Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish Continuation Key Levels:Resistance: 3.9600 Pivot: 3.6885 Support: 3.5545 Preferred case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 28.2% Fibonacci lien is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/copper-futures-hg1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation5"
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Palladium Futures ( PA1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish Rise Key Levels:Resistance: 2023.0 Pivot: 1945.0 Support: 1808.5 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the pivot at 1945.0, where the 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the resistance at 2023.0, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head back down towards the support line at 1808.5, where the 88% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/palladium-futures-pa1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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Scottish Mortgage managers reassure investors about its recent poor performance

After a spectacular couple of decades, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust has fallen by 40% this year. As its managers address shareholder concerns, we ask if now is the time to buy.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/604911/should-you-buy-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust
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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Title:S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:4173.25Pivot: 3913.25Support: 3751.75 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish trend continues, expect price to possibly move towards the 4173.25 resistance level , where the 78.6% Fibonacci Fibonacci line is.Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to retest the pivot line at 3913.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals: There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-e-mini-futures-es1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation5"
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Daily Market Outlook, December 5, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 5, 2022 Hang Seng & The Chinese Yuan Buoyant On Covid Restrictions EasingFurther indications of curbing of Covid restriction policies in China supported Asian equity markets overnight, with the Hang Seng surging 9%, the Chinese Yuan was also a stand-out performer pressuring the Dollar to print two-and-a-half-month highs. CFTC data continues to suggest a lightening of positioning in the dollar as the Euro and Sterling remain preferred by investors for now. For the week ahead markets will continue to eye the China headlines for further signs of an easing in restrictions, on the data front we have a relatively quiet slate, highlights include US ISM services and European retail sales released today, central bank meetings for Canada and Australia, with both monetary policymakers set to raise rates again, for the remainder of the week markets will eye US producer price inflation data released Friday, ahead of next week's all-important CPI release. FOMC policymakers will monitor this data for further indication of moderation in goods and services inflation. US GDP data is expected to remain positive in Q4 and today's ISM release should confirm that view, other US data on tap this week includes the trade balance and Fridays University consumer sentiment. In the Eurozone Q3 GDP, out Wednesday is expected to come in at 0.2% quarter over quarter, retail sales and German factory orders are expected to remain impacted by energy prices in the region. In the UK focus will be on survey data with today's services PMI is expected to confirm the 'flash' estimate with a second consecutive month of contraction. The BRC will release its 'unofficial' figures for November, which will give the first signs of consumer appetite as we head into the festive shopping period.Overnight HeadlinesChinese Cities Ease Curbs But Full Zero-Covid Exit Seen Some Way OffChina’s Services Sector Contracts At Fastest Pace Since MayChina Steps On Washington’s Toes As Xi Heads To Saudi ArabiaChina PBoC To Reduce OMOs To Avoid Liquidity Excess - Sec. JournalPentagon Warns China On Asia-Pacific: US Will Keep War-Fighting EdgeJapan's Service-Sector Activity Growth Hits 3-Month Low -PMIGerman, French Central Bankers Say Inflation Will Return To GoalUK Faces Recession and Lost Decade Without Growth Plan, CBI SaysBoE's Dhingra: UK Rates Should Peak Below 4.5% To Avoid Deep RecessionOffshore Yuan Rises Past 7-Per-Dollar On China Reopening ShiftBankman-Fried Says He Will Testify Before U.S. House CommitteeGlobal Debt Extends Best Run Since Pre-Covid On China, Fed BetsOil Rises As China Loosens Curbs And OPEC+ Keeps Output SteadyRussia Mulls Banning Oil Supplies Subject To Western Price CapChina Stocks Gain As Easing Of Covid Curbs Buoys MarketsBargains Begin Luring Big Banks Back To China Bets For 2023Credit Suisse’s Investment Bank Spin-Out Attracts Saudi Crown PrinceTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 4000TechnicalsPrimary support is 4000Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4100Failure below 3975 opens a test of 393020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.04TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.05Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0550Failure below 1.04 opens a test of 1.035020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0300 (560M), 1.0445-50 (1.02BN), 1.0500 (728M), 1.0570-75 (1.04BN)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.21Primary upside objective 1.24Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.2250Failure below 1.20 opens a test of 1.193020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.2300 (253M)EUR/GBP: 0.8500 (1.7BN)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 136TechnicalsPrimary resistance is 136Primary downside objective is 132Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 133.50Acceptance above 136.10 opens a test of 137.5020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 134.00 (980M), 135.45 (362M), 136.00 (291M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6700TechnicalsPrimary support is .6700Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6800Failure below .6700 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/ABTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16500TechnicalsIntraday 16500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18000Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 17200Failure 16400 opens a test of 1600020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-5-2022"
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Oil Forecast: Potential Jump Ahead

