Market Spotlight: EURUSD & Today's NFP Release

NFP Up Next All eyes are on the latest set of US labour reports today. With the US Dollar heavily sold in the run up to the release, expectations are primed for further USD sales into the weekend. Indeed, on the back of dovish comments from Fed’s Powell earlier this week and with core PCE seen cooling below forecasts, it would likely take a material upside surprise to turn USD around here.Bearish ExpectationsOn the back of a weaker-than-forecast ADP release on Wednesday (lowest this year), expectations are tilted towards a lower reading for the NFP today. The market is looking for jobs growth of 200k, down from 261k prior with wages to cool to 0.3% from 0.4% and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7%.December Not a Done Deal Tightness in the labour market has been one of the Fed’s big concerns and so today’s data is certainly not a mute-event despite how stoked expectations are for December. Any upside surprise today could still cause the Fed some pause for thought ahead of slowing the pace of tightening, particularly if we see any upward pressure in wages.Technical ViewsEURUSDShould USD fall on today’s data, EURUSD is a great option for trading the USD sell off. With the ECB widely expected to press ahead with a further .75% hike in December, narrowing monetary policy divergence should keep EURUSD well supported. The rally off the YTD lows has seen the pair breaking above the 1.0364 level last and, while above this level, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 1.07885 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-eurusd-and-today-s-nfp-release"
via IFTTT

December NFP: Where to for the USD?

• Markets expect to add more than 200k jobs in November.
• According to the FedWatch Tool, the Feds are considering a lower rate hike for December.
• Dollar bears could accelerate amidst the weaker NFP reading.

December is generally a quiet month for the markets, but there is a solid risk appetite as we head into the December NFP report.

What to expect?

The market anticipates that the US economy will generate another 200k jobs in November, following growth of 261k in October. Additionally, the unemployment rate improved from 3.7% to 3.6%.

It should be highlighted that the 200k more jobs, while good, represent the slowest pace of employment creation for 2022 and may contribute to the labor market loosening as financial conditions tighten.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the main consumer price index fell from 8.3% in September to 7.7% in October.

Tomorrow’s NFP report will focus on employment and wage growth changes since both are important to the Fed when determining monetary policy.

Less Hawkish Powell

FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell stated that it would be wise to slow the pace of interest rate increases. Powell also stated that rates must eventually rise slightly higher than policymakers anticipated in September.

The Fed’s decision to decrease the current pace of interest rate hikes is supported by a slowdown in the job creation process, a slowdown in growth rate, and a surprise fall in October’s inflation, all of which have put the Fed in a situation where the rate rise pace may be slowed.

The Fed’s primary goal is to achieve price stability, but it is not proper to crash the economy and clean it up afterwards, as stated by Powell.

Following Powell’s comments, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a nearly 80% chance of a 50 basis point Fed raise in December, up from 66%.

The prospect of Fed tightening is boosting investors’ sentiments as they look for non-aggressive interest rate hikes. The NFP will weigh in on that decision, and the markets will get a clear picture.

What’s up with the Greenback?

The USD remains under pressure on the first trading days of December as investors prepare for a lower Federal Reserve rate rise.

The US dollar index had a difficult month in November, falling below several key levels consistently supporting this year’s advance.

The dollar’s uptrend has been significantly dented. Still, in the near term, the world’s reserve currency is certainly oversold and might see a comeback in the aftermath of the NFP.

Where to for the USD?

A stronger-than-expected report might support the US Dollar while also attracting new supply for GBPUSD, EURUSD, and AUDUSD and may attract demand for USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY.

Any disappointment, on the other hand, will add to concerns of a worse economic slowdown and impact on market mood, which should work as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /638378/
via IFTTT

