The IndeX Files 21-02-2023

Equities Markets Weaker Ahead of FOMC Minutes TomorrowGlobal equities benchmarks have seen a timid start to the week with the four indices tracked here under pressure across early European trading on Tuesday. Yesterday saw quiet flows and limited action with US markets off line for President’s day and traders across the pond looking to tread carefully ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The US Dollar looks to be finding its feet again today after suffering a weaker start yesterday, which is also having a limiting effect on equities prices.The release of January PMI’s today in the Eurozone, US and UK will be the main focus for markets. Should US data surprise to the upside once again (strong recent trend of data beats), hawkish expectations are likely to build further ahead of the March FOMC, which will be bad news for equities near-term. In the UK and Eurozone, however, asset prices are likely to be a little more buoyant if today’s data confirms better business activity in January, diluting recession fears further.The main event for the week, however, will be tomorrow’s FOMC minutes for January. Given the recent strong of data beats and hawkish Fed commentary we’ve seen, the minutes might have lost a little relevance. However, USD bulls will be clinging onto any hawkish details they can find meaning that risks are skewed to the downside for equities prices this week with USD vulnerable to a fresh move higher.Technical ViewsDAXFor now, the DAX continues to hold within the top of the rising wedge formation, held up by support at the 15163.41 level and capped by resistance at 15642.76. With momentum studies having weakened recently, there are growing risks of a reversal lower with 14703.98 the next support to watch if current lows are broken.S&P 500The failure at the 4153.50 level has seen the market turning sharply lower, in line with falling momentum studies. Price is now fast approaching a test of the bull channel lows which, if broken, open the way for a test of 3910.00 next. Bulls will need to defend this level to prevent a fuller reversal lower.FTSEAfter breaking out to record highs last week, the FTSE is now softening a little from those highs. However, while within the bull channel and while 7904.7 holds as support, the outlook remains bullish. Should that level give, there is a bigger support level at 7678.8 which will be the key test of the market.NIKKEIThe market continues to stall around the 27422.9 level. Price has been caught up here over much of this year and, now just below the level, with momentum studies weakening the index looks vulnerable to a dip lower with 26407 the next support to note.

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USDJPY Potential for Bullish Rise to 23.6% Fibonacci Line

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Rise TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish as the current price is crossing the Ichimoku Cloud. Looking for pullback buy entry at 131.622 where the overlap support is, and take profit is at 137.9 where the previous swing high is.

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Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2023Asian Markets Marking Time, Waiting Lead From Wall StreetAsian equities are trading with a muted tone overnight as they lacked a lead from Wall Street given the NYSE was closed for US Presidents Day celebrations. The Nikkei and Shanghai Comp are rotating around the flatline for the session, while the Hang Seng is the standout underperformer shedding over 1.5% driven by regional tech losses. The subdued risk sentiment in Asian trade was compounded by the recent minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which confirmed that discussion at the most recent meeting was around the scale of a hike 25 or 50bps, with a pause not even on the table for negotiation, as the minutes confirmed the board were committed to further rate increases in the coming months, once again dashing dovish investors desiresEuropean bourses are set to open with a softer tone this morning ahead of flash PMI prints for the Uk, Germany and the Eurozone. Stateside investor focus will be firmly on FOMC minutes released later today, markets are currently pricing a higher terminal rate circa 5.3% for July with a 2023 rate curve remaining above 5%, as investors abandon hopes of rate cuts this year. With the US inflation backdrop remaining stubbornly sticky, combined with the robustness of the employment landscape it is likely the Fed minutes will confirm that the Open Market committee are poised to keep the pedal to the metal on the higher for longer rates mantra, certainly the recent price action in the Dollar cements this view the DXY has recovered its losses for the year so far and looks poised to challenge the pivotal 105 handle, weighing on global risk sentiment, with MSCI Index the broadest Asian-Pacific gauge sitting towards six week lows after retreating 3% so far in February.FX Options Expiration New York CutUSDJPY 133.50(300m)AUDUSD .6410(747m), .6730(743m)Overnight News of NoteUS Futures Fall, Try To Rebound From Third Weekly DeclinePutin To Update Russia’s Elite On Ukraine In Major SpeechChina Says 'Deeply Worried' On Escalation Of Ukraine WarChina Launch Private Equity Pilot To Boost Property SectorChina Busy Roads Show Economic Recovery Gathers PaceBoJ's Kuroda: Wages Set To Accelerate On Tight Job MarketJapan’s Factory Activity Falls At Fastest Pace In Over 2 YearsAustralia Considered 25 Or 50Bps Rate Hike, Minutes RevealUK PM Sunak Lobbies Tory MPs To Back Looming Brexit DealNI Brexit Deal Could Trigger Resignations, UK PM Sunak ToldGermany’s ZEW Investor Confidence Set To Continue HigherHSBC Profits Rocket As Rising Interest Rates Boost RevenueBHP Cuts Record Dividend As China Slowdown Dents Profits(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0850Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23600Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to resistanceTypeBullish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to rise from the pivot to ride the bullish momentum towards the resistance level.