Oil has pulled from the supporting zone formed between the levels 82.50 and 83.70 several times in a row, leaving very long spikes behind. Currently, oil prices are repeatedly approaching the supporting zone. Hence, oil might potentially pull from the level of 82.50 and jump to the level of 100. So, let’s observe what is going to happen next.Silver is heading up. The asset might gain the required support at the level of 22.30, which is located next to the uptrend. Silver is likely to hit the level of 24.75 next.Bitcoin remains at the level of 17000. It seems that the asset is forming a bullish flag again. In principle, Bitcoin might potentially break through and hit the level of 18500 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/oil-forecast-potential-jump-ahead-05-12-2022"
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US November wage growth remains solid, dashing hopes for the Fed Pivot

US November Payrolls gained 263K, according to the report released by the BLS on Friday. The reading beat estimates however MoM growth was the lowest since April last year.Consensus estimate was 200K, October reading was revised up to 284K. Unemployment level remained unchanged at 3.7% which was in line with the forecast. In the private sector, the number of jobs increased by 221K, in the public sector – by 42K. A significant increase in the number of jobs was noted in the leisure and hotel business - by 88K, in the healthcare sector - by 45K. Meanwhile, in the retail trade and in the logistics sector, the number of jobs declined by 30K and 15K, respectively. Private sector average hourly wage increased by 0.6% in November compared to the previous month. In annual terms, the indicator rose by 5.1% after rising by 4.9% in October. Thus, the pace of wage increases in the United States significantly exceeds the pre-pandemic rates of 2-3%.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us-november-wage-growth-remains-solid-dashing-hopes-for-the-fed-pivot"
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State pension errors – why tens of thousands of mothers could be missing out on millions in state pension payments

LCP launches Mothers Missing Millions campaign amid DWP state pension errors.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/pensions/state-pensions/605567/state-pension-errors
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Cocoa Futures ( CCK2022 ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:2577Pivot:2422Support:2500Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 2577, where the previous high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may go back down and retest the support at 2500 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is located.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cocoa-futures-cck2022-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation2"
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EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1.06680Pivot:1.05085Support:1.03315Preferred Case:The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.06680 where the previous swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci line are located.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 1.05085, where the previous high is. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/euro-fx-futures-6e1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation2"
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Market Spotlight: EURUSD & Today's NFP Release

NFP Up Next All eyes are on the latest set of US labour reports today. With the US Dollar heavily sold in the run up to the release, expectations are primed for further USD sales into the weekend. Indeed, on the back of dovish comments from Fed’s Powell earlier this week and with core PCE seen cooling below forecasts, it would likely take a material upside surprise to turn USD around here.Bearish ExpectationsOn the back of a weaker-than-forecast ADP release on Wednesday (lowest this year), expectations are tilted towards a lower reading for the NFP today. The market is looking for jobs growth of 200k, down from 261k prior with wages to cool to 0.3% from 0.4% and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7%.December Not a Done Deal Tightness in the labour market has been one of the Fed’s big concerns and so today’s data is certainly not a mute-event despite how stoked expectations are for December. Any upside surprise today could still cause the Fed some pause for thought ahead of slowing the pace of tightening, particularly if we see any upward pressure in wages.Technical ViewsEURUSDShould USD fall on today’s data, EURUSD is a great option for trading the USD sell off. With the ECB widely expected to press ahead with a further .75% hike in December, narrowing monetary policy divergence should keep EURUSD well supported. The rally off the YTD lows has seen the pair breaking above the 1.0364 level last and, while above this level, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 1.07885 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-eurusd-and-today-s-nfp-release"
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December NFP: Where to for the USD?

