on the right side of Beijing, all indications are that China under Xi Jinping is increasingly prioritising absolute control by the Communist Party of China (CPC) over further economic liberalisation. The first big red flag came last November when financial regulators suddenly suspended the IPO of Ma’s Ant Financial, days before its listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Warning bells have been ringing ever since.

Such as?

One that spooked investors was the tightening in late July of regulations governing China’s $100bn private tutoring industry, banning firms that teach the school curriculum from making a profit. Specifically, the worry concerns a new ban on Chinese tutoring companies using a corporate structure known as the variable interest entity (VIE). That’s essentially a holding company aimed at circumventing the strict rules banning foreigners from owning assets in key sectors, such as technology – and it’s long been a primary channel for foreign investment. Both Beijing and big Western institutional investors, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, have until now been “happy to gloss over the risks of the strucure”, says the Financial Times. That no longer looks so wise.

What else has got people worried?

Earlier this year China passed a new data security law that forbids firms from handing over any data to foreign officials without government permission. It strengthens the authorities’ already vast powers to intervene in individual businesses, by compelling them to share data collected from social media, e-commerce, lending and other businesses, and classifying such data as a national asset. The New York listing of Chinese ride-hailing firm Didi was a salutary reminder to investors of the political/regulatory risk involved. No sooner had investors put $4.4bn into the biggest Chinese IPO in the US since Alibaba in 2014, than China’s internet regulator accused it of “serious violations of laws and regulations” in collecting and using personal information.

Why was that so important?

The developments at Didi amount to “a shock-therapy type of enforcement”, says Benjamin Qiu, a Hong Kong lawyer. “We could see more control by the state, with in-effect data nationalisation as the end result.” The Didi fiasco was a particularly “painful reality check” for any Western investors complacent enough to think that “long totalitarianism” was a smart trade, says Niall Ferguson on Bloomberg. It has been clear for years that the symbiotic relationship between China and the US is fracturing, and that the CPC’s core goal is not “global economic dominance” but retaining domestic power. As China’s demographics bite, and its growth slows, that task will get harder while the “Cold War” between China and the US gets more pronounced. All that means increased risk for investors and businesses.

How will that manifest itself?

Sometimes it will be in obvious ways. For example, with a new law aimed at punishing Western companies that comply with US sanctions – and which is expected to be extended to cover business based in Hong Kong. That could leave Western multinationals stuck between complying with US regulations and getting sued in China. On other fronts, the risks are increasingly more subtle. Take China’s cinema industry, which has bounced back strongly this year and is by far the world’s biggest theatrical marketplace. But the slice taken by US releases has slumped, according to The Hollywood Reporter – in part because the ban on foreign film releases during the peak summer period has been stricter and longer than usual in deference to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC. Or consider the speech last month by Xi attacking wealth inequality: it sent the share prices of Europe’s big luxury goods businesses reeling (see page 5). In 2021, China’s shoppers are expected to buy 45% of all the luxury goods sold globally, according to Jefferies, up from 37% in 2019. A drive by Beijing to rein in the rich would be bad news for makers of posh handbags and investors are reassessing the risks.

Who else is suffering?

Some multinationals are already suffering from collateral damage. Ericsson, for example, the global number two maker of cellular equipment, reported in mid-July that its sales in China had plunged, and warned that its market share there was set to shrink sharply in coming months. The reason, it believes, is Sweden’s decision late last year to ban Huawei from the buildout of its 5G network. Multinationals in every industry doing business in China “are acutely aware that as the geopolitical environment worsens, all the money and effort they have put into building their businesses there could be at risk”, says Rob Powell in Newsweek. In the worst case scenario, that means confiscation. This week’s uncertainty over the status of Arm China – reported to have declared unilateral independence from its UK-based, Softbank-owned parent – will have added to the fears.

What should investors do?

Prepare for turbulence, says George Soros in the FT. Foreign investors who put money into China find it hard to recognise all these increased risks because China has confronted so many difficulties and come through. “But Xi’s China is not the China they know. He is putting in place an updated version of Mao Zedong’s party. No investor has any experience of that China because there were no stockmarkets in Mao’s time. Hence the rude awakening that awaits them.”



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Friday, September 3, 2021

Sebastian Lyon: the benefits of being boring

Merryn talks to Sebastian Lyon, founder and CEO of Troy Asset Management and manager of Personal Assets Trust, on his “boring” approach to asset management. Plus, why ESG investing is not necessarily “ethical” investing; inflation and financial repression; and the point of owning gold.