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Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500. Nasdaq & DAX

Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500. Nasdaq & DAXTo access today's actionable analysis click here!

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Daily Market Outlook, February 20, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 20, 2023Asian Markets Recover After A Tepid Start To The Trading WeekAsian equities opened on the backfoot given a mixed handover from Wall Street as investors squared positions ahead of the Friday close and the US Presidents Day holiday today (with the NYSE closed today). Overnight geopolitical concerns were once again at the fore, with North Korea test firing an ICBM and multiple rocket launcher drills, this was coupled with lingering China-US tensions as China warned the US on escalating tensions regarding ‘ballon-gate’ the US countered with its own warnings regarding China providing pro Russian support in the Ukrainian war. The Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng were once again regional outperformers supported by continuing liquidity provisioning by the PB0C.Today’s data docket is very scant. Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to post its fourth monthly rise in a row, however, the increase is from record low levels. This is the first of several Eurozone surveys for February due this week all of which are expected to show that economic conditions in the region are showing nascent signs of improvement. UK January public finances data, due early Tuesday, will reveal self-assessment income tax returns for the year. Any indication from this that annual borrowing levels will come in below forecasts may lead to more calls for new policy measures in the March Budget. Down under in Australia the central bank will release minutes of its February policy meeting ealy Tuesday, after raising rates by 25bps at that meeting and pointed to the likelihood of further hikes, investors will parse the minutes for signs of further intentions to continue restrictive monetary policy in the first half of this year.Last week saw an extension of the rebound in market interest rate pricing in the US, this move commenced after the very robust employment report for January, when investors began to see markets actively reprice the terminal rate higher, with Fed officials rhetoric also confirming a sense that higher for longer remains the name of the game, last week's data pointed to a slower decline in inflation and better than expected manufacturing activity reinforced the belief of elevated rates persisting, this week the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core personal consumer expenditure deflator, will be released and may point to another rise of 0.4% month over month leaving the Fed adrift by 0.17% month over month from achieving levels that would return the US to it’s 2% inflation target.FX Options Expiration New York CutGBPUSD 1.1000(400m)Overnight News of NoteAsia Shares Hesitant Ahead Of Updates On Fed, BoJ PoliciesFed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Seen Running Hot This WeekUS Plans New Russia Export Controls, Key Industries SanctionsUS-China Meeting Only Worsens Tensions Over Balloon, RussiaWH To Hold Secret Talks With Taiwan Officials In WashingtonChinese Banks Hold Rates Steady, Analysts Bet Easing To ComeBoJ Viewers Flag Outside Risk Of March Surprise To Help UedaIran Nuclear Inspectors Find Uranium Enriched To 84% PurityNorth Korea Fires Barrage Of Ballistic Missiles As It Warns USECB’s Makhlouf Defends Runaway Economic Growth As ‘Real’UK PM Sunak Forced To ‘Pause’ Protocol Deal Amid BacklashMeta To Launch Subscription Service For Facebook, InstagramDeutsche Bank Criticised By Regulators Over Mis-Selling Probe(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0820 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23500Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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Bitcoin’s Future is Unclear, Silver is on the Rise