FOMO Friday: USDJPY Drop Deepens

USDJPY Drop Deepens The holiday season is fast approaching but markets are showing little sign of slowing down. It’s been another busy week across the board with plenty of big moves and key developments to keep an eye on. However, chatting with traders ahead of the weekend, the move capturing the most attention appears to be the pullback in the Dollar, specifically USDJPY which has fallen more than 4% this week and is now down over 11% from the highs of the year printed in October. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Dovish Fed ExpectationsThe main driver causing the USD decline to accelerate this week was the Brooking Institute speech from Fed chairman Powell on Wednesday. USD has been in decline over the last month or so as traders began to price in a shift in Fed strategy. These sales were exacerbated following a much weaker-than-forecast October CPI reading which was seen as confirmation that an inflation top was in and the Fed would therefore soon be adopting a slower pace of hikes with December an increasing favourite for a slowing down date.  Powell Points to December Slow Down This week, Fed’s Powell essentially confirmed this view, telling markets that the Fed agreed a slower pace of hikes would be appropriate, from potentially as early as December. This line from Powell saw USD unwinding heavily. On Thursday, the sell-off received further fuel as the latest core PCE reading, a key inflation gauge used by the Fed, was seen coming in below forecasts.PCE data Cools On the back of Powell’s comments and subsequent PCE data, market pricing for a smaller hike in December has jumped aggressively, now back at 80%. The sell-off in USD has driven demand for JPY which has also benefited across the week from safe-haven flows. With equities markets seeing mixed performances this week linked to growing uncertainty around events in China as well as fresh fears over European energy stores in the face of increasingly cold weather in Europe, JPY has been back in demand. This dynamic looks set to continue near-term unless we see something to sharply shift the narrative.US Labour Data Up Next Looking ahead then, today’s US labour data will obviously be key. However, on the back of Powell’s comments and with the broader focus on inflation, the data will likely lose a little sting. It would certainly take a stark upside surprise to rock the market’s view on December and with November CPI due a day before the meeting, that will probably be the main focus for traders.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe sell-off in USDJPY from YTD highs has seen the market breaking down below the bull channel and below the 139.33 level support. Momentum studies are bearish here and with price now fast approaching a test of deeper support at the 131.36 area, the focus remains on further downside near term. Retail sentiment remains heavily long, adding further support for the sell off.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-usdjpy-drop-deepens"
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, December 2, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 2, 2022 ‘Markets Marking Time Ahead Of Non-Farm Payrolls ReleaseWall Street took a breather following the post-Powell-inspired rally, consolidating above the 4000 level, some softer manufacturing data was digested along with several Fed members who reiterated the call for a focus on fighting inflation with restrictive monetary policy. Asian markets have been somewhat subdued overnight, with the Nikkei the standout underperformer following comments from the Bank of Japan’s Tamura, who suggested it was time for a review of the bank's ultra-easy monetary policy. Reports from China continue to point towards a curbing of restrictive Covid policies, the upcoming CPC politburo meeting is poised to confirm a more reasonable approach to Covid controls. On the data front for the day ahead, the focus is firmly on the US Non-Farm Payrolls release, markets expect circa 200k jobs to have been added this month, anything above this level may be a catalyst for a further pullback in the equity rally which in turn could add some support to the greenback on the back end of its worst monthly performance since 2010. Whispers are for a softer print after this week’s ADP miss, a rise in weekly continuing claims, a spike in challenger job cuts, and a drop in ISM’s employment sub-index. Specifically, the jobs data markets are still primarily in a “bad news is good news” and vice versa setup (but we may be approaching the end of the line in regard to this type of thinking). Noteworthy, when Wall Street sold off yesterday after the ISM miss, 49 vs 49.7 expected and now in contractionary territory, growth and recession concerns were highlighted more than how much higher rates can go after Powell’s speech, most investors finally accepted a 5% ballpark for the terminal rate into 2023Overnight HeadlinesChina Leaders May Signal Policy Shift To Economy From Covid ZeroPBoC Governor: To Support Growth, Sees Moderate Inflation In 2023BoJ's Kuroda: Japan's Inflation Is Expected To Decelerate From 2023BoJ Board Member Calls For Policy Review At The Right TimeAustralian Central Bank Has Traders Primed For New Rate SurpriseUS Jobs Growth Expected To Have Slowed Again In NovemberBarr Says Fed Could Slow Hike Pace As Soon As December MeetingFed's Williams: Too High Inflation Calls For More Fed Rate HikesBiden Says Can 'Tweak' Inflation Act To Include European CountriesSenate Votes 80-15 To Pass Bill Blocking Nationwide Railroad StrikeECB’s Lagarde Sees Need To Ensure Inflation Returns To GoalOil Prices Edge Higher On Easing Covid Curbs In China, Firm Dollar Limits GainsG7 Coalition: 'Very, Very Close' To Deal On Russian Oil Price CapStocks Decline In Asia As US Jobs Report Takes Main FocusTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 4050TechnicalsPrimary support is 4050Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3930 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.04TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.04Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05Failure below 1.0350 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0350 (1.18BLN), 1.0360-65 (1.08BLN)1.0375-80 (334M), 1.0390-00 (1.08BLN), 1.0420 (923M)1.0435 (509M), 1.0450 (339M), 1.0475 (709M)1.0500 (306M), 1.0525 (302M), 1.0600 (579M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.21Primary upside objective 1.24Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.2250Failure below 1.20 opens a test of 1.193020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/AUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 137.601.36 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary resistance is 137.60Primary downside objective is 134Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 135Acceptance above 140 opens a test of 14220 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 135.00 (478M). EUR/JPY: 140.00 (510M) 141.00 (320M), 142.50-60 (706M), 142.95-00 (818M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6700TechnicalsPrimary support is .6700Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6700 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6675 (463M), 0.6825-35 (619M)USD/CAD: 1.3400 (493M), 1.3415 (380M), 1.3500 (538M) 1.3520-25 (632M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1650017100 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsIntraday 16500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18000Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 17200Failure 16400 opens a test of 1600020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-2-2022"
via IFTTT