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Events to Look Out for Next Week

  • Labor Day – Markets closed in US and Canada

Tuesday – 07 September 2021


  • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – After August’s data such as Australia Q2 GDP beat most estimates with a quarterly growth rate of 0.7% q/q, markets are assessing the prospect for central bank action and it seems GDP numbers have prompted some to ditch expectations that the RBA will postpone planned moves.
  • Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German September ZEW economic sentiment is expected to have decline to 30.0 compared to 40.4 in August.
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Eurozone Q2 GDP was confirmed at 2.0% q/q, in line with the preliminary release, but a slightly weaker rebound from the contraction in the first quarter than initially anticipated. The annual rate was revised slightly lower – to 13.6% y/y from 13.7% y/y, with data mainly driven by the different levels of virus restrictions in Q2 this year compared to the same period in 2020. There still is no breakdown with the numbers, but it is pretty clear that consumption was the main driver as economies re-opened.
  • Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Gross Domestic Product should impede in Q2 and reveal headline slowdown of -4.8% y/y and -1.2% q/q.

Wednesday – 08 September 2021


  • Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00)  Bank of Canada reduced QE to C$2.0 bln per week from the previous C$3.0 bln, matching widespread expectations. Since then officials remain upbeat on the growth outlook, with the 2022 projection nudged up to 4.5% and 2023 at 3.25% even as the 2021 projection was trimmed modestly to 6% due to the fading impact of the third wave of the virus in Q2. The announcement is consistent with hence on September’s meetng expectations are for further reduction in QE to C$1.0 bln by the end of this year.
  • JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. July’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 9.281M, following the 10.073M in June.

Thursday – 09 September 2021


  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The August’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow by 0.5% while headline should remain unchanged.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) Central banks may be signaling patience on the rate outlook, but it seems the ECB at least is preparing to scale back asset purchases again after stepping up monthly purchase levels earlier in the year. Activity is set to reach pre-crisis levels earlier than initially anticipated and while much of the current spike in inflation is due to base effects, it seems prudent to at least start to take the foot off the accelerator a bit. Not just comments from ECB heavyweights Guindos and Lane, but also the minutes to the central bank’s last policy meeting have signaled a likely shift in the tone at the September meeting. Not that central bank policy will turn restrictive any time soon and indeed, the central bank’s forceful dovish guidance on rates should give some assurance on that. In fact that minutes indicate that the argument in favour of the strong guidance on the rate outlook also included the consideration that that would help to take the pressure of other policy areas. The focus is shifting back from asset purchases to the report rate as the main signaling tool and as usually dovish central bank officials try to play down the importance of a slightly lower monthly purchase level, the stage seems set for a shift in policy next week. Ultimately fiscal policies will increasingly step in and indeed seem the better option to provide support during the recovery.

Friday – 10 September 2021


  • Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The July PPI is expected at 0.3% and headline to rise with a 0.5% core price gain, following gains of 1.0% for both in July and June. As expected readings would result in an uptick for the y/y headline PPI metric. August looks poised to represent the peak for this metric, especially given the moderation in energy prices into late-August that implies lean September figures.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian employment rose 94.0k in July, following the 231.0k increase in June. The gain was well short of expectations. The report reflected a lot of the distortions from the pandemic, the lockdowns on the third wave of covid, and the lifting of restrictions. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% form 7.8% previously.The labour situation was helped by reopenings in the economy after renewed lockdowns.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



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NFP DAY – USD dips following big miss for the headline

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose a very disappointing 235,000 in August. But much of the rest of the report was solid. There were upward revisions with July now at a 1.053 million (was 943,000) and June at 962,800 (was 938,000) for a net 134,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% from 5.4% and 5.9% in June. Hours worked were unchanged at 34.7 (June revised from 34.8). Average hourly earnings surged 0.6% after July’s 0.4% gain, and posted a 4.3% y/y growth rate versus 4.1% y/y (was 4.0% y/y) previously. The labor force participation rate was flat at 61.7% and is still well below the 63.4% all-time high from January 2020. The labor force rose 190,000 and household employment was up 509,000 after respective gains of 261,000 and 1.043 million in June.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



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Brazil FX helped by solid trade surplus as domestic tensions intensify



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Preview of August NFP Report: Downbeat Surprise Unlikely to Spur too Much Weakness in USD