• Markets expect to add more than 200k jobs in November.
• According to the FedWatch Tool, the Feds are considering a lower rate hike for December.
• Dollar bears could accelerate amidst the weaker NFP reading.

December is generally a quiet month for the markets, but there is a solid risk appetite as we head into the December NFP report.

What to expect?

The market anticipates that the US economy will generate another 200k jobs in November, following growth of 261k in October. Additionally, the unemployment rate improved from 3.7% to 3.6%.

It should be highlighted that the 200k more jobs, while good, represent the slowest pace of employment creation for 2022 and may contribute to the labor market loosening as financial conditions tighten.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the main consumer price index fell from 8.3% in September to 7.7% in October.

Tomorrow’s NFP report will focus on employment and wage growth changes since both are important to the Fed when determining monetary policy.

Less Hawkish Powell

FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell stated that it would be wise to slow the pace of interest rate increases. Powell also stated that rates must eventually rise slightly higher than policymakers anticipated in September.

The Fed’s decision to decrease the current pace of interest rate hikes is supported by a slowdown in the job creation process, a slowdown in growth rate, and a surprise fall in October’s inflation, all of which have put the Fed in a situation where the rate rise pace may be slowed.

The Fed’s primary goal is to achieve price stability, but it is not proper to crash the economy and clean it up afterwards, as stated by Powell.

Following Powell’s comments, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a nearly 80% chance of a 50 basis point Fed raise in December, up from 66%.

The prospect of Fed tightening is boosting investors’ sentiments as they look for non-aggressive interest rate hikes. The NFP will weigh in on that decision, and the markets will get a clear picture.

What’s up with the Greenback?

The USD remains under pressure on the first trading days of December as investors prepare for a lower Federal Reserve rate rise.

The US dollar index had a difficult month in November, falling below several key levels consistently supporting this year’s advance.

The dollar’s uptrend has been significantly dented. Still, in the near term, the world’s reserve currency is certainly oversold and might see a comeback in the aftermath of the NFP.

Where to for the USD?

A stronger-than-expected report might support the US Dollar while also attracting new supply for GBPUSD, EURUSD, and AUDUSD and may attract demand for USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY.

Any disappointment, on the other hand, will add to concerns of a worse economic slowdown and impact on market mood, which should work as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback.

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from HF Analysis /638378/
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FOMO Friday: USDJPY Drop Deepens