Market Update – December 2 – USD holds at lows & Stocks & Highs Ahead of NFP

• The USD Index holds at lows not seen since August & June at 104.50 and significantly below the 200-day MA at 105.40. Weaker PCE inflation, lower JOLTS numbers, but tempered by a miss for Weekly Claims all added to pressure for yields too, the 2/10 yr remains inverted by 71 bps. Stocks finished flat, Asian markets also flat except Nikkei (-1.59%) as JPY soars. All eyes on NFP; Consensus is a headline of 200k, less than 120k-150k and the USD could slip further, over 250-300k could lift the Greenback.
• EUR – broke over key psychological 1.0500 and holds at 5-mth highs at 1.0530 now. 
• JPY – collapsed to under 135.00 today and trades at 134.60 from 139.85 on Wednesday, hitting Japanese stocks. 
• GBP – Sterling rallied again to breach 1.2300, briefly and post 5-month highs. Trades at 1.2260 now. 
• Stocks – Wall Street held on to Wednesday’s gains closing flat – US500 -3.54 (-0.09%)  4076, FUTS trades at 4076 now. 

• USOil – Rallied again (4 consecutive days) to breach $83.00 before cooling to $81.25 now. OPEC meet over weekend and into Monday possibly  
• Gold – Rallied to and broke the key $1800 and holds at $1802 now.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue, but a weaker USD means it holds at 17k.

Today – US & Canadian Jobs Reports, EZ Producer Prices, Speakers from ECB’s Lagarde & de Guindos, Fed’s Barkin & Evans.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.52%) rallied again to test 0.6400 today from 0.6300 yesterday and lows on Monday at 0.6150. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling,  RSI 69.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.0083.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /638259/
via IFTTT

Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:3.9600Pivot:3.6885Support:3.5545Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 28.2% Fibonacci lien is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/copper-futures-hg1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
via IFTTT