The data from US released this week fueled risk appetite, as it increased the odds of a downbeat NFP surprise. In turn, weak NFP report should make the Fed more cautious in terms of QE tapering pace, which is a powerful factor of support of US equities, as well as sovereign debt outside the United States. Higher interest rates on bonds outside of US compared with yields on US Treasuries is a key factor of supply of USD.Here are consensus estimates for traditionally tracked NFP indicators: The number of jobs in August increased by 725K; The unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 5.2%; Average wages increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, slowing down by 0.1% compared to the previous month;Nevertheless, in the current regime (recovery from the pandemic and self-isolation), as well as with the current priorities of the Fed (employment instead of inflation), the main focus of the markets will be on the metrics of population involvement in the labor market: U6 unemployment (unemployed + demotivated to look for work) (decreased to 9.2% in July from 9.7% in August, 7% before the pandemic), the ratio of employed to the total population (58.4% in July versus 61.1% before the pandemic), the level of labor force participation (61.7% in July versus 63.2% before the pandemic).Here, for example, is the ratio of the employed to the entire population on the chart. The recovery is taking place at a slower pace than unemployment and is still far from the pre-crisis level:This explains low interest rates of the Fed, which says that significant progress in hiring is an essential condition for policy tightening.ADP once again fell short of the forecast, printing almost half the forecast (374K versus 613K) on Wednesday. Of course, the link with the NFP has recently weakened, but all the same, unpleasant aftertaste remained after the report. It was hard not to notice the market reaction: the dollar continued to cede ground to its opponents, while risk assets continued to gradually move upward. Market participants were apparently pricing softer transition of the Fed to a hawkish policy.ISM and Markit data released on Thursday also pointed to slowing pace of hiring in manufacturing sector with delta strain impact on activity cited as the key reason of setback. The hiring index in the sector from ISM came below neutral 50 points at 49 points indicating contraction.In the meantime, regarding the impact of the delta strain, Goldman also assessed economic damage from the outbreak as sizeable in its forecast, indicating that high-frequency indicators in the reporting period indicated less-than-consensus job growth. For example, job growth based on Google's consumer mobility indices is estimated at just 400K. Most of the other indicators are also lower than consensus: Since most of dovish NFP expectations have been factored inin assets prices as preliminary labor market data were released this week, amoderately negative deviation of 50-100K from consensus is unlikely to spurrisk assets and significantly strengthen downtrend in the dollar. However, thisimplies that an upbeat surprise may catch markets off-guard with potential forUSD to reverse all its recent losses before September Fed meeting. It will alsobe tough for risk assets to sustain their recent rally, therefore the risk of equitiescorrection with a significant positive surprise in the data is high. With aslight Payrolls miss, the calm in risk assets will be probably extended andsome extra risk-on pressure on the data surprise should allow USD bears totarget August low at 91.90:

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The two key factors that keep driving house prices higher

The gradual ending of the stamp duty holiday in the UK was expected to dampen the housing market down a little bit.

Yet, while the tax started to revert to normal levels in July, according to Nationwide, house prices rose by 2.1% during the month of August alone.

That’s one of the biggest jumps in 15 years.

So what’s going on?

Working from home has massively expanded the commuter belt

When you look at the housing market, it’s easy to get too parochial. We all know our own areas and we all think we know our own countries, so we put far too much weight on local factors and not enough on global ones.

(People make exactly the same mistake when stock picking – for more on this and how to avoid it, you should Google Michael Mauboussin and “base rates” – I also cover it in my book, The Sceptical Investor.)

So all through the current boom, a lot has been made about the effect of the stamp duty holiday and how it has brought forward lots of activity, and how things would probably drop off after it was over.

The holiday for the most expensive houses (in England and Northern Ireland, that is) has already ended on 1 July. Meanwhile, an extended holiday for houses under £250,000 ends at the end of September.

So you’d expect to be starting to see the effects of that. But it doesn’t seem to be making much difference, judging by the latest house price figures, which show prices rising by 11% year-on-year in August – an acceleration, not a slowdown.

UK house price indices chart

UK house price indices chart

Yet it shouldn’t come as that much of a surprise. As we’ve said on a number of occasions, the UK’s stamp duty holiday was just one tiny factor in the current booming market. Housing markets around the world are booming, driven by two main things.

One factor is the expansion of working from home. We can natter all day about exactly how many people will end up returning to the office and for how long; we can debate what has been lost and what has been gained in the process; but one thing I think we can all agree on is this: more people will work remotely more regularly than they did before Covid-19 turned things upside down.

In housing-market terms, increased working from home means that the commuter belt is massively extended. In turn, that means people moving from expensive areas (those either in or close to London and Edinburgh, most obviously) to cheaper ones (areas which are beyond a reasonable daily commuting distance – which in the southeast, at least, I’d say is anything over about an hour and a half each way).

So you have people living in expensive but frequently charmless areas who are suddenly keen to move out to less expensive but frequently much nicer areas. These people are price-insensitive as a result – they can’t believe their luck, and nor can the people selling to them.

Again, this is not just a UK phenomenon. It’s happening all over the US, and I imagine it’s similar in Europe, though I haven’t got the figures to hand.

The banks are now locked in a race to the bottom

The “working from home” shake-out will only carry on for so long. And it represents a rebalancing to a great extent – money moving out of urban areas and into suburban and rural areas. This is not a bad thing at all: if cities get a bit cheaper as a result, then they should get an influx of younger folk, and become a bit more innovative once again.