USDJPY Drop Deepens The holiday season is fast approaching but markets are showing little sign of slowing down. It’s been another busy week across the board with plenty of big moves and key developments to keep an eye on. However, chatting with traders ahead of the weekend, the move capturing the most attention appears to be the pullback in the Dollar, specifically USDJPY which has fallen more than 4% this week and is now down over 11% from the highs of the year printed in October. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Dovish Fed ExpectationsThe main driver causing the USD decline to accelerate this week was the Brooking Institute speech from Fed chairman Powell on Wednesday. USD has been in decline over the last month or so as traders began to price in a shift in Fed strategy. These sales were exacerbated following a much weaker-than-forecast October CPI reading which was seen as confirmation that an inflation top was in and the Fed would therefore soon be adopting a slower pace of hikes with December an increasing favourite for a slowing down date.  Powell Points to December Slow Down This week, Fed’s Powell essentially confirmed this view, telling markets that the Fed agreed a slower pace of hikes would be appropriate, from potentially as early as December. This line from Powell saw USD unwinding heavily. On Thursday, the sell-off received further fuel as the latest core PCE reading, a key inflation gauge used by the Fed, was seen coming in below forecasts.PCE data Cools On the back of Powell’s comments and subsequent PCE data, market pricing for a smaller hike in December has jumped aggressively, now back at 80%. The sell-off in USD has driven demand for JPY which has also benefited across the week from safe-haven flows. With equities markets seeing mixed performances this week linked to growing uncertainty around events in China as well as fresh fears over European energy stores in the face of increasingly cold weather in Europe, JPY has been back in demand. This dynamic looks set to continue near-term unless we see something to sharply shift the narrative.US Labour Data Up Next Looking ahead then, today’s US labour data will obviously be key. However, on the back of Powell’s comments and with the broader focus on inflation, the data will likely lose a little sting. It would certainly take a stark upside surprise to rock the market’s view on December and with November CPI due a day before the meeting, that will probably be the main focus for traders.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe sell-off in USDJPY from YTD highs has seen the market breaking down below the bull channel and below the 139.33 level support. Momentum studies are bearish here and with price now fast approaching a test of deeper support at the 131.36 area, the focus remains on further downside near term. Retail sentiment remains heavily long, adding further support for the sell off.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-usdjpy-drop-deepens"
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Daily Market Outlook, December 2, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 2, 2022 ‘Markets Marking Time Ahead Of Non-Farm Payrolls ReleaseWall Street took a breather following the post-Powell-inspired rally, consolidating above the 4000 level, some softer manufacturing data was digested along with several Fed members who reiterated the call for a focus on fighting inflation with restrictive monetary policy. Asian markets have been somewhat subdued overnight, with the Nikkei the standout underperformer following comments from the Bank of Japan’s Tamura, who suggested it was time for a review of the bank's ultra-easy monetary policy. Reports from China continue to point towards a curbing of restrictive Covid policies, the upcoming CPC politburo meeting is poised to confirm a more reasonable approach to Covid controls. On the data front for the day ahead, the focus is firmly on the US Non-Farm Payrolls release, markets expect circa 200k jobs to have been added this month, anything above this level may be a catalyst for a further pullback in the equity rally which in turn could add some support to the greenback on the back end of its worst monthly performance since 2010. Whispers are for a softer print after this week’s ADP miss, a rise in weekly continuing claims, a spike in challenger job cuts, and a drop in ISM’s employment sub-index. Specifically, the jobs data markets are still primarily in a “bad news is good news” and vice versa setup (but we may be approaching the end of the line in regard to this type of thinking). Noteworthy, when Wall Street sold off yesterday after the ISM miss, 49 vs 49.7 expected and now in contractionary territory, growth and recession concerns were highlighted more than how much higher rates can go after Powell’s speech, most investors finally accepted a 5% ballpark for the terminal rate into 2023Overnight HeadlinesChina Leaders May Signal Policy Shift To Economy From Covid ZeroPBoC Governor: To Support Growth, Sees Moderate Inflation In 2023BoJ's Kuroda: Japan's Inflation Is Expected To Decelerate From 2023BoJ Board Member Calls For Policy Review At The Right TimeAustralian Central Bank Has Traders Primed For New Rate SurpriseUS Jobs Growth Expected To Have Slowed Again In NovemberBarr Says Fed Could Slow Hike Pace As Soon As December MeetingFed's Williams: Too High Inflation Calls For More Fed Rate HikesBiden Says Can 'Tweak' Inflation Act To Include European CountriesSenate Votes 80-15 To Pass Bill Blocking Nationwide Railroad StrikeECB’s Lagarde Sees Need To Ensure Inflation Returns To GoalOil Prices Edge Higher On Easing Covid Curbs In China, Firm Dollar Limits GainsG7 Coalition: 'Very, Very Close' To Deal On Russian Oil Price CapStocks Decline In Asia As US Jobs Report Takes Main FocusTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 4050TechnicalsPrimary support is 4050Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3930 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.04TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.04Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05Failure below 1.0350 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0350 (1.18BLN), 1.0360-65 (1.08BLN)1.0375-80 (334M), 1.0390-00 (1.08BLN), 1.0420 (923M)1.0435 (509M), 1.0450 (339M), 1.0475 (709M)1.0500 (306M), 1.0525 (302M), 1.0600 (579M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.21Primary upside objective 1.24Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.2250Failure below 1.20 opens a test of 1.193020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/AUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 137.601.36 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary resistance is 137.60Primary downside objective is 134Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 135Acceptance above 140 opens a test of 14220 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 135.00 (478M). EUR/JPY: 140.00 (510M) 141.00 (320M), 142.50-60 (706M), 142.95-00 (818M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6700TechnicalsPrimary support is .6700Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6700 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6675 (463M), 0.6825-35 (619M)USD/CAD: 1.3400 (493M), 1.3415 (380M), 1.3500 (538M) 1.3520-25 (632M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1650017100 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsIntraday 16500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18000Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 17200Failure 16400 opens a test of 1600020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-2-2022"
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