3 emerging-market stocks to buy now

The top emerging-market stocks to buy now, according to Union Bancaire Privée’s Eli Koen.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605558/3-emerging-market-stocks-to-buy-now
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, December 1, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 1, 2022 ‘Powell Points To Moderating The Pace Of Rate Rises, Santa Rally To Start?’Asian equity markets took their lead from the late surge on Wall Street, Fed Chair Powell delivered a speech on the economy, inflation and employment, during which he suggested it made sense to consider slowing the pace of rate hikes in the US, and highlighting that he didn't want to fall foul of over tightening, risk appetite abounded on the back of these comment, the SP500 over 150 points, the Dollar and US treasury yields sagged. Overnight, reports suggested that China may be softening its stance on Covid restrictions, data out of China also showed glimmers of hope with an improvement in Caxian manufacturing, up from 49.2 to 49.4. This morning’s UK Nationwide house price index fell for the second month in a row as buyers remain sidelined due to the negative impact of rate rises. In Germany retail sales data showed a sharper than expected fall ahead of the all important holiday shopping season.On the data front for the day ahead, the focus in the UK and Eurozone will be on PMI manufacturing data, flash reading have indicated that both regions are likely to remain in contractionary territory, completing and fifth month of depressed readings, this data will likely also confirm fears of negative Q4 GDP prints for both economies, however, on the positive side of the ledger their are nascent signs of the potential for peak inflationary pressures. In the US markets are poised for PCE deflator data which is expected to confirm the signal from October CPI, that inflation has started to slow. US ISM manufacturing data is expected to show activity continuing to slow, but markets expect it to hold the critical 50 level, representing contraction below, expansion above. The next major focus for markets will be tomorrow’s all important non Farm Payrolls data, any signs of deterioration in the employment landscape will likely be taken positively by markets based on the ‘bad news, good news’ dichotomy, with markets seeing weak data as supporting the potential for a Fed pivot on rate rises.Overnight HeadlinesFed's Powell Signals Fed Prepared To Slow Rate-Rise Pace In DecemberFed's Cook Says Smaller Rate Moves May Be Prudent Given LagsUS Economic Growth Slowed This Fall, Fed’s Beige Book SaysUS House Votes To Block Rail Strike, Mandate Paid Sick LeaveBeijing City To Let Some Low-Risk Covid Patients Home IsolateBeijing Sees Record 5,006 New Infections As Outbreak PersistsChina's Factory Activity Shrinks In Nov Amid Widespread Covid CurbsJapan Firms Rising Capex Fuels Hopes For Smaller GDP Contraction In Q3Japan's Factory Activity Shrinks For First Time Nearly 2 YearsBoJ Policymaker Vows To Keep Ultra-Low Rates Until Wages Perk UpDollar Sinks To 3-Month Low Vs Yen As Powell Says Fed To Go SlowOil Dips On OPEC+ Uncertainty; Easing China Covid Curbs Cap DeclinesUS Stocks Record First Back-To-Back Monthly Gains Since 2021Chinese Stocks Add To Historic Rally As Reopening Signs GrowTesla Is Planning A Massive Output Out Of Giga Texas In Q1 2023Musk Says Apple Isn’t Removing Twitter App, Easing StandoffTSMC Plans To Make More Advanced Chips In US At Urging Of AppleTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 4050TechnicalsPrimary support is 4050Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3930 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0340TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0340Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0485Failure below 1.03 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: EUR/USD: 1.0300-10 (1.58BLN), 1.0350 (393M), 1.0385 (256M), 1.0400 (275M), 1.0450 (212M), 1.0500-05 (556M) (477M), 1.0525 (246M), 1.0550 (261M), 1.0600 (1.2BLN)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1950TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1950Primary upside objective 1.22Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.21Failure below 1.19 opens a test of 1.177020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1890 (309M), 1.1990-00 (359M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 1401.36 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary resistance is 140Primary downside objective is 135Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 136Acceptance above 140 opens a test of 14220 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 137.00 (215M), 137.50 (250M), 137.90 (290M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650TechnicalsPrimary support is .6650Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6660 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6800 (300M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1650017100 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsIntraday 16500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18000Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 17200Failure 16400 opens a test of 1600020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-1-2022"
via IFTTT

The Crude Chronicles - Episode 165

Oil Traders Cut Longs Last WeekThe latest CFTC COT institutional positioning report shows that oil traders reduced their net long positions last week. Total upside exposure was cut to 252k contracts from around 273k contracts prior. The downward reduction reflects a renewed sense of caution in the market amidst news of fresh lockdowns in China which were seen hurting the demand outlook for oil and commodities.China Protests Subside At the start of the week, oil prices were knocked lower as news of protests and violent clashes across China added further concern to the outlook there. Protestors took to the streets in the biggest show of civil disobedience since the Tiananmen square protests in 1989. Protests and clashes lasted several days before calming into the end of the week as restrictions were lifted in some areas, raising hopes of a forthcoming shift in the government’s zero covid policy.Weaker USD Lifts Oil Across the week, crude prices have also been helped by weakness in the US Dollar. USD has been on the decline recently with traders eagerly looking to pick a top in anticipation of a shift in Fed strategy on rates. On Wednesday, fed chairman Powell confirmed that such a shift will likely take place at the December meeting. Powell’s comments sent USD tumbling lower still, helping bolster oil prices and risk markets in general. OPEC Meeting In Focus Looking ahead, the key focus for oil markets now will be the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. There has been plenty of speculation over whether the group will announce fresh measures. Last week, rumours of a potential production hike sent prices tumbling before they reversed higher as OPEC denied the comments. Indeed, with prices still near lows it would seem the risks are more likely skewed to the upside. If OPEC refrains from any action at the meeting, oil prices will stay tied to USD flows and incoming China news which should keep a mild positive bias under prices. However, any surprise further reduction in output would help firmly lift oil prices near-term.Technical ViewsCrude OilThe rally off the lows in oil sets up a potential double bottom against the 76.49 lows printed in September. With momentum studies turning higher, there is room for a continued reversal north if bulls can get back above the current 81.40 resistance. Above there, 85.53 is the key level to watch, opening the way for a higher run towards 93.32 if broken.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-165"
via IFTTT

Oil Prices Surge, but for how Long?

Bitcoin has tested the flag and jumped above the level of 17000. The price of Bitcoin might potentially pull back from a very important resistance at the level of 18500 and drop. Should Bitcoin manage to break the level of 18500 through, it might jump again. So, let’s observe what is about to happen next.Silver has pulled from the broken range. The asset is heading north now. Silver will have to face the resistance at the level of 24.75 and pull back. Although in this case, this would be a mere temporary correction. After that, silver is likely to break this level through and jump.Brent oil has pulled from the lower boundary of the range 83.00 and the broken downtrend and jumped to the opposite trendline of the horizontal range. The oil won’t be able to instantly break the resistance area formed between the levels 98.50 and 100.00. Hence, the asset is likely to pull back from this area and drop. Here it will be important to watch for the price movements next to the resistance area to understand what is about to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/oil-prices-surge-but-for-how-long"
via IFTTT

Market Update – December 1 – Powell Sparks Stock & Treasury Rally & Sinking USD

• The USD Index has tanked to 105.30 lows today from over 107.10 as Chair Powell more or less confirmed a 50bp hike at the next FED meeting, was sanguine about the terminal rate being over 5% and reiterated (again) that the fight to bring down inflation was far from over. He was as Hawkish as had been expected.  Stocks & Treasuries ripped higher with optimism about China’s reopening prospects even after mixed US data yesterday.
• EUR – retakes 1.0450 from under 1.0300 lows yesterday..  
• JPY – collapsed to under 136.00 today from 139.85 highs yesterday – 
• GBP – Sterling rallied over 200 ppips from  1.1900 support and lows to 1.2110 now.
• Stocks – Wall Street erupted higher 2.18%-4.41% (NASDAQ best performer) – US500 +122.48 (+3.09%) closed over 4000 at 4080, has gained 13.8% in 2 months  and is over it’s 200 MA first time in 7 months. FUTS trades at 4085 now. 

• USOil – Rallied to $81.50 and trades at $80.00 now. Inventories showed a huge 12.6m drawdown. 
• Gold – Rallied to $1780 from $1745 lows, trades at $1776 now.     
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue, SFB “I didn’t try to commit fraud”.. Weaker USD takes it over 17K. 

Today – German Retail Sales, EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM, Weekly Claims, PCE Price Index, EU Council President Michel visits China, Speeches from Fed’s Barr, Bowman & Logan, ECB’s Lane & Elderson

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.57%) rallied from under 0.6200 yesterday and trades at 0.6320 now, next resistance at 0.6350. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising,  RSI 65.00 & falling having been OB, H1 ATR 0.00203, Daily ATR 0.0083.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /637685/
via IFTTT

Oil prices boosted by rumours around OPEC+ production cuts

Crude oil managed to rally slightly yesterday, supported by rumours of production cuts by OPEC+ masking concerns of demand shortages, as China is still implementing COVID-19-related activity restrictions. USOil closed higher in the $78.83 per barrel area, after briefly touching the $79.60 per barrel area and trades above the key $80.00 level today (Wednesday) at $80.20. 

A slightly stronger Dollar did not weigh on oil prices as the in-built support from Monday still remained, when OPEC+ delegates said the group could consider deeper crude output supply cuts when they meet later, if needed to balance supply and demand.

Of course, the rise in oil prices was not without support, after China said it would support vaccinations among its senior citizens, a move that would lead to an easing of pandemic restrictions and a faster reopening of the economy.

Concerns over China’s energy demand have continued to weaken crude oil prices in recent times. China reported a record 38,808 new Covid infections on Sunday, which could lead to more pandemic lockdowns curbing economic growth and energy demand. Widespread protests, however, could pressure the government to rethink its Zero-Covid policy.

OPEC+ will meet on 4 December; they have agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day throughout 2023.

Technical Overview

Total oil price gains from January 2022 have been paid, in Monday’s trading. USOil’s January 2022 opening price stands at 75.37, while the second peak 121.29 pullback recorded a low price of 73.61 in Monday’s trading (28/11) which saw a divergence between the low price and the Oscillation indicator. Technically, the price still has the potential to test the 50% FR retracement of the 80.09 and 126.33 pullback lows, if the price remains below the recent neckline at 81.23. Furthermore, the price is seen to be still below the 200-day EMA, although the oversold sign is a technical indicator that could be considered.

USOIL, H4

Intraday bias looks neutral again, below 80.00, and more in anticipation of the rumours circulating regarding a possible production cut by OPEC+. Trading above the 81.23 neckline could bring oil to test 92.88, conversely a move below the recent low would only confirm concerns that China’s economic growth is still in the red and bring the possibility of prices to test the 70.00 level.

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

from HF Analysis /637347/
via IFTTT

Help your portfolio take off with helium

Dominic Frisby looks at the coldest substance on earth, helium, and explains why now’s the time to buy.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/605554/invest-in-helium
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, November 30, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 30, 2022 ‘Markets Await Fed Chair Powell’s Speech This Evening...’Wall Street witnessed another intraday sell-off on the back of adverse OPEC headlines that suggested the cartel will leave output unchanged, while markets were anticipating a potential cut in production at their upcoming meeting given the global growth impact of China's ongoing Covid crisis. Asian equity markets and US futures staged another rebound overnight as investors continue to bet on an eventual China reopening and anticipated supportive policy measures, however, data overnight suggested that the Chinese economy continues to be impacted by Covid with factory and services data weakening further into contractionary territory. In the UK data released this morning showed a further economic decline with the Lloyds Business Barometer falling again in November and the British Retail Consortium showing a further increase in shop price inflation, with a notable surge in food price inflation to an eye-watering 12.4% year over year.For the day ahead, in the Eurozone investors will be focused on CPI, with markets braced for a continuation of double-digit levels of inflation, although, a softening from the 10.6% print in October to 10.4% for November is expected, the first decline in 17 months as a result of the ECB's record rate increases in recent months. In the US markets will eye GDP data which is expected to print a positive 2.7% for Q3, while ADP employment data is expected to confirm further tightness in the labour market ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, however, these releases will play second fiddle today to FOMC Chair Powell, who is due to give remarks this evening on the economic outlook and the US employment situation. His comment will be parsed by investors for clues as to the rate path trajectory and hints as to the terminal level for interest rates in the US, given the recent hawkishness and suggestions by Fed officials of a 5-7% target zone, further confirmation of this hawkish view will likely weigh on risk sentiment.Overnight HeadlinesChina Economic Activity Falls As Covid Cases Surge To RecordIMF Chief Flags Possible Downgrade In China's GDP ForecastJapan Factory Output Falls Again On Global Slowdown, Weak Chip DemandAustralia Monthly Inflation Slows In October, Hints At Possible PeakUS House Plans To Move Fast To Avert Rail Strike Despite ObjectionsInflation In UK Shops Rises To Highest Level On RecordDollar Near One-Week High As Traders Prepare For Powell, Payrolls TestsOil Rises A Third Day On OPEC+ Cut Chatter, Falling StockpilesOPEC+ Leans Toward Maintaining Flat Production, Delegates SayChevron To Send First Venezuelan Crude Shipment To US By Late DecemberAsia Stocks Choppy As Investors Cautious After Disappointing China DataChinese City Hosting Key iPhone Plant Lifts Covid LockdownHPE Projects Sales That Top Estimates On Office UpgradesCyber Monday Sets Sales Record As Shoppers Splurge On Toys, ElectronicsTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3930/40TechnicalsPrimary support is 3930/40Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3930 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0340TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0340Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0485Failure below 1.03 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0250 (493M), 1.0290-00 (1.32BLN), 1.0330 (367M) 1.0340-50 (705M), 1.0370-80 (1.11BLN), 1.0405-15 (800M) 1.0420-25 (619M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1950TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1950Primary upside objective 1.22Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.21Failure below 1.19 opens a test of 1.177020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.2050 (941M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 140TechnicalsPrimary resistance is 140Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 142.20 opens a test of 14320 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 138.50 (457M), 139.00 (295M), 140.00 (270M), 140.25 (810M)EUR/JPY: 140.00 (470M), 144.00 (290M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650TechnicalsPrimary support is .6650Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6660 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6600 (577M), 0.6645 (217M), 0.6700 (254M), 0.6735 (708M) 0.6775 (331M)NZD/USD: 0.6300 (270M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16100TechnicalsIntraday 16100 is primary resistancePrimary upside objective is 17100Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 16750Failure 16000 opens a test of 1550020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-november-30-2022"
via IFTTT