(This might be wishful thinking, of course – London-focused housebuilder Berkeley Group (which I own a bit of) put out a trading update this morning. Apparently reservations are back to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, rising selling prices for houses are offsetting rising materials prices. So maybe London won’t be getting any cheaper from here.)

However, there’s a second factor which is more persistent and also more important: the amount of money available to buy houses.

Interest rates are extremely low – that’s been the case for ages. People (in aggregate) have saved more money that can be used for housing deposits (the Bank of Mum and Dad might have increased its lending power even if the kids haven’t been able to save).

But the big new factor post-pandemic is that banks are finally starting to throw caution to the winds again. We are in a full-blown mortgage-price war and, as I’ve said before, it’s hard to see that changing soon. Once the banking sector gets the bit between its teeth it won’t take just one rate hike to stop it – it’ll take a few.

Remember that the Bank of England was raising interest rates all the way from August 2005 to July 2007 – right before Northern Rock collapsed. And that’s assuming that rates even rise any time soon.

Anyway – long story short, if you’re looking for a home to live in, timing the market is a waste of energy in any case. But for what it’s worth, I don’t see any reason to expect a crash imminently.

If you already own a home and particularly if you’ve got a decent chunk of equity in it – do have a look at mortgage deals. They are dropping fast. The headline-grabbing two-year fixes at below 1% do come with big arrangement fees – and aren’t always open to re-mortgaging – so don’t automatically think that they’re the best deal.

But if you’re coming to the end of a deal or you haven’t checked the market for a while, then do have a shop around, because you can almost certainly find something cheaper than what you’re on right now.

As always, if you don’t already subscribe to MoneyWeek, sign up now to get your first six issues free.



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August NFP Preview

NFP In FocusThe first major data event of September is up today with the August labour reports on deck later this afternoon. After a volatile summer for the US Dollar, with traders reacting to fluctuating messages from the Fed, all the focus is on today jobs number. The market is looking for the headline NFP to print 750k, down from the prior month’s 943k. The unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 5.2% from 5.4% prior, while average hourly earnings are forecast to weaken slightly to 0.3% from 0.4% prior.Ahead of the data today we have had two very noteworthy sets of data which have muddied the picture somewhat. On the one hand, we had the ADP employment change number midweek coming in wildly below estimates around the 300k mark (more than 600k forecast). Then, on Thursday we saw the weekly jobless claims number falling to a pandemic-era low.USD RisksSo, the stage is set for today’s release and the data holds the potential to give us our first big directional moves of the month. The US Dollar has been heavily sold ahead of the release on the back of comments made last week by Fed chairman Powell. Powell acknowledged the ongoing improvement in the US economy though cited the remaining uncertainty in the outlook and left bulls disappointed as he refrained from giving a clear tapering signal.On the back of those comments, and after mixed data this week, the Dollar is on the backfoot heading into today’s data. Essentially, this means that if the data is weak today, we can expect the greenback to continue trading lower in the near term, boosting equities and risk-currencies. On the other hand, if the data beats expectations today, this could put an end to the current sell off and reignite Fed tapering expectations. However, at this stage it would likely take a firm beat on the headline NFP and solid numbers across the other indicators to fuel a sharp reversal in USD.Technical ViewsDollar Index (DXY)The sell off from the highs above 93.40s has seen price trading back down to test the 92.51 region support zone, breaking through the bull channel. With indicators both bearish, there is risk of a deeper move lower here, targeting a break of 92.07 initially. If bulls can defend the level, however, a rotation back up towards 93.40 is likely, creating some consolidation in the near term.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/august-nfp-preview"
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Market Spotlight: Trading The August NFP

US Labour Reports Up NextToday’s US labour reports are drawing a lot of attention from the market, perhaps even more so than usual. With the US Dollar trading lower on the back of Powell’s Jackson Hole comments, traders will be looking to today’s data to either hammer the greenback down further or affect a bullish reversal.On the headline NFP release, the forecast is for a decline to 750k jobs from the prior month’s 943k. Given the negative margin here, there is room for an upside surprise, though it would likely take an increase on the prior month, to send the Dollar higher. For the unemployment rate, the market is looking for the trend to continue and for the rate to fall back to 5.2% from 5.4% prior while average hourly earnings are expected to decrease to 0.3% from 0.4% prior.Average hourly earnings could be the real key to this month’s data. Even if jobs mark a decline on the prior month, a strong beat on the earnings number might still be enough to send the Dollar higher. If we see both the headline NFP and hourly earnings both beat expectations, this would likely cause the biggest upside reaction.Where to Trade the NFP?USDCHFIf USD does break higher today on a data beat, USDCHF looks a prime candidate for an upside move. The pair has been caught in a contracting triangle pattern recently, highlighting the lack of momentum in the market, along with indicators having gone flat. If price breaks the .9189 level, bulls can target a run up to .9288 initially.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-the-august-nfp"
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