Bitcoin has tested a very important resistance at the level of 25000. Currently, it stays still. However, Bitcoin might eventually pull back from this level, undergo correction, and gain the required support at the level of 21500. Yet buyers may help the asset to pull through to break the resistance and hit the level of 30000. In this case, it is important to follow the price movements, that is, the candlestick formations next to important levels to figure out what might happen next.Silver formed a hammer at the end of last Friday and touched the supporting level of 21.30. This level is located next to the 50% price correction from the latest rise. Hence, silver is heading up. The asset is likely to hit the level of 25.American stock index S&P 500 keeps testing the broken downtrend. It has formed a pattern resembling a bull flag. The index is likely to jump on Monday. So, let’s see what will happen next.

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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to 61,8% Fibonacci line

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish as the current price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. Looking for a sell entry at 0.68609, and take profit at 0.65887 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.

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USDJPY Potential for bullish continuation towards previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDJPY Potential for bullish continuation towards previous swing highTypeBullish BouncePreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to rise from this pivot which is the overlap support towards the resistance which is the previous swing high.It's worth noting that there is an intermediate resistance here where price might struggle to break through.

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NZDJPY Potential for bearish drop towards previous swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDJPY Potential for bearish drop towards previous swing lowTypeBearish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NZDJPY is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.If price breaks this support here, I expect price to possibly drop from the pivot towards the support which is the previous swing low.

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Masseria Pistola: rustic charm in Puglia

The newly renovated farmhouse in southern Italy offers a stylish and tranquil stay

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Is it time to give up on buy-to-let?

Buy-to-let investors are fleeing the market as higher mortgage costs eat into rental income.

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Daily Market Outlook, February 17, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 17, 2023Fed Hawks Weigh On Risk Appetite As Investor Risk Sentiment SoursAsian equities declined as US producer price inflation and hawkish Fed rhetoric weighed on investor appetite into the weekend. Treasury yields ascended with the 10yr yield approaching 4% as markets reprice US  rate expectations towards three further 25bps increases by the summer and for rates to remain higher for longer. Goldman Sachs has raised its US rate view, the firm now looks for three further 25bps hikes from the FOMC in March, May and June, lifting its view of the terminal rate to 5.25-5.50%; the firm raised its forecasts in light of stronger growth and firmer inflation metrics. In the Eurozone ECB’s Schnabel added to the hawkish tone from global central bankers as she deemed monetary policy transmission in Europe may require more aggressive ECB policy. The data docket for the European session is scant, Statetside the only print of note is import price inflation, investor attention will shift to Fed’s Barkin set to make remarks regarding the US labour market and Fed Governor Bowman is also scheduled to speak. FX Options Expiration New York CutEURUSD 1.08(455m)USDJPY 134.40(395m)GBPUSD 1.2415(403m)AUDUSD .6740(365m)Overnight News of NoteDollar Rises To 6-Week Peak As Strong US Retail Sales Bolster Higher-Rates ScenarioFed’s Mester Says She Saw ‘Compelling’ Case For Half-Point Rate HikeFed's Bullard Backs More Interest Rate IncreasesECB's Lane Says Tightening Effect Still In PipelineEU Commission Scratches Russia Nuclear Sanctions PlansUK PM Sunak Due In Northern Ireland As Protocol Deal ImminentDow Falls More Than 250 Points After Another Hot Inflation ReportGoldman Sachs Steps Back From Bidding For New Credit Card ProgramsBank Of America Plans Job Cuts In Its Investment BankTesla Recalls 362,758 Vehicles; Full Self-Driving Beta Software May Cause Crashes(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4177Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.0620Above 1.0820 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.20Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25000 - 25000 Target Hit, New Pattern Primary support 23500Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to intermediate support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop to intermediate support TypeBearish DropPreference:We are seeing the price is being above the Ichimoku cloud, Looking for a pullback sell entry at 0.6893 where the 50% Fibonacci line is, and take profit at 0.67395 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